Recently, the new energy vehicle sector has fallen into a shock adjustment pattern. The agency said that the weakening of relative prosperity advantage under the background of overvalued value is the core reason for the recent plate adjustment. At present, the adjustment range of the new energy vehicle sector has been relatively sufficient. From the perspective of sales growth and penetration, the long-term inflection point of industry growth is far from coming.
plate adjustment caused by two factors
New energy vehicles are one of the hottest tracks in the A-share market in 2021. A large number of bull stocks have emerged in the subdivided fields such as lithium ore, diaphragm and electrolyte. The total market value of the industry leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan.
Recently, the new energy vehicle sector has fallen into a shock adjustment pattern, and various voices of concern about the industry have come.
“The main reason for the recent adjustment of the new energy vehicle sector is the weakening of the relative prosperity advantage under the background of high valuation.” According to Deng Lijun, chief strategist of Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) , first, under the background of overvaluation of the sector in the early stage, some funds flowed out of the sector, which had an adverse impact on the marginal change of liquidity; Second, the prosperity of some industries is expected to improve, weakening the relative prosperity advantage of the new energy vehicle sector.
Deng Lijun believes that the adjustment range of the new energy vehicle sector since early December has been about 10%, which is relatively sufficient. If it is adjusted again in the short term, it will be a layout opportunity.
The higher than expected outlook is the core driving force of the new energy vehicle sector. According to the latest data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger vehicles reached 378000 in mid November 2021, a year-on-year increase of 122.3% and a month on month increase of 19.8%.
Can the new energy vehicle industry continue the high boom of 2021 in 2022? Peng Guangchun, chief analyst of the new power industry of Huachuang securities, said that the marginal pulling effect decreases with the gradual ebb of the policy, and the endogenous demand at the consumer end has become the main force contributing to the sales volume. Looking forward to 2022, the supply optimization plus consumption will continue to exert force, and the sales volume of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is expected to continue to grow.
focus on three main lines
In the view of many institutions, the new energy vehicle sector is still the most deterministic track, and the inflection point of industry growth is far from coming.
Deng Lijun said that the long-term inflection point of smartphone excess return occurred in the period when the year-on-year growth rate of sales fell sharply to less than 40% and the penetration rate rose to more than 55%. At present, the two-year compound year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in November was 136% and the penetration rate was 19%. Compared with the development of smart phones, there is room for further growth in the sales growth and penetration of new energy vehicles.
“New energy vehicles have ushered in a high-profile period of more than five years, and are still in a period of rapid growth in the next two years, mainly because after experiencing the industrial pain period, they have ushered in the multiple resonance catalysis of volume, profit and price in the industrial chain.” Yin bin, a new industry analyst at Huaxin securities, said that the growth rate of the industry will slow down slightly after 2023. The rapid growth in energy storage and other fields will effectively promote the slowing lithium battery industry chain, and the valuation of the whole sector can still be maintained at a high level.
Huachuang Securities said that in 2022, it is suggested to pay attention to the three main investment lines of the new energy vehicle industry chain. First, the overseas market demand led by the United States may be on the eve of outbreak, so it is suggested to pay attention to the high elasticity target of overseas supply chain; Second, the profit of lithium battery has reached the bottom, and the cost transmission is smooth. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in lithium battery; Third, it is suggested to pay attention to the negative link subject to high-energy graphitization capacity, the iron lithium link driven by multiple logic and the copper foil link with a continuously tight supply and demand pattern.
(China Securities Journal)
