Looking back on 2021, it is like riding a roller coaster for pig breeding enterprises.
At the beginning of this year, pig prices remained extremely high under the super cycle, but after the Spring Festival, pig prices began to decline rapidly. With the sudden arrival of the downward cycle of pig prices, the pig breeding industry has entered a loss. As of December 30, the shares of the five major pig enterprises Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) and Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) had fallen by 43.65%, 3.48%, 65.59%, 48.61% and 57.55% from their highs in the year.
In fact, the share prices of listed pig enterprises this year have shown a deep V trend. In the middle of this year, after the share prices of major pig enterprises hit a new low, they rebounded again, of which Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) rebounded more than 50%, reaching 57.41%.
In an interview with Huaxia times, Jiang Qin, a researcher of Hualian futures, said that according to the data, it is expected that pigs will be sold or reach the peak around April next year, and the pig price may reach the lowest point in the year. In the first half of next year, the big contradiction of oversupply has not changed significantly. The disk has fallen to the state of discount, and the short-term range has been sorted out in a narrow range.
"In 2022, the overall pig price may be suppressed first and then increased, and the fluctuation range is about 11 yuan - 18 yuan / kg. The loss dilemma of the industry may end in June next year." Jiang Qin said.
bottom rebound in the year
Although the major pig enterprises rebounded again after the stock price fell, the stock price of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) rebounded by 57.41%, which is still unique.
According to statistics, on July 30, the company's share price hit the bottom of 12.14 yuan / share. As of December 30, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) closed at 19.11 yuan / share. On December 27, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) reached a new high of 19.80 yuan / share in the session, realizing the headwind reversal of the stock price, and the market value reached 100 billion level again, reaching 121.383 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) as one of the only pig enterprises with more than 200 billion yuan, as of December 30, the closing quotation was 52.14 yuan / share. Although it was almost halved compared with the highest share price of 92.53 yuan / share in the year on February 22, for the new low of 39.01 yuan / share in the year touched in the intraday on July 28, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) also achieved a bottom rebound, with a rebound range of more than 30%.
The share price of New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) reached the intraday peak of 28.20 yuan / share in February 2021, but as of December 30, the closing price had been 14.52 yuan / share, the share price fell by half, and the market value evaporated by more than 60 billion yuan.
The share price has also fallen by 50% from the high point of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) and Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , and the market value has also shrunk sharply. Once touched Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) with the highest share price of 19.28 yuan / share, and the closing price as of December 30 was only 9.41 yuan / share; Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) the highest share price was 13.83 yuan / share, and the daily closing was 6.31 yuan / share as of December 30.
do pig enterprises still have money
Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, told the Huaxia times that at present, the trend of pig price still remains in the doldrums. It will gradually pick up after the turning point of the cycle, and the loss dilemma of the industry can be gradually alleviated and ended.
In fact, in the process of this round of pig cycle, large pig enterprises have expanded much more with the help of the upward trend than in the past. Therefore, as the cycle moves downward, the capital chain and cost have become the lifeline of the industry. In the downward stage of the pig cycle, the capital supply under the pressure of pig price is a challenge to major pig enterprises.
In this regard, Bai Wenxi said that in the capital market, the cash flow problem of pig enterprises has always attracted much attention, which involves the vital issues of enterprises. At the same time, it is also the embodiment of the operation and management level of enterprises, which can also be used as one of the core indicators to judge whether they can be given a management premium and sustainable development.
It is worth noting that "Zhumao" Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) had been downgraded due to overdue commercial tickets. For the current capital situation of the company, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) said that after the commercial ticket incident, the company took a variety of measures to quickly solve the problem, standardize business operations and improve personnel ability. At present, the company's business with major cooperative banks is progressing smoothly, and there is no loan withdrawal and loan interruption.
However, in the face of multiple pressures such as industry cycle, operating loss and rising debt, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) needs to bear the capital pressure can not be underestimated. Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) in October this year, the non-public offering plan was issued to issue no more than 6 billion yuan of shares to the company's controlling shareholder Muyuan Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "muyuan industry"). Recently, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) applied to the controlling shareholder muyuan industry at the general meeting of shareholders to adjust the loan limit to no more than 5 billion yuan. Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) said that after the relevant matters are considered and approved, it will also provide strong support for the company's next development.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) also mentioned its own funds in recent investor activities. Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) said that at present, the company has abundant capital reserves. As of the end of September, the company's various available funds exceeded 12 billion yuan. In addition, the company has billions of financial investment projects that can be realized at any time. According to the cash stress test, the company is currently in a safe and stable state.
It is understood that Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) in addition to pig raising business, there are many supporting and related businesses such as chicken and duck raising, investment, animal protection, dairy industry, agricultural and animal husbandry machinery, which can provide relatively stable operating cash flow; And adjust the focus to make good use of the existing production capacity by controlling capital expenditure and activating assets earlier; In April this year, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) successfully issued 9.297 billion yuan of convertible bonds. Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) at present, there are many types and amounts of various financing instruments that have been applied for but not used, and efforts are made to promote the application of supply chain financial financing instruments at the same time.
New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) the cumulative new borrowings in 2021 have exceeded 50% of the net assets at the end of the previous year. In this regard, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) said that it would not have a significant adverse impact on production, operation and solvency. At present, the overall asset liability level of the company is stable. However New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) compared with other pig enterprises, the income from pig breeding accounts for a relatively low proportion, accounting for only about 20%.
Unlike New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) further focuses on pig breeding business. Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) announced on December 21 that the company transferred 100% of the equity of Zhengbang food to Zhengbang group. The sale is to concentrate the company's resources, improve the professional management level and focus on pig breeding, and the proceeds from the sale will be used for the company's daily business activities. It is understood that the asset liability ratio of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) has reached 75.23%, and began to significantly reduce the amount of investment.
"In the face of industry cycle, in addition to reducing production capacity to reduce the scale of losses, major enterprises should also actively seek to improve the degree of vertical integration and industrial intensification of the industrial chain, so as to improve the safety and cost competitiveness of the industrial chain, so as to improve the anti cycle ability of enterprises. In addition, pig enterprises can also actively try to use the futures market to hedge the risk of cyclical fluctuations in the industry." Bai Wenxi told Huaxia times.
(Huaxia times)
