On March 10, silicon concept stocks rose collectively.
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . SH) rose 3.48%, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) ( Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) . SH) rose 4.83%, poly GCL energy (03800. HK) rose 10.85%, and Xinte energy (01799. HK) rose 8.61%; Even Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) ( Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) . SH), Xinyi Glass (00868. HK) and Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) ( Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) . SH), which have just announced their intention to enter silicon materials, rose by 7.91%, 4.23% and 1.25% respectively.
The previous night, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) all disclosed their recent operating performance or data. Among them, the performance of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) in the first two months of this year increased by 650% year-on-year, and the polysilicon sales of Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) in the first quarter of this year increased by more than 70% year-on-year.
At the same time, PV InfoLink also disclosed the latest data. The polysilicon compact increased by 1 yuan per kilogram compared with the previous week, and the average price reached 243 yuan / kg.
"At the beginning of the year, some silicon production capacity was released, and the photovoltaic production and installation capacity increased significantly compared with last year. In terms of external factors, India was rushing to install in the first three months of this year, and all countries attach great importance to energy security." For the recent rise of the photovoltaic sector, on March 10, Xie Tianhui, manager of ChuangJin Hexin new materials and new energy fund, said in an interview with the reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald that there is a price comparison effect within the new energy sector, and the photovoltaic logic is more smooth than electric vehicles in the near future.
first quarter data exceeded expectations
From the perspective of industry prosperity, silicon material has indeed been in the rising stage this year.
According to the latest data of PV InfoLink, on March 9, 2022, the average price of polysilicon compact was 243 yuan / kg, up 1 yuan from the previous week, and the highest quotation of silicon reached 248 yuan / kg.
After the decline of 269 yuan / kg on December 1 last year, the polysilicon compact fell all the way to 230 yuan / kg on December 29, a decrease of 14.5%. In the pessimistic expectation of the market, the silicon material stopped falling in early January 2022 and began to rebound on January 26.
From 230 yuan / kg to 243 yuan / kg at present, silicon material has increased by 5.65% in the past month.
Xie Tianhui believes that the rebound of silicon material price is the reason for the strong demand. "When the new capacity of silicon material is released, the price of silicon material rises slightly, indicating that the demand is really strong."
On the evening of March 9, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) announced that according to the company's preliminary accounting, "from January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 16 billion yuan, an increase of about 130% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 650% year-on-year."
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) relevant people said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that since this year, benefiting from the growth of demand in China and overseas photovoltaic market, the supply of high-purity crystalline silicon products has fallen short of demand, and the price of silicon material has increased slightly compared with the end of 2021. "At present, the capacity scale of the company is in the first place in the industry."
The company announced that the sales volume of polysilicon in the same quarter of last year was - 830737 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of - 830737 million tons, which is also expected to be .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) research report believes that by the end of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) 2021, the silicon production capacity has reached 180000 tons, and the cell production capacity has reached more than 40gw. "It is expected that the company's silicon material and battery chip shipments will maintain high growth this year, with growth rates of 60% - 70% and 25% - 35% respectively."
"Whether from the price rebound of silicon material or the data of Tongwei and Daquan, the data in the first quarter of this year are better than expected." A new industry analyst of a securities firm told the 21st Century Business Herald that the new capacity of silicon material in the first quarter of this year was 20000 tons, but the downstream installed capacity demand was strong, and the prosperity of silicon material exceeded expectations. "The data of Tongwei and Daquan have once again strengthened the expectation of high demand growth in the photovoltaic industry. The tight balance between supply and demand is an important reason for the rise of silicon price this year."
is the valuation expensive or not
Since the boom is so high, does the silicon concept stock have investment value at present? Is the valuation expensive or not?
Excluding new players entering the track, the silicon material enterprises currently listed are Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , poly GCL energy and new special energy.
From the secondary market on March 10, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) rose 3.48% to close at 44.86 yuan, with the highest intraday rise to 46.48 yuan, which reached a new high in the year Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) rose 4.83% to close at 62.73 yuan, the highest intraday rise to 64.20 yuan, which also set a new high for the year.
In the Hong Kong stock market, poly GCL energy rose 10.85% to close at HK $2.86, and Xinte energy rose 8.61% to close at HK $17.16.
Data show that as of March 10, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) had a total market value of 201960 billion, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) had a total market value of 120755 billion, poly GCL energy had a total market value of 77.503 billion and new special energy had a total market value of 24.539 billion.
