Today (December 31), the three major stock indexes of A-Shares opened high. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, the stock indexes gradually differentiated, the gem index dived and weakened, while the Shanghai index maintained the red market consolidation, showing a more resistance to decline. From the disk point of view, the light index and heavy stocks continued, the year-end “extra meal” market hit, the pork, food and beverage, retail, medicine and other sectors performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Ping An securities mentioned that the market is still dominated by game shocks in the short term, and the relative cost performance of the main line of steady growth has increased. At present, A-Shares are in a performance vacuum period, with obvious plate height switching, and the market pays more attention to the effect of steady growth policy. However, with limited overall policy strength and real estate downside concerns, the overall capital is in the wait-and-see stage, and still needs to wait for a new performance growth and policy starting point in 2022.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] pork
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that after the first bottoming in this cycle, the breeding end has been obviously under pressure, and the trend of capacity removal has been established. However, the increase in the supplement column brought by the recent price rebound and the improvement in the breeding efficiency brought by the increase in the proportion of binary high breeding sows will delay the bottom of pig prices. Recently, the plate has entered the downward range again after the rebound, and the bottom building mood is relatively strong. It is suggested to pay attention to two types of enterprises: one is to select head breeding enterprises with cost advantages and abundant cash flow; Second, after the second bottom of pig prices, it is suggested to pay attention to small and beautiful growth targets with comparative advantages in capacity reserves and valuation.
In addition, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities mentioned that benefiting from the promotion of policies, the seed industry is expected to usher in a new transgenic era. We maintain the positive rating of the seed industry, especially the investment opportunities of the high boom corn seed industry, and suggest paying attention to the accelerated implementation of policies. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with excellent variety combination and continuous growth of performance, and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) with leading advantages in transgenic R & D and variety layout. Pay attention to Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) .
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that for pig breeding, the short-term production capacity shows a trend of de industrialization. In the first half of next year, the pig price may hit the bottom twice, and the market value of listed pig enterprises fell to the historical bottom, so as to grasp the investment opportunities on the left side of the plate; The long-term benefits are concentrated on a large scale, and there are still overtaking opportunities for the capacity expansion of listed pig enterprises.
For the meat and poultry industry, the upstream supply pressure of white chicken is still large, the industrial chain has a deep loss or forced the upstream to reduce production capacity, pay attention to the production capacity adjustment rhythm of chicken farms, the long-term industrial chain extension is expected to bring valuation remodeling, and pay attention to the integration leader; The upstream production capacity of yellow chicken has shrunk significantly, and it is expected to continue to pick up in 2022, so as to grasp the growth dividend of chilled products for a long time.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that in the case of deep losses in the industry, the production capacity continues to be depopulated. According to the third-party data or Tianfeng agriculture questionnaire survey data, the clearing range of real production capacity in the past period may exceed expectations; In terms of the time for the release of pigs corresponding to the stock of fertile sows, it is expected that around the middle of next year, the pig production capacity will reach the peak and turn down, which may be the inflection point of the reversal of the bottom of pig prices. However, it should also be noted that the replacement of reserve sows. If the amount of reserve sows is fast from November this year to January next year, the inflection point time may be delayed. []
[Theme 2] retail
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that from the social consumption data in November, the overall social consumption growth rate is weak, which will suppress the recovery of the retail sector in the short term. At the same time, given that the recurrence of the epidemic has a great impact on offline stores of retail terminals, we believe that there will be some pressure on the sprint at the end of 2021. To sum up, it still needs policy stimulus to boost consumer demand, and it still takes time for the overall improvement of the demand side. We suggest that investors may wish to wait and see in the short term, wait for new catalysts for consumer goods, such as policy support, and then cut into the retail sector.
Looking forward to 2022, Shanghai Securities pointed out that retail may continue to present a differentiated market, look for structural highlights and look forward to bottom recovery. In terms of investment suggestions, investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues the strong recovery trend and high outlook since the beginning of the year. We continue to recommend Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , and we suggest paying attention to Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . Professional chain convenience stores and encrypted exhibition stores provide convenience, superimpose business model expansion and jointly resist the impact of new business forms. It is recommended to pay attention to Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) ; In the traditional and new retail field, the business format of warehousing members is in the ascendant. It is suggested to pay attention to HEMA (Alibaba) and Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) that actively layout the business format of warehousing stores.
Investment main line two: new retail business of the electricity supplier, live broadcasting and shop self seeding rapid development, and suggest to pay attention to the tiktok electricity supplier and Alibaba. The Matthew effect of community group buying is getting stronger. It is suggested to pay attention to meituan and fight more.
Investment main line 3: the background of common prosperity, the current situation of superimposed traffic peaking, and the fierce competition among Internet enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with the advantages of supply chain.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that with the further enrichment of new formats, new models and new scenes in the retail industry, domestic brands in the new consumption field will continue to promote the digital transformation, realize the omni-channel coverage of online touch and offline experience, and constantly upgrade the brand core to tap the medium and high-end market while meeting the public consumption demand. It mainly focuses on the three main lines of the rise of domestic goods, consumption upgrading and channel integration. []
[Theme 3] food and beverage
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) believes that there are three main lines for food and beverage investment next year: the first is that the demand will be better than this year. The damaged industries or channels this year may have opportunities for improvement next year, such as catering industry chain, prefabricated vegetables, leisure food with supermarkets as the main sales channel, etc. Second, the expected polarization of consumption will continue, but this will be eased compared with this year, and will support the demand for high-end and high-end baijiu. 3. Under the cost pressure, the performance of enterprises with the ability to transmit cost pressure to the downstream will be improved.
