Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the industry has ushered in a new situation under the catalysis of policies pay attention to the valuation and repair market of traditional Chinese medicine
Under the policy catalysis, the industry ushered in new changes and paid attention to the valuation and repair market of traditional Chinese medicine. The policy continues to actively encourage the development of traditional Chinese medicine. At the beginning of the year, the State Council issued several policies and measures on accelerating the characteristic development of traditional Chinese medicine, which defined the state’s determination to encourage the development of traditional Chinese medicine at multiple levels and in multiple directions. Since this year, the acceleration of the approval and listing of new traditional Chinese medicine has also confirmed the strength of policy support. At present, traditional Chinese medicine enterprises are generally at a low historical valuation. The valuation of most companies corresponds to only about 10-20 times PE in 2022, with prominent configuration value.
At the current time point, we are optimistic about two types of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises: 1) product resource-based enterprises, such as Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , are optimistic that such companies will continue to benefit from the limited supply of upstream resources + the stable growth of downstream demand in the future and enjoy the simultaneous rise of volume and price; 2) For companies with marginal improvement at the operating level and some poor expectations, some companies have successively issued equity incentives and management changes this year. Corporate governance is expected to improve, and they are optimistic about the valuation and repair market of such companies. []
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) : the industry has ushered in a turning point of development! Three opportunities for the development of traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods
The industry has ushered in a turning point of development, focusing on traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods for medical insurance and immunization. We believe that there are three opportunities for the development of traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods: 1) since 2021, the price of upstream traditional Chinese medicine has continued to rise, especially the precious traditional Chinese medicine natural bezoar, Panax notoginseng and natural musk. There is a certain expectation of price increase for upstream raw materials + downstream products in the future; 2. Industry channel inventory clearing is coming to an end, and the superposition of price increase expectations has accelerated the downstream inventory turnover; 3) There are positive changes in the mixed reform of relevant state-owned enterprises and shareholders, and the future performance is expected to improve significantly. In addition, this week’s centralized collection of Chinese patent medicines in Hubei is mainly traditional Chinese medicine injections, and traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods are relatively immune to medical insurance. It is recommended to focus on Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Mayinglong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600993) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) , Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) . []
AVIC Securities: the valuation level of traditional Chinese medicine is reasonable! Listed companies with “true innovation” and “strong consumption” attributes
With the stabilization of epidemic prevention and control in China, the landing of centralized purchase and price reduction boots and the start of the price rise of traditional Chinese medicine, the bottom rebound of traditional Chinese medicine began to materialize in 2021. On the whole, the rise of the traditional Chinese medicine sector in this round comes from the valuation repair under the logic of marginal performance improvement. The price rise of traditional Chinese medicine industry chain products strengthens the expectation of performance improvement and the improvement of profitability. Meanwhile, compared with the previous rounds of centralized procurement, the average price reduction of the first centralized procurement products of the Chinese patent medicine alliance composed of 19 provinces was better than expected, catalyzing the plate market.
Standing at the current time, the valuation level of the Chinese medicine plate is still reasonable, there is no bubble, and it can continue to rise. Traditional Chinese medicine has reconstructed its own value system in the fields of chronic disease, disease prevention, health care and convalescence. At the same time, traditional Chinese medicine products with outstanding clinical effects will continue to shine like innovative new drugs. It is suggested to continue to focus on the track of traditional Chinese medicine innovation and consumer goods, and focus on the price expectation under the logic of inflation, Listed companies with the attributes of “true innovation” and “strong consumption” determined by marginal improvement and valuation repair logic avoid subject stocks with high short-term growth. Specifically, they can focus on Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited(600332) , Jiuzhitang Co.Ltd(000989) and Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) . []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : the regulatory norms of traditional Chinese medicine industry have been continuously strengthened there is a broad space for innovative development and consumption upgrading of traditional Chinese medicine
Driven by favorable policies for many years, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has ushered in new opportunities. In recent years, the state has successively issued relevant policies for the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry, incorporated traditional Chinese medicine into the national development plan, laid a solid foundation for the traditional Chinese medicine market, and further promoted the optimization of the traditional Chinese medicine market in terms of talent training, innovation and R & D, safety supervision and so on. Relevant policies have continuously promoted the coordinated development of Chinese and Western medicine, creating a better growth environment for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Chinese patent medicine and other products are included in the scope of centralized purchase, which is expected to promote the admission of traditional Chinese medicine into the hospital and broaden the large-scale channels. In addition, the traditional Chinese medicine industry is highly dependent on upstream traditional Chinese medicine raw materials. With the stricter supervision of traditional Chinese medicine and the rise of its price, it will increase the cost pressure of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises. Due to its obvious advantages in the OTC category, the main sales channels of traditional Chinese medicine are concentrated in the retail end and self-supporting rather than, and only a few are included in the centralized purchase list. Driven by the market demand and the attention of pharmacies, traditional Chinese medicine has high price maintenance ability.