According to the performance express of 2021 disclosed by Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) previously, the net profit attributable to the parent company last year was about 8.203 billion yuan, and the static P / E ratio was about 24.62 times compared with the current market value Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) last year, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.724 billion yuan, with a static P / E ratio of about 21.10 times compared with the current market value; Last year, the net profit attributable to the parent company of poly GCL energy was about HK $5 billion, and the static P / E ratio was about 15.50 times; Xinte energy also made a profit of no less than HK $5 billion last year, and its static P / E ratio was only 4.91 times.
"If you look at the dynamic P / E ratio, the valuation of these silicon concept stocks is lower, but the valuation is low, is it worth investing?" A private equity fund in Jiangsu told the 21st Century Business Herald that although the current supply of silicon is tight, a huge amount of production capacity will be released in the second half of this year, "and it is difficult to say whether the downstream can digest so much production capacity."
Statistics show that Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) currently has a production capacity of 180000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon. At the same time, the 50000 ton project of "Baotou phase II" is under construction, and the 100000 ton project of Leshan phase III has also been started. After being put into operation, the production capacity of high-purity crystalline silicon will reach 330000 tons.
"The process technology of silicon material link is difficult, the expansion cycle is long, the investment intensity is high, the production control is difficult, and there are high industry barriers. However, the downstream expansion is relatively fast and the capacity scale is large, resulting in the mismatch between upstream and downstream supply and demand and the relative shortage of silicon material." The above Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) relevant persons told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the new capacity of the industry needs a certain construction cycle, and the output can be effectively released only after the capacity climbing and stable operation are completed.
However, Xie Tianhui told the 21st Century Business Herald that silicon materials will release new production capacity every quarter this year. By the second half of the year or the end of the year, "it will be relieved compared with now, but it is still the most tense link in several links."
In her opinion, the photovoltaic industry has investment value, and the focus of each link is different. "Silicon materials and silicon chips are volume increase, battery chips are technological change, and the profitability of components may rise after the release of silicon production capacity. In addition, there is a price comparison effect within the new energy sector, and the photovoltaic logic in the recent period is more smooth than that of electric vehicles."
several securities companies raised their performance forecasts
According to the data, in the fourth quarter of last year, at least 10 funds under e fund increased their positions in Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) by more than one million shares, of which e fund Yuxiang Return Bond Fund and e fund Ruicheng flexible increased their positions by more than 10 million shares.
The above-mentioned new industry analyst of a securities firm believes that the endurance of terminal demand for photovoltaic costs in the first quarter of this year exceeded expectations. "The institutions that added positions in the fourth quarter of last year should continue to hold them and will not easily reduce their holdings, and the performance forecasts of securities companies for silicon related stocks have been raised recently."
Taking Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) as a typical example, we can see the attitude of the organization towards the silicon material industry.
On March 10, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) raised its 2022 net profit forecast for Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) from RMB 12.001 billion to RMB 140.02, corresponding to 13.9 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) gives a performance forecast of RMB 14.8 billion in 2022, corresponding to PE within 13, maintaining the "buy" rating; Guosheng securities gave Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) 2022 a performance forecast of 16.518 billion yuan, corresponding to the PE valuation of 11.8 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) is more optimistic, raising Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 2022 to 17.3 billion yuan, maintaining the target price of 80 yuan, corresponding to 21 times 2022pe, and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Compared with the closing price of RMB 44.86 on March 10, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) the target price of RMB 80 predicted by Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) still has more than 40% room.
"We are not so optimistic, but we still think that Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) this year's performance should be about 15 billion, corresponding to 13 times PE, which is reasonable." The above-mentioned Jiangsu private equity fund person told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the silicon material price is likely to start loosening at the end of March this year, "because the certainty of the new capacity of silicon material in April is very strong, and the price is expected to decline faster at that time."
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) research report believes that with the loosening of silicon material price and the launch of China's ground power station project, the terminal demand will also recover and feed back to the upstream. Therefore, the possibility of silicon material price falling sharply is small, and the low point from April to May is expected to fall to about 200000 yuan / ton.
The above Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) relevant persons said that throughout the year, silicon material is still a tight supply link in the main photovoltaic industry chain. "Demand determines the price, and the price of silicon material will be dynamically adjusted with the changes of downstream and terminal demand. The company will try its best to ensure the supply of high-quality silicon material."
