Industry perspective
Intelligent driving: in 2020 and 2021, the penetration rate of L2 level ADAS in China will be 15% and 20%, and the intelligent vehicle will accelerate. Generally, L2 level is equipped with 5 ~ 8 cameras, L3 level is equipped with 8 ~ 16 cameras and 1 ~ 3 lidars.
Vehicle lens: 1) in 2020, the global vehicle camera shipment reached 165 million, CAGR reached 30% in the past decade, and the number of cameras carried by a single vehicle reached 2.1. 2) In 2021, the global on-board camera industry increased by 20% at the same time. The growth rate was high before and low after, mainly due to the lack of automobile core. Thanks to the improvement of core shortage and the acceleration of intelligence, it is expected that the on-board camera market will increase by 44% in 2022. It is estimated that in 2025, the vehicle lens market will reach 26 billion yuan, the vehicle camera market will reach 78.2 billion yuan, and the CAGR will reach 32% from 2020 to 2025. 3) There are high barriers in the vehicle lens industry. Shunyu is the absolute leader, with a market share of 34%, ADAS lens market share of more than 50%, and the second to eighth places are foreign capital. China Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Xiamen Leading Optics Co.Ltd(605118) , Dongguan Yutong Optical Technology Co.Ltd(300790) actively lays out the field of vehicle lens, which has great prospects in the future.
4) At present, the vehicle camera modules are mainly dominated by overseas tier 1 and tier 2. We believe that with the rise of new forces in vehicle manufacturing and the upgrading of module specifications, the vehicle lens factory is expected to enter the module Market in the future.
Lidar: 1) 2021 is the first year of lidar. A total of 19 models are announced to be equipped with lidar, and it is expected to be in high volume in 2022. The existing lidar models are generally higher than 400000 yuan, and the price of lidar exceeds 7000 yuan. Technological progress + scale effect promote the decline of lidar price and further promote the rapid growth of the industry. 2) Thanks to the improvement of L3 penetration rate, we predict that the global on-board lidar market will reach 4.2 billion yuan in 2022, with a 4-fold increase, and the global on-board lidar market will exceed 30 billion yuan in 2025. 2) In 2020, Valeo and Suteng juchuang accounted for 28% and 10% of the global automotive and industrial lidar market, leading the industry. 3) Optical system is an important part of lidar. The specific products include lens, lens, prism, rotating mirror and other optical parts. We are optimistic about the optical enterprises binding high-quality customers.
Smart cockpit: in 2020, the global automotive smart cockpit market will reach US $37 billion, with an industry penetration rate of 45%. The main products include central control screen, LCD instrument and HUD. It is expected to reach US $56 billion in 2025 and CAGR of 8%. The main players in the industry are traditional Tier1.
On board display: 1) in 2021, the global shipment of on-board display screen reached 180 million units, an increase of 29% at the same time. It is estimated that the shipment of on-board display screen in 2022 will be 200 million units, an increase of 11% at the same time. It mainly benefits from the demand for display screen driven by automotive intelligence (large screen + multi screen). The main players in the industry are shentianma (14%), Youda (13%), JDI (12%) and BOE (12%). It is expected that the market share of shentianma and BOE is expected to increase to 20% ~ 30% in the future. 2) The display module accounts for the highest cost of the central control screen, and the screen industry has high technical and capital barriers. In the long run, we are optimistic that shentianma and BOE Jingdian will gradually extend downstream to seize the 100 billion system assembly market.
HUD: the penetration rate will be 7.5% in 2020. We predict that the HUD market will reach 29.2 billion yuan in 2025 and the CAGR will be 26% from 2020 to 2025. At present, the global complete machine market is mainly dominated by foreign capital. We believe that optical enterprises have great prospects in parts and complete machines in the future.
Investment advice
Industry strategy: looking forward to 2022, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of on-board lens, on-board camera, lidar, display screen and HUD under automobile intelligence, and also optimistic about the gradual transformation of optical enterprises and panel enterprises from tier2 to Tier1 to open the imagination space.
Recommended combination: Shunyu optical technology, BOE Jingdian, Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Dongguan Yutong Optical Technology Co.Ltd(300790) , Ju Guang Technology.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of intelligent driving is lower than expected, the production capacity is lower than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
（ Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) ）