The aggravation of the aging process and the increase of the incidence of chronic diseases continue to promote the market expansion. The epidemic situation and policy support improve the consumer recognition of traditional Chinese medicine and gradually show its consumption attribute. With the aggravation of population aging, the number of patients with chronic diseases continues to expand, and the rigid demand for traditional Chinese medicine continues to grow. At the same time, residents’ consumption structure has been upgraded, their disposable income has been improved, their awareness of health management affected by the epidemic has been greatly improved, and residents’ demand for disease prevention and treatment has increased. Traditional Chinese medicine plays an important role in the fight against covid-19 epidemic. At the same time, the regulatory norms of traditional Chinese medicine industry are constantly strengthened, and there is a broad space for innovative development and consumption upgrading of traditional Chinese medicine.
In terms of investment suggestions, we are optimistic about the follow-up market expansion of traditional Chinese medicine and the continuous growth of relevant enterprises, focusing on brand traditional Chinese medicine, partial consumption and great health. Key companies: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , etc. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : Chinese traditional medicine focuses on the four plates of traditional Chinese medicine formula particles, Chinese patent medicine, traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces and traditional Chinese medicine health
The Chinese medicine sector performed well and grasped the pro cyclical investment opportunities under the undervalued value of the sector. Since this year, more than 10 innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs, including the “three anti epidemic parties”, have been approved to promote the modernization of traditional Chinese medicine. Since this year, a number of policies to encourage the development of traditional Chinese medicine have been issued, which has opened a new business cycle of the sector. It is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities of the policy. Traditional Chinese medicine enterprises have been questioned by the market for a long time, mainly due to the uncertainty of product efficacy and the lack of ability to push new products. Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) layout of patented traditional Chinese medicine, continuous verification of product efficacy and innovation ability.
Focusing on the four sectors of traditional Chinese medicine formula particles, traditional Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces and traditional Chinese medicine great health, Chinese traditional medicine has successfully built the competitive advantage of coordinated development of the whole industry chain of traditional Chinese medicine under the effect of scale cost, and has strong benchmark products and a comprehensive platform for the whole industry. Its key distribution of formula granule business is the segment with the best growth in the field of traditional Chinese medicine and Chinese patent medicine in recent years. The company occupies about 50% of the market share in this field and is the absolute leader of this segment. The pilot policy of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules ended in November, and the sales scope has been greatly expanded from secondary and above traditional Chinese medicine hospitals to all qualified medical institutions. As an absolute leader in the industry, the company has deep barriers, and is expected to become the biggest beneficiary of market liberalization. Recommended purchase: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Chinese traditional medicine (0570. HK). []
YueKai Securities: quality improvement, upgrading, transition and innovation! Play the “power of Chinese patent medicine” on the international stage
Despite the recent good performance of the traditional Chinese medicine sector, the state is gradually strengthening the regulation of the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The purchase of traditional Chinese medicine with quantity directly refers to the varieties of traditional Chinese patent medicines with large dosage and high amount. Therefore, we believe that the state is guiding the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry from two aspects: on the one hand, strengthen the support of traditional Chinese medicine industry from the top-level policy design; On the other hand, through centralized procurement, Chinese patent medicine enterprises are forced to continuously improve quality and upgrade, transition and innovation, and further give play to the “power of Chinese patent medicine” on the international stage. (1) Innovative drugs: since 2015, policies such as drug review reform, MAH, priority review and approval and medical insurance payment policies have gradually improved the accessibility of innovative drugs. In this regard, first, we emphasize enterprises that pay attention to transition and innovation. Such enterprises have the characteristics of low valuation, stable profit and top R & D. It is recommended to pay attention to Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) , Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) , etc. Second, investors are suggested to pay attention to FIC enterprises in research with high R & D investment and strong innovation ability, and it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Cinda biology, Baiji Shenzhou, etc.
(2) Traditional Chinese medicine: catalyzed by multiple factors such as performance, policy and innovation, the traditional Chinese medicine sector has rebounded strongly recently. However, the state is gradually strengthening the regulation and control of the traditional Chinese medicine sector, and the procurement of traditional Chinese medicine directly refers to the varieties of traditional Chinese patent medicines with large dosage and high amount. For, we suggest investors pay attention to traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with exclusive varieties and layout in the international market, such as Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , etc.
(3) Vaccine: Omicron mat roll has brought new challenges to epidemic prevention all over the world. We believe that covid-19 vaccine will build an “epidemic prevention barrier” together with drugs. Considering that the country has significantly strengthened the third vaccination recently, investors are advised to pay attention to covid-19 pneumonia epidemic prevention targets, such as Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) . []
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : the status of traditional Chinese medicine has been raised to an unprecedented level the performance of the sector may be further improved
With the strong promotion of national policies, the status of traditional Chinese medicine has been raised to an unprecedented level. It is expected that the performance of the sector may be further improved with the continuous improvement of the industry pattern, the good epidemic prevention and control in China, and the downstream price increase driven by the rising price of traditional Chinese medicine. At present, the valuation of traditional Chinese medicine is reasonable: (1) under the reform of the review and approval system of traditional Chinese medicine, the approval of innovative traditional Chinese medicine is accelerated. 2021 is the most listed year in recent years. It is suggested to pay attention to the listed companies of high-quality innovative traditional Chinese medicine with strong comprehensive strength Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) ; (2) Some time-honored and OTC brand products have consumption attributes and avoid the medical insurance fee control policy. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc. []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : Traditional Chinese medicine is the treasure of the Chinese nation! Exposure of Chinese patent medicine market scale analysis of specific allocation ideas
The volume of traditional Chinese medicine is expected to increase, and the market of Chinese patent medicine is expected to grow rapidly; Traditional Chinese medicine has a long history in China. It is not only the treasure of the Chinese nation, but also an important part of traditional medicine in the world. According to the Euromonitor report, China’s Chinese patent medicine market grew rapidly from 2015 to 2019, and the market scale increased from about 625.2 billion yuan in 2015 to about 814.9 billion yuan in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of about 6.8%. In recent years, the state has intensively launched various policies to support and encourage the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine: the number of Chinese patent medicines in the basic medicine catalogue accounts for 39.12%, and the continuous promotion of the “986” goal is expected to stimulate the large-scale production of traditional Chinese medicine; Since 2021, the approval of innovative Chinese traditional medicine has accelerated. As of December 24, 2021, 11 innovative Chinese patent medicines have been approved. The price of raw materials in the upstream OTC market increases, and enterprises have the willingness and ability to raise prices, which is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price.
Specific allocation ideas: 1) in the field of traditional Chinese medicine: it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , and recommend Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ; 2) Innovative drugs and industrial chain: recommend Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) ; 3) Biotech innovative drugs: it is recommended to pay attention to kangfang biology and recommend Xinda biology and Yasheng medicine; 4) API field: it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) and Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) and so on; 5) Vaccine field: recommended Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ; 6) Growth hormone field: recommended Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) ; 7) Medical service field: recommend Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) , etc., and pay attention to Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , haijiya, etc; 8) Blood products: it is recommended to pay attention to Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) , recommend Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , etc; 9) Medical and aesthetic fields: recommend Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , etc; 10) Medical devices: recommended Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc. []
