Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened up and down. After the initial shock, the stock index quickly launched an upward offensive. Under the cooperation of weight and subject plate, the market almost showed a general upward pattern, which prompted the index to rise rapidly and have a good view of its strength.
As mentioned in Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , on Thursday, the A-share market first depressed and then rose, with a slight shock, and the core assets fully stabilized and rebounded. The stock indexes of the two cities rose slightly after opening in the morning. The theme plates such as media, games, education and aerospace military industry were active, which boosted the stock index to climb up step by step, and the Shanghai index closed again to recover the integer mark of 3600 points. The trading volume of the two cities is about 1 trillion, the characteristics of the stock game are still the same, and the market hot spots continue to show a trend of rapid rotation. the end of the year is approaching, and all parties in the market continue to hold a wait-and-see attitude , hot sectors such as media, games and military industry, which have strengthened one after another recently, are expected to usher in better performance after the Festival. It is recommended to be cautious and optimistic .
On the technical side, Dongguan securities mentioned that the index rebounded from shock on Thursday, the Shanghai index returned to above 3600 points, and the trend has warmed up. The individual stock sector is generally active, with a net capital inflow of more than 8 billion yuan in the north, and the inter-bank interest rate level remained stable at the end of the year, indicating that the capital remained stable at the end of . It is expected that the market is expected to strengthen in repeated shocks, Pay attention to the change of energy and plate rotation . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the market saw and fluctuated repeatedly above 3600 this week, which was very difficult to operate, and the decrease in capital activity at the end of the year was the main reason. compared with the previous two years, it is believed that the large trend opportunities between plates will be more difficult to grasp in 2022, and the differentiation within plates will be very strong. In the past, there were fewer and fewer opportunities to win in the new energy plate . We must pay attention to the rhythm, and it may be a choice to make bands in the varieties with high financial attention.
In addition, Guosheng Securities believes that there is only one trading day left in 2021, and the final settlement cycle is about to pass. The power of killing and falling in the later stage will be reduced, and the rhythm may be dominated by rebound, so it can actively participate in . Plate, Baijiu, food intensive price increases, cost transfer, and disk performance has dropped sharply, or trading opportunities, consumption can be regarded as a medium term concern . At the same time, yuan universe and hydrogen energy poured in more funds in the early stage, and the theme has imagination space , which can be tracked.
resumption of the four-stage evolution of A-Shares in 2021 , further analysis by Guosheng securities, stage I: the agitation at the end of “lying win” and the switching of “holding together” pattern (January February) . The market and style reversed simultaneously, the “group” of core assets ended, and the defensive and undervalued sectors reversed and closed up.
Stage 2: the main line of “double carbon” is becoming clear, and “ningmao differentiation” is highlighted (March June) ; The two sessions set the tone of “carbon neutralization”, the upstream resources and new energy market were launched, and the internal core assets also showed “ningmao differentiation”.
Stage 3: the “double carbon” policy is overweight, the macro differences are increasing, and the transaction volume continues to be large (July September) . The “dual control of energy consumption” further strengthened the logic of price increase. There were many differences in overseas liquidity and China’s economic resilience. There were more stock capital position adjustment superposition quantitative transactions, and A-share transactions were significantly large.
Stage 4: downward pressure is prominent, and steady growth has gradually become the main line (since October) . Economic data and policy setting continued to verify the downward pressure, the expectation of steady growth accelerated and strengthened, and the market began slowly at the end of the year.
In addition, Huaxin Securities pointed out that has a high probability of making a “good start” in 2022 after the festival . Therefore, in operation, it is recommended that investors mainly hold low-end shares for the festival, or hold low-end varieties and wait for the opportunity of rotation and promotion after the Festival.
Looking forward to 2022, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that “post recession” defense and growth style deserve more attention . It is suggested that in 2022, we should focus on big consumption (innovative drugs, Baijiu, pork, consumer services, etc.), technology (electronics, computers, communications, media, semiconductor, etc.), such as military industry, new energy (energy storage, green electricity, photovoltaic, wind energy, etc.).
In terms of operational strategy, Ping An Securities also mentioned that the market is still dominated by game shocks in the short term, and the relative cost performance of the main line of steady growth has increased. At present, A-Shares are in a performance vacuum period, with obvious plate height switching, and the market pays more attention to the effect of steady growth policy. However, with limited overall policy strength and real estate downside concerns, the overall capital is in the wait-and-see stage, and still needs to wait for a new performance growth and policy starting point in 2022. structurally, it is suggested to focus on the main line of steady growth and pay attention to new infrastructure, consumption, military industry and other sectors .
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that under the environment of market shock, can bargain hunting and layout the restless direction in spring, which is biased towards consumption growth . In terms of industry allocation, there are three main investment lines: 1) growth sector , such as new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.) and electronic industry chain; 2) the “Spring Festival effect”, Baijiu with certain price expectations. 3) The “real estate” sector benefited from the marginal change of the real estate policy of “implementing policies due to the city”, and individual stocks focused on the central enterprises with increased market share. Theme investment focuses on “double carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading”, etc.
Wanhe Securities believes that the risk of A-share investment in 2022 is greater than the opportunity. It is suggested that investors reduce their income expectations and actively look for structural opportunities . In terms of timing, in the second half of 2022, when the external Federal Reserve ends its table expansion, interest rate hike boots and other uncertain factors, if China’s economy shows signs of improvement, A-Shares will begin to usher in a new round of medium and long-term investment opportunities .
In terms of thematic investment, the agency further said that it could focus on the two main lines of national strategic tone and future development trend , In terms of national strategic tone, we can focus on carbon peak and carbon neutralization (wind power, photovoltaic, nuclear power, environmental protection, energy storage, etc.); in terms of future development trend, we can focus on intelligent vehicles (panel, chip manufacturing, lithium battery, circuit system, electronic control, motor, cloud computing, high-precision map, etc.), metauniverse (cloud computing, artificial intelligence, chip, panel, etc.).
