Key points:
Market outlook for 2022: the imbalance between supply and demand, accelerating localization and substitution, R & D and innovation, strengthening market competitiveness, and the development of China's semiconductor industry can be expected
Industry as a whole: the two main lines of supply-demand imbalance and localization substitution in the first half of 2022 will continue to boost the upward scale of the semiconductor industry market. Downstream markets such as 5g mobile phones, new energy vehicles and Internet of things equipment are in the ascendant, bringing new increment, opportunities and competition to the fields of semiconductor upstream design, midstream and downstream manufacturing and substrate materials. China's semiconductor industry is still on the long way to follow the competition. The "lack of core" and localization substitution bring opportunities for Chinese enterprises to accelerate and shorten the gap. The improvement of product competitiveness is the key to ensure that the market door is always open, and scientific and technological innovation is the key to win the future.
On the supply side, the supply shortage is expected to be significantly alleviated after the release of new capacity in the middle and late 2022. Supply interruption superimposed supply chain security issues have prompted many countries to promote the localized deployment of semiconductor industry chain, and the pattern of semiconductor industry chain may be far-reaching affected.
On the demand side, the market penetration of 5g mobile phones in the field of traditional consumer electronic terminals has increased steadily, and the rapid growth of sales of superimposed wearable devices has driven the upward shipment of RF front-end modules. Yole predicts that the RF front-end market scale CAGR will be about 10.65% from 2021 to 2025. Emerging markets continue to prosper. IOT analytics predicts that the sales growth of IOT terminal equipment will be about 17.89% in 2022; Deloitte expects the new energy sales CAGR to reach 37% from 2021 to 2025; MCU and power semiconductor benefit from the expansion of demand. IC insights predicts that the market scale of MCU in China will reach 6.3% from 2021 to 20225, and omdia predicts that the market scale of new energy vehicle IGBT in China will be about 33.15% from 2020 to 2024.
To sum up, we believe that the shortage of supply in the first half of 2022 will boost the capacity of enterprises in silicon wafer, wafer foundry and packaging and testing sectors to maintain a high level, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price may continue before the significant release of new capacity; The new increment of medium and long-term performance is driven by the large amount of new production capacity and the implementation of advanced process R & D. The demand for a variety of downstream terminal products continues to boom, and it is expected to boost the market scale of RF front-end modules, MCU, power semiconductors and so on for a long time. The vigorous development of emerging markets will give birth to the demand for new semiconductor materials. The global demand for SOI, the third generation semiconductor material SiC and Gan is ready to go. Challenges and opportunities coexist, or become a new focus in the semiconductor material sector.
Investment advice
Looking forward to 2022, the imbalance between supply and demand and the substitution of localization will boost the performance growth and R & D Progress of semiconductor leaders. The Internet of things and new energy vehicles continue to drive the demand of the chip market, and the industrial development is good for a long time; Focus on high-quality companies with product competitiveness and technology leadership in the field of vehicle specification semiconductor, aiot, silicon wafer and third-generation semiconductor substrate materials; It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the semiconductor industry and maintain the overweight rating of the industry.
Risk statement
Capacity expansion or new technology R & D landing is not as expected; Market demand declined and internal and external policies changed.
(Xiangcai securities)
