Hotspot tracking:
The volatile situation abroad has led to the rise of overseas nickel prices. In terms of raw materials, due to the continuous decline of foreign nickel inventory and the risk of spot liquidity of Russian nickel caused by the Russian Ukrainian war, the risk of LME run increased and the overseas nickel price increased significantly. At present, the nickel import window is closed, and the increase of China's nickel spot is limited, which is expected to affect China's nickel market in the short term.
Lithium salt in ternary cathode materials increased significantly. Specifically, the latest price of lithium hydroxide was 459500 yuan / ton, up + 53.53% month on month. Nickel sulfate was 48000 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 45.21%. The 1GWh ncm811 cathode material uses about 787.5 tons of lithium hydroxide, 413 tons of manganese sulfate, 750 tons of cobalt sulfate and 3086 tons of nickel sulfate. Then the cost of ncm811 cathode material per GWH was + 42.62% month on month and + 158.32% year on year. Compared with the same period last year, the cost of nickel sulfate, lithium hydroxide, cobalt sulfate and manganese sulfate increased by 3844 yuan, 24253 yuan, 1095 yuan and 117 yuan respectively; The whole vehicle cost increased by 29311 yuan.
The price difference between raw materials and finished products of ternary cathode narrowed. The price difference between raw materials and finished products of 1GWh ternary cathode was about 69.97 million yuan, which was - 40.77% compared with the previous month and - 37.04% compared with the same period last year. The rapid rise of lithium salt price in the past month has a great impact on cathode enterprises, and it is expected that the cost increase will be gradually transmitted to the downstream.
Ternary battery. Compared with the same period last year, the cost of positive electrode (ncm811) of 1GWh ternary battery (ncm811) increased by 25840 yuan, the cost of negative electrode increased by 900 yuan, the cost of electrolyte increased by 539334 yuan, the cost of diaphragm increased by 114 yuan, and the cost of lithium battery binder increased by 539634 yuan The whole vehicle cost increased by 37643 yuan. It is expected that the price fluctuation of power battery will be gradually transmitted to the downstream, and the price of new energy vehicles is expected to rise one after another.
Lithium iron phosphate. For 1GWh lithium iron phosphate battery, compared with the same period last year, the cost of positive electrode increased by 20189 yuan, the cost of negative electrode increased by 996 yuan, the cost of electrolyte increased by 4035 yuan and the cost of diaphragm increased by 114 yuan; The cost of lithium battery binder increased by 5396 yuan. The whole vehicle cