On March 10, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) held a performance conference to explain the business logic behind the core data in detail.
In the four years from 2018 to 2021, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 13.22%, and the cost income ratio has decreased by 2.02 percentage points. Whether the strong growth curve can be continued this year, investors pay attention to business structure, asset liability management, risk mitigation, bad debt clearing, housing related exposure, market value management and other dimensions.
Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) one by one.
before the official opening of the document, quickly resume the operation highlights of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2021 and outline Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2021:
The importance of 2021 to Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) lies in that it is the closing point of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) first five-year retail transformation and an excellent verification of the effectiveness of the bank's many new models (such as "five in one" in the field of retail breakthrough, refinement to the public, reconstruction of new momentum in the capital industry, etc.).
Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2021 three features that cannot be ignored:
First. Stick to the retail label firmly: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) retail attribute has been strengthened unprecedentedly, and the pattern of "June 4th opening" of large retail and large-scale corporate has been finalized. In terms of revenue contribution, the proportion of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) retail business revenue increased from 30.6% in 2016 to 58.0% in 2021.
Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) took five years to transform its retail strategy, becoming the third joint-stock bank with AUM exceeding 3 trillion, reaching 3.18 trillion, after China Merchants Bank (reaching 10 trillion in July 2021) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (disclosed as 3.5 trillion in 2021 semi annual report).
In the field of large retail, both basic retail customers and private banks, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) have shown the operating results that make the market have some memory: its AUM of private bank customers has reached 1.4 trillion, which is no less than that of some large state-owned banks; The number of its wealth customers is close to 1.1 million, three times that of the end of 2016; Its retail customers have entered the 100 million club, reaching 118 million.
Second, strengthen the deposit moat: deposit bank, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) trying to continuously optimize the amount and price of deposits The average cost rate of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) of deposits is declining, and the cost income ratio in 2021 is 28.30%, a year-on-year decrease of 19 BP This is not easy for a bank focusing on retail business The average daily total amount of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) deposits increased by 10.8%, of which demand deposits increased by 18.2%, accounting for 37.3% from 34.8% in 2020.
Third, build a stable risk defense dam: since 18 years later, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) the provision coverage has shown a trend of increasing step by step, reaching 288% in 2021, an increase of 7 percentage points compared with 2020. On the basis of substantial loan write offs in the past, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2021 will continue to write off 40.4 billion yuan. The bank recovered 32.8 billion of non-performing assets, an increase of 25.7%. The amount of loans written off was 15.9 billion, an increase of 21.3%.
ushered in a good turning point at the beginning, and six key points of this year's work
From 2018 to 2021, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) over the past four years, the compound annual growth rate of revenue has reached the level of over 13%. This data is not easy in the industry. Investors are most concerned about whether this growth rate can continue this year.
From the answers of Xie Yonglin, chairman of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) to different questions, we can extract some words about Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) this year's "good start". Together, a good start is emerging.
The first is the repair of credit card performance. According to Xie Yonglin, the revenue growth of credit cards has recovered to 20% in the first two months of this year.
How important is credit card to Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) personal loans amounted to 1.91 trillion, accounting for 62.4% of the total loans. It is precisely because of this that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) retail brand is significant. Personal loans are mainly divided into housing mortgage (medium and long-term loans) and consumer finance. By the end of 2021, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) credit card accounts receivable had a balance of 621448 billion yuan, accounting for 20.3% of bank wide loans and 32.53% of personal loans. It is the absolute leader in the consumer loan sector, and its proportion is close to that of personal housing loans.
At the end of 2021, the number of Ping An credit cards in circulation exceeded 70 million, and the total transaction volume of credit cards was close to 380 billion. In short, if retail is the big engine of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) the consumer finance is the big engine of retail, and credit card is the big engine of consumer finance.
Xie Yonglin uses the word "recovery" to indicate that the growth rate of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) credit card revenue decreased in a certain period of time in 2021, which is related to Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) initiative.
"Last year, we significantly tightened the access threshold and quota management of credit cards, so retail is obviously under pressure on the revenue of credit cards, which is our initiative. After the adjustment in the second quarter, the revenue has returned to growth in the fourth quarter," Xie Yonglin said. In addition, it was revealed that the trust and non-standard product access of the private wealth management line were tightened together, which also led to a decline in the revenue of private wealth consignment.
Secondly, bancassurance made a "good start". Xie Yonglin revealed that the upgrading of bancassurance products and systems has driven the improvement of the production capacity of traditional teams. This year has made a "good start" from December last year to the end of this month, and the medium income of bancassurance has increased by 30% year-on-year. "Last night, we were also building some bancassurance product systems, including the bancassurance Family Trust launched yesterday. This is a new product system, which constructs a family trust plan around annuity and lifelong life insurance. We should connect bank trust and life insurance. We can't just sell the rate of return all day. We sell a service plan. For the new Bancassurance team, we put them Defined as' a wealth management team that understands insurance '. " Xie Yonglin said.
Thirdly, the consumer finance sector continued its high growth trend: "new one loan" issuance increased by 38%, and it had reached 158981 billion yuan by the end of last year; The balance of auto finance loans increased by 22%, and its balance as of the end of last year was 301.23 billion yuan. It is reported that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) since last year, it has focused on new business tracks for used cars and new cold source cars.
about the business priorities in 2022, Xiang Youzhi, vice president and chief financial officer of Ping An, introduced that there are six key points on the bank's work list: digital operation, risk control, asset liability operation, retail business, corporate business and interbank capital
When talking about the question of the Chinese reporter of the securities times securities firm on "how to ensure that the net interest margin of the bank is in the desirable range under the downward trend this year", Xiang Youzhi's answer, "do a good job in the portfolio allocation of assets" is a high-frequency word.
\u3000\u3000 "Over the past few years, the proportion of our retail loans has gradually increased, reaching 62% in 2021. This portfolio should be relatively stable at present. Last year, mortgage and home mortgage loans increased faster, with an increase of more than 20%, which is helpful for the portfolio management of our whole business. Although the interest rate spread has a downward trend, we should try our best to be better. What should we do? On the liability side, we should pay more attention to deposits We have higher internal requirements for the reduction of this. We should continue to improve the debt structure and put the balance of volume and price in the most important position. This is emphasized in our internal resource allocation and assessment. On the asset side, we should pay attention to how to do a good job in the portfolio allocation of assets, not only to support the real economy, but also to ensure that the risk is controlled. Loan is a part of the whole asset portfolio. We should allocate the asset portfolio well to maintain a certain return on our market side. In this way, we can make the interest margin perform better. ", Xiang Youzhi said.
show the real estate card: detailed explanation of China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) , Baoneng, Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) risk exposure
At the press conference on March 10, in response to analysts' questions about the risks of housing related business, Guo Shibang, vice president of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) disassembled the composition and risk points of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) in detail. In fact, in the 2021 annual report, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) has specially opened a chapter called "real estate risk management".
At the end of 2021, the real estate business exposure in Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) statement (the balance of all businesses bearing credit risk such as real and contingent credit, proprietary bond investment and proprietary non-standard investment) totaled 341089 billion yuan. The balance of public real estate loans accounted for 288923 billion yuan, accounting for 9.4% of the total loans. Guo Shibang disassembled the main components of public real estate loans: real estate development loans of 115.2 billion, operating property loans of 71.4 billion and M & A loans of 74.3 billion.
The off balance sheet real estate business (i.e. the balance of financial capital contribution, entrusted loan, cooperative agency management, consignment trust and fund, lead underwriting debt financing instruments and other businesses that do not bear credit risk) totaled 120686 billion yuan, of which 68.9 billion were sold on a commission basis, and the specific product project scale at the bottom of the consignment was 55.4 billion yuan.
For the on balance sheet real estate business that bears credit risk, Guo Shibang's core argument is that the asset quality of public real estate loans is within a controllable range. His argument has five points:
First. By the end of 2021, the non-performing rate of the bank's loans to public real estate was 0.22%, basically the same as that at the end of the previous year, 0.49 percentage points lower than that of the bank's corporate loans;
Second. Loans for real estate development account for only 3.8% and 11.6% of corporate loans;
Third. The underlying assets of development loans are in good condition and are effectively mortgaged. More than 90% are residential project development, and 96% are distributed in the urban areas of first and second tier cities, Dawan district and Yangtze River Delta;
Fourth. Among other real estate loans, mature property loans account for more than 80%, and the risk is more controllable;
Fifth. At present, a judicial settlement has been reached with Baoneng, and the court has also issued a mediation letter. Among them, the 5.4 billion Baoneng city project with the largest amount can enter the judicial auction execution link immediately, and the completed part can be listed and sold immediately. According to the latest repayment plan and disposal plan, if the sales go well, it is expected to form a large pressure drop in 2022.
