Today (December 31), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, and then the stock index differentiation was obvious. The gem index rose rapidly and then fell lower. After the initial shock of the Shanghai index, it gradually pulled up, maintained the red market shock, and continued the pattern of strong Shanghai and weak Shenzhen in the afternoon.
In this regard, Huaxin Securities pointed out that there is a high probability of going out of the “good start” in 2022 after the festival. Therefore, in operation, it is recommended that investors mainly hold low-end shares for the festival, or hold low-end varieties and wait for the opportunity of rotation and promotion after the festival.
At the same time, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that under the environment of market shock, bargain hunting can be arranged in the restless direction in spring, which is biased towards consumption growth. In terms of industry allocation, there are three main investment lines: 1) growth sectors, such as new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.) and electronic industry chain; 2) the “Spring Festival effect”, with a certain price increase expected Baijiu plate; 3) The “real estate” sector, which benefited from the marginal change of the real estate policy of “implementing policies due to the city”, focused on the central enterprises with improved market share. Theme investment focuses on “double carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading”, etc.
plate:
I. concept of traditional Chinese medicine
AVIC Securities said that with the stabilization of epidemic prevention and control in China, the landing of centralized purchase and price reduction boots and the start of the rising tide of traditional Chinese medicine prices, the bottom rebound of the traditional Chinese medicine sector began to materialize in 2021. On the whole, the rise of the traditional Chinese medicine sector in this round comes from the valuation repair under the logic of marginal performance improvement. The price rise of traditional Chinese medicine industry chain products strengthens the expectation of performance improvement and the improvement of profitability. Meanwhile, compared with the previous rounds of centralized procurement, the average price reduction of the first centralized procurement products of the Chinese patent medicine alliance composed of 19 provinces was better than expected, catalyzing the plate market.
Standing at the current time, the valuation level of the Chinese medicine plate is still reasonable, there is no bubble, and it can continue to rise. Traditional Chinese medicine has reconstructed its own value system in the fields of chronic disease, disease prevention, health care and convalescence. At the same time, traditional Chinese medicine products with outstanding clinical effects will continue to shine like innovative new drugs. It is suggested to continue to focus on the track of traditional Chinese medicine innovation and consumer goods, and focus on the price expectation under the logic of inflation, Listed companies with the attributes of “true innovation” and “strong consumption” determined by marginal improvement and valuation repair logic avoid subject stocks with high short-term growth. Specifically, they can focus on Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited(600332) , Jiuzhitang Co.Ltd(000989) and Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) .
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that with the promotion of favorable policies for many years, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has ushered in new opportunities. In recent years, the state has successively issued relevant policies for the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry, incorporated traditional Chinese medicine into the national development plan, laid a solid foundation for the traditional Chinese medicine market, and further promoted the optimization of the traditional Chinese medicine market in terms of talent training, innovation and R & D, safety supervision and so on. Relevant policies have continuously promoted the coordinated development of Chinese and Western medicine, creating a better growth environment for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. We are optimistic about the follow-up market expansion of traditional Chinese medicine and the continuous growth of relevant enterprises, and focus on brand traditional Chinese medicine, partial consumption and great health. Key companies such as: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , etc.
II. Real estate development
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that although the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the painful period of the industry will continue, the policy positive signal is obvious. After a certain period of transmission, the liquidity at both ends of supply and demand is expected to be marginally loose. Three main investment lines in the post crisis era deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the painful period; Main line 2: more attention is paid to long-term business; Main line 3: revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises.
At the current time point, large and medium-sized real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance can not only seize the opportunity of land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing. They have significant comparative advantages and will fully benefit from the current downward cycle of the industry. In January, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) were recommended.
In addition, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) it is expected that after the Spring Festival next year, the competition pattern of the real estate industry will become clear, and the valuation of the property management sector will be repaired at that time. In the short term, the property management companies of state-owned enterprises enjoy higher certainty and valuation due to the soundness of related real estate enterprises. We are optimistic about poly property with equity incentive plan.
In the medium and long term, the operating efficiency of the property management company will determine its valuation. At this point, we believe that private property companies are more likely to win. Mainly optimistic about two categories: first, benefiting from the accelerated integration of the property industry and the significant increase in scale, the head property management company that can quickly start after exploring a mature product line in value-added services recommends country garden services. Second, it is a regional leading property company with high density of infrastructure management, good reputation and well-developed value-added services. After the liquidity crisis of the related real estate enterprises of these property companies is lifted, the future valuation repair is more flexible. Recommend Jinke service and Jianye new life.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that recently, new house sales rebounded. Combined with the previously disclosed real estate statistics, the industry began to show a weak recovery, mainly due to the recent relaxation of policies, especially the relaxation of credit, which provided a moderate bottom for the industry. However, considering the current credit environment of the industry and the serious decline in real estate sales, the downward inertia of the market is still, and the individual risk of real estate enterprises has not subsided. The industry fundamentals may reach the bottom twice in the first quarter of next year. It is expected that greater policy benefits may be brewing after the fundamentals continue to decline. Under the dual pressure of market sales and credit environment, the liquidation of the industry may accelerate, mergers and acquisitions may be more frequent, and the valuation and repair of real estate enterprises that continue to be optimistic about financial security.
After further analysis, the agency is optimistic about the first-line leader with stable performance and recommends Poly Real Estate and China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; As a second-line leader with flexible performance, we recommend Gemdale Corporation(600383) and Xuhui holding group. At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industries with rapid growth and strong consumption attributes, and recommend Xuhui Yongsheng service, country garden service, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , rongchuang service, Xingsheng business and Baolong business.
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