Looking back on 2021, although problems such as corporate profit differentiation and global supply chain tension caused by covid-19 epidemic still exist, the A-share market as a whole has withstood the test and finally handed over an answer sheet that is sufficient to satisfy investors.

As of the closing on December 30, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index rose by 4.21%, 2.25% and 12.02% respectively.

It is worth mentioning that if the market does not fluctuate violently today, the Shanghai index will harvest the annual line three consecutive positive after 28 years. Previously, the annual line of the Shanghai stock index had been positive from 1990 to 1993.

"cow short bear long" is going away

The A-share market was often criticized as "short bull and long bear". Open the K-line chart of Shanghai stock index, "bull only three years" seems to be the norm, and each sharp rise is often followed by a sharp fall. The repeated "roller coaster" market has caused poor shareholding experience of investors, and also affected the financing function of the capital market to a certain extent.

there are many reasons for the above phenomenon, and the problem of capital structure is one of the key factors. Looking back on the ending process of the "6124 point" bull market in 2007 and the "5178 point" bull market in 2015, the irrational trading behavior of funds led to the imbalance of market valuation, which was an important reason for the impulsive market of the index.

Fortunately, in recent years, with the continuous improvement of trading mechanisms such as interconnection and the accelerated construction of multi-level capital market system, the A-share market has ushered in sustained and stable incremental funds at the institutional level. The total amount and structure of incremental capital of A-share have changed greatly, which, together with the reform of registration system, has a profound impact on the liquidity environment of A-share market.

Anxin Securities said that the influx of foreign capital, the rapid growth of public and private funds and the transformation of investment philosophy are promoting the structural changes of A-share investors. It is estimated that from 2015 to 2021, the proportion of A-share circulating market value held by various institutions increased from 14.8% to 28.2%, an increase of about 13.4 percentage points, an increase of nearly 100%.

Specifically, by 2021, under the background that the issuance rhythm of public funds slowed down in the second half of the year, private funds showed a rapid expansion trend. According to the data of China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association, by the end of November this year, the number of existing private equity funds had reached 121500, with a management scale of 19.73 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 3.76 trillion yuan over the beginning of the year. Figure: existence of private fund manager

The trend of foreign capital inflow remains stable. As of the closing on December 30, northbound funds had bought a net 427.595 billion yuan in the whole year, exceeding 400 billion yuan in a single year for the first time in history. By the end of October 2021, foreign investors had accumulated A-share circulation market value of RMB 3.67 trillion through QFII, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect and other channels, accounting for about 4.97%.

carbon neutralization main line runs through the whole year

The institutional trend of A-Shares drives the overall investment behavior of the market to be more rational, and the market operation quality is improved accordingly. At the same time, in the environment dominated by institutional investors, the operation rhythm of the A-share market has quietly changed.

Looking back on 2021, although the overall fluctuation of the index is small, the amplitude of major broad-based indexes such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has hit a new low for many years. However, the structural characteristics between stocks and plates are very significant. Industry insiders believe that the wonderful market structural opportunities this year are due to the gradual dominance of institutional investors.

"After 2019, the prosperity of different industries is often misplaced. Compared with individual investors, institutions pay more attention to the prosperity trend of industry sectors, which often leads to the rise of some sectors and the fall of others since 2019. The correlation between industry sectors has dropped significantly, especially since this year." Said Zhang Xia, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) .

In the process of plate rotation this year, carbon neutralization has become the main line of the market throughout the year, and the related high-end manufacturing directions such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic have increased rapidly.

Divided by the new Shenwan industry, as of the closing on December 30, the power equipment industry as a whole rose 45.67% this year, ranking first in the first tier industry. The subdivided battery sector rose 65%, the power grid equipment sector rose 46%, and the photovoltaic equipment and wind power equipment sectors rose 42% and 37% respectively. Figure: ranking of growth in Shenwan industry during the year

Under the background of global green energy transformation and frequent extreme weather, Europe and other places are facing rare energy shortages this year, resulting in the rise of commodity prices worldwide. Reflected in the A-share market, the coal sector has risen by 40% as a whole this year, and the non-ferrous metals, basic chemical industry and steel industry have also increased by more than 30%.

In contrast, the pace of public offering slowed down and the superimposed valuation entered a high level. The performance of the large consumer sector was flat this year. The household appliances and food and beverage industries fell by 19.72% and 5.32% respectively. Debt defaults of individual real estate enterprises triggered capital risk aversion, and real estate, non bank finance and banking sectors all adjusted by different ranges this year.

outlook 2022:

more scarce high prosperity meets more abundant liquidity

Looking forward to the A-share market next year, institutions generally believe that the structural market is expected to continue. Among them, under the background of the decline of low base factors, the targets of high profit growth will be more scarce. At the same time, the overall capital level is expected to remain abundant next year, and "long money" such as public offering, private placement, foreign capital and insurance capital is expected to continue to form increments.

Zhang Junxiao, chief strategist of Guosheng securities, believes that the road of market institutionalization will go deep in 2022. With the strengthening trend of residents' wealth entering the market, professional institutions with investment and research advantages are the main force to drain residents' wealth; The internationalization of the capital market is expected to go further, and the logic of "water flowing to the bottom" of foreign capital remains unchanged; Public offering and private placement will continue to lead the increment, and the proportion of "long money" such as insurance capital and bank financial management subsidiaries is increasing. Overall, the funds will remain abundant next year.

Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) Liu Chenming's strategy team said that "boom" is the "anchor" for the differentiation of A-share market structure in 2021. The capital's pursuit of medium and short-term profit growth is the leading factor determining the style of the A-share market. The dominant small cap style in 2021 is the resonance between the low base factor and the upward industrial cycle.

Looking at 2022, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that most of the low base effect of small cap stocks will disappear, "more scarce high boom meets more abundant liquidity" will be the main investment logic next year. On this premise, there is an opportunity of "dilemma reversal" in the mandatory food and breeding industry; 5g communication may be close to the industrial inflection point, and there may be nonlinear growth opportunities in the fields of Internet of things and meta universe.

Wei Wei, chief strategist of Ping An Securities, continued to be optimistic about the direction of carbon neutralization and firmly said that carbon neutralization is the long-term main line of China's industrial transformation and upgrading, which will give birth to new economic growth points and bring medium and long-term layout direction to the capital market.

"On the one hand, industries such as new energy, new energy vehicles and energy storage will continue to grow rapidly; on the other hand, energy-saving and environmental protection materials and energy-saving equipment are expected to usher in new growth points. On the whole, we suggest looking for the diffusion of investment opportunities in all links along the above industrial chain. At the same time, we should pay attention to preventing the risk of periodic overvaluation." Wei Wei said.

year end inventory

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(Shanghai Securities News)