Market outlook in January and recommendation of top ten gold stocks
In terms of economic data, the PMI in December was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reaching the second critical point for two consecutive months, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continued to rise. Among them, the high-tech manufacturing industry maintained rapid growth, and the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry were 54.0%, 51.6% and 51.1% respectively, all of which continued to reach the second critical point of high school, and the industry maintained expansion. At present, China's economy has generally maintained a recovery trend. With the intensification of a series of stable economic development policies such as ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and bailing out poor enterprises, the prices of some bulk commodities have fallen, and the cost pressure of middle and lower reaches enterprises has eased. It is suggested that the focus of investment should gradually shift to middle and lower reaches, paying attention to fast-growing hard science and technology industries such as high-tech manufacturing.
In terms of policy, recently, many ministries and commissions have intensively released the 14th five year plan for the science and technology industry, specifically targeting the fields of intelligent manufacturing, national informatization, medical equipment industry, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, digital transportation and raw material industry.
At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform are in-depth promoted, the global competition in science and technology and industry is becoming more intense, and the strategic game between big countries further focuses on the manufacturing industry. In the future, China's science and technology industry will follow the two main lines of independent control and innovation leadership. With the support of top-level policies, the investment opportunities in subdivided science and technology fields highlighted in the 14th five year plan deserve attention.
In terms of performance, at present, the performance prediction rate of A-share annual report reaches 81.51%, with a total of 97 enterprises, including many enterprises in pharmaceutical, biological, electronic, chemical and mechanical equipment industries. In terms of performance growth, based on the average growth rate of net profit in the performance forecast, the net profit of 20 companies increased by more than 100%, and the net profit of 15 companies increased by between 50% and 100%. The performance growth is expected to double, and the stocks are mainly concentrated in high-profile industries such as chemical, pharmaceutical and electronics.
At the market level, from historical experience, A-Shares have a good start and the market can be expected. According to statistics, the Shanghai stock index rose or fell after the new year's Day holiday in the past decade, and the rising probability is large, especially the rising probability of the Shanghai stock index in the week after new year's day reaches 80%. Specifically, in the past 10 years, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising in the week after the new year's Day holiday reached 80%, with an average increase of 2.27%; In the following month, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising reached 60%, with an average increase of 1.04%. Specifically, at the industry level, the industries with high rise probability in January after new year's day in the past decade are national defense and military industry, basic chemical industry, steel, electronics, household appliances, etc., with an increase probability of more than 60%.
The trading of A-Shares ended in 2021. The Shanghai index, Shenzhen Component Index and gem index rose by 4.8%, 2.7% and 12% respectively for the whole year, all rising for three consecutive years. At the same time, the annual turnover of A-Shares in 2021 has exceeded the level during the bull market in 2015, reaching a record high. We believe that it is mainly affected by the acceleration of residents' wealth into the market and the stimulation of quantitative transaction growth. It is expected that the daily average turnover of trillion is expected to become the new normal of the market and A-Shares will reach a new level in the future. We believe that with the support of the gradual implementation of the economic data recovery superposition policy and the performance level, A-Shares are expected to make a good start in January. Investors are advised to focus on three main investment opportunities:
1) Investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector with favorable policies. Recently, many ministries and commissions have intensively released the 14th five year plan for science and technology industry, specifically targeting the fields of intelligent manufacturing, national informatization, medical equipment industry, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, digital transportation and raw material industry. In the future, China's science and technology development will follow the two main lines of independent control and innovation leading. With the support of top-level policies, the investment opportunities in the subdivided science and technology sectors mentioned in the plan deserve attention, focusing on 5g, integrated circuit, industrial Internet, intelligent transportation, etc.
2) The consumer sector is expected to usher in a double-click market driven by valuation performance. Under the economic background of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, boosting consumption in 2022 is expected to become an important starting point, and more industrial policy support is expected in terms of consumption upgrading and market sinking. At the same time, the profitability of the consumer sector is likely to be significantly improved in 22 years. Under the low base effect, the performance elasticity is high, and the valuation end is expected to be significantly repaired under the boost of policy and prosperity.
3) The annual report anticipates investment opportunities in the sector. At present, the performance prediction rate of A-share annual report has reached 81.51%, a total of 97 enterprises, including many enterprises in pharmaceutical and biological, electronic, chemical and mechanical equipment industries. The performance growth is expected to double. The shares are mainly concentrated in high-profile industries such as chemical, pharmaceutical and electronics, and can focus on high-quality targets with large margin improvement and strong sustainability in the fourth quarter.
In January, the top ten gold stock portfolios of YueKai securities were: Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Tkd Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603738) .
Risk statement
China's economic recovery is less than expected, and the external environment is weaker than expected.
(YueKai securities)