As for the consignment business that does not bear credit risk, Guo Shibang said that he is determined to safeguard the interests of investors. He emphasized three points:
First: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) consignment products account for only 7.6%, which is relatively low.
Second: the product penetrates, and the regional layout of the bottom project is relatively good, 94% of which are distributed in the urban areas of the first and second tier cities, Dawan district and the Yangtze River Delta.
Third: the consignment business mainly focuses on China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) and Baoneng. At present, some product managers have taken judicial measures to realize assets as soon as possible. There are 5 projects that Ping An Bao can sell on a commission basis. The bottom of each project is relatively high-quality, and the pressure is between 65-70%. Taking Baoneng automobile project as an example, the product balance of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) consignment sales is 2.5 billion, with a total of 7 mortgages, and the overdue mortgage rate is no more than 57%. No more than 64% in phase II Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) has enforced the seizure of 100% equity and bank debts of the project company. There are 2 other products, totaling 2.3 billion, with high safety guarantee.
In addition, in response to the public opinion event of Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) , Guo Shibang voluntarily disclosed that it was a problem asset of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) years ago, and most of the Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) risk assets currently held have been written off.
The reason is: Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) was sued by Evergrande life for failing to deliver the house on time. In 2016, Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) and its wholly-owned subsidiaries raised 8 billion yuan from Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) Huizhou Branch and Jianghai Securities Co., Ltd.
Guo Shibang said: Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) has fully made provision for the project, and the provision coverage rate is close to 90%, and most of them have been written off. At present, Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) 1.3 billion repayment has been received according to Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
talk about share price: "14 yuan Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) should be cherished"
after the release of the annual report of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2021, the view of many analysts is that the market seems to be pessimistic about the banking sector in terms of performance growth, asset quality and other indicators.
Summary Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) management's unanimous confidence in the performance conference based on their respective areas of responsibility is that the bank is expected to enter the profit accelerated release cycle on the premise that the retail business continues to grow rapidly and the corporate business is renewed.
Fortunately, the stock market gave face on the day of the press conference. The banking sector swept away the haze and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) share price increased by 5.27%. How long this "red" can last in the volatile market has also become a hot issue at the press conference. In response to the question about the growth of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) valuation, Zhou Qiang, the Secretary of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) said with a smile that "we should cherish Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , which is 14 yuan".
\u3000\u3000 "I think from the perspective of the banking sector, the recent two sessions have made it clear that the main tone is to broaden credit and stabilize growth. I think this is still a positive and optimistic situation for the banking sector. In terms of the market, last year, everyone was chasing growth stocks together, and this year may also need to switch. It's the turn of a relatively simple and undervalued but able to keep a home and live a life like bank stocks Now. It's not good to evaluate individual stocks, but I have great confidence in Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) myself. Although this wave of decline is a bit tragic, and there may be doubts in the market. In the final analysis, whether the bank is a risk aversion sector or a risk exit sector, today's reply from the management is to give you a positive and positive signal, "Zhou Qiang said.
In Zhou Qiang's opinion, the confidence of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) management has been reflected in the process of collective stock increase last year. He said bluntly that "the increase price of more than 18 yuan is our management's judgment of the bottom of our own valuation".
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) financial group, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) bank research team and other securities companies gave Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) a positive outlook for the performance of 2022 China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) financial group recommends that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) will seize the opportunity of upgrading and reforming the life insurance market this year, rapidly promote the construction of a wealth management team with "high quality, high production capacity and high income" and understand insurance, and further expand the team of outstanding talents on the basis of the current team of 1000 private bankers + 150 as investment advisers, Open up a new track for the sustainable growth of private banking and wealth management business. Despite the poor performance of the public fund market since the beginning of the year, as a comprehensive wealth management platform, in the face of severe market fluctuations, providing customers with diversified wealth management products will help promote Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) medium income growth.
The prediction period of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) bank research team is more long-term, and it believes that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) is expected to achieve a compound growth of 20% + in the next 2-3 years. There are three main points: first, the team is upgraded. The Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) wealth management team has more room to catch up with the head bank in terms of number and qualification (short transformation time). It is expected that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) will focus on building its wealth management team in the next 2-3 years, with double improvement in number and quality. Second, product upgrading, enrich and optimize product shelves. The third is the upgrading of China and Taiwan. The current problem facing the banking industry is that there are customers in the third and fourth tier cities, but there is no matching financial manager Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) empowers customer managers through science and technology, solves the contradiction between supply and demand, and sinks high-quality services and low costs to low-level cities and mass customers.