The agency further analyzed that the overall demand for food and beverage will be better than this year, and the fundamentals of the liquor industry will continue to maintain a steady and steady trend. Baijiu Baijiu will continue to boom. The demand for dairy products is still good, and the price of raw milk may see an inflection point in the middle of next year. The observation of competition has become the key to judge whether the profitability of dairy products can continue to strengthen; The condiment industry will further destock. With the further recovery of the catering industry, the condiment industry will gradually embark on the road of recovery next year; In addition, the field of rapid growth of new consumption also deserves attention. New tracks such as prefabricated dishes will still maintain rapid growth and are expected to become high growth tracks next year.
For liquor, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that Baijiu is our most promising industry. Consumption shows strong resilience and beer continues to be high-end. (1) looking forward to 2022, we think that Baijiu is still the best sub industry with certainty. Although some companies controlled goods in the fourth quarter, which may have an impact on the report performance, from another point of view, these companies will make a good start to the Spring Festival in 2022. Because of the change of income structure, the ratcheting effect of Baijiu consumption and the trend of concentration increasing, Baijiu consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor. Baijiu focuses on deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) , and focuses on Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . (2) The beer industry will continue the high-end trend. Enterprises with advantages in product portfolio, sales channels, brand publicity and operation efficiency are more likely to win the competition for high-end beer and wait for the recovery of demand. It is suggested to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) and China Resources beer.
For the food industry, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) further analysis shows that the dark time has passed. Pay attention to the dairy leader in the short term and look forward to a year. There are opportunities for leisure, quick-frozen and soft drinks. (1) High end white milk and low-temperature white milk are favored by consumers because of their nutrition and health. The change of consumption habits will promote these categories to maintain high growth. In the short term, there are many leading opportunities for dairy products, the competition pattern continues to improve, and the performance release power is strong. (2) Seasoning demand is expected to improve quarter by quarter, so we need to pay close attention to the changes of competition pattern. (3) Quick frozen food will benefit from the accelerated growth of epidemic C-end in 2020, gradually return to normal in 2021, and pay attention to the growth opportunities of subdivided tracks such as Cantonese quick frozen. (4) For snack food, companies will continue to adjust and improve in 2022, focusing on the effect of price increase and adjustment. (5) Focus on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) .
In addition, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that demand recovery and consumption upgrading drive the industry to continue to boom, and high-end high-end high-end faucets were configured in 2021. The Baijiu was under the control of epidemic control and the macroeconomic pressure increased in the second half of the year. Liquor consumption was more or less affected. Looking forward to next year’s stable macroeconomic growth and recovery of the epidemic situation, consumption upgrading and demand recovery will become the main theme of the industry; High end and second high-end Baijiu companies are still the most beneficial species, and they are optimized by configuration.
Looking forward to next year, it is expected that several influencing factors will weaken marginally, demand recovery may become the main theme, and price increase and cost down are expected to bring more than expected performance to the plate. First, we are still optimistic about the beer and dairy sector with obvious high-end trend, gradual price increase and gradual easing of cost pressure; Secondly, we are still optimistic about the growth investment opportunities of segment tracks in the high growth period, such as catering supply chain, cheese, leisure food and other segment tracks; At the same time, we suggest paying attention to the improved investment opportunities of demand recovery and cost reduction in the condiment industry. []
[Topic 4] medicine
Xiangcai Securities said that the pharmaceutical investment strategy in the era of epidemic after 2022 should return to the industrial operation trend. At present, the China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is moving from a large pharmaceutical country to a powerful pharmaceutical country, and the terminal business model is also changing from demand driven to demand creation. Under the framework of this industrial operation trend, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) science and technology iteration of the upstream demand of the industrial chain. It is suggested to take biotechnology as the core context and tap the hidden champions of Tob end segmentation industries such as upstream equipment, gene consumables, biological enzymes, high-end analytical instruments and reagents of the industrial chain.
The agency further analyzed that the investment and innovation track should always be at the forefront of science and technology and closely follow the technology iteration cycle. At present, we are optimistic about the value of ADC, double antibody and mRNA technology platforms. It is recommended to pay attention to the long-term investment opportunities of relevant companies. In addition, we are also optimistic about the investment opportunities for the transformation and innovation of traditional pharmaceutical enterprises. These companies are subject to the suppression of the centralized purchase policy of stock business, and the valuation is at a historical low. It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of cutting-edge tracks, and the product line has potential opportunities for poor stocks.
Looking forward to 2022, Caixin securities mentioned that: (1) after early adjustment, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical and biological sector fell to a low level, the fund position fell to a low level, and the allocation cost performance gradually appeared; (2) The centralized drug purchase and medical insurance negotiations are normalized, the mechanism design is more mature, the price decline tends to be relatively moderate, key reform policies and action plans such as DRG payment and medical service price have been promulgated one after another, the industrial policies are more clear, and the disturbance from the policies is expected to be reduced; (3) Aging, innovation, internationalization and localization continue to promote the steady development of the industry, and the industry fundamentals are still good. Policy immunity and high growth have always been important considerations in pharmaceutical and biological investment. We believe that the investment strategy in 2022 is to comply with the trend of pharmaceutical policy reform, focus on high growth track and select high-quality stocks. []
