Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. In the short term, there is a continuous net inflow of funds from the north, PMI once again stands on the boom and bust line, and there are obvious signs of stabilization after market adjustment. In addition, with the opening of the monetary easing cycle and the support and boost of the market, it is recommended to hold shares for the new year. In case of consolidation, it is still a good time for the low absorption game to cross the year and the market in the first quarter of the next year.
In the morning, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high. After the opening, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 strengthened, the index rose rapidly, and then fell slightly and fluctuated high. Since then, subject stocks have differentiated, and the gem once turned green, while the Shanghai index has performed relatively strongly. In terms of sectors, power equipment led the rise, while utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate and non-ferrous metals led the rise, while food and beverage, household appliances, electronics and coal fell slightly.
In the short term, under the influence of multiple factors, the market sentiment has rebounded, which has supported and boosted the market in the next year and the first quarter of the next year: on the one hand, northward funds have continuously swept goods. In the morning, northbound funds continued to buy. As of 10:42, northbound funds had bought a total net of 3.045 billion yuan, while yesterday’s net inflow was nearly 10 billion yuan. In the past four days, it has been boosted by continuous inflow, which has changed the emotional impact of previous outflow on the market; On the other hand, PMI stands on the boom and bust line again; In December, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continued to rise. Despite the overall downward pressure on the economy, as a leading indicator of the economy, the short-term PMI has rebounded continuously, and the expectation of economic recovery will also support and boost the market;
Back in the market, although there is no absolute hot plate on the disk in the near future, it has remained stable as a whole, and the overall performance of undervalued varieties is slightly stronger, mainly due to the expectation of valuation improvement and make-up rise under the expectation of monetary easing, which will run through the market in the next year and the first quarter of the next year. In this process, investors with light positions can consider bargain hunting for appropriate allocation.
To sum up: with the support of fundamentals and the boost of liquidity, we are still optimistic about the market in the next year and the first quarter of the next year. There is no need to worry too much about the short-term return step. Under the support of steady growth and the opening of the easing cycle, the market as a whole still has the basis of support and boost. The callback as a whole can be regarded as a washing dish, and bargain hunting can still be considered for configuration. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
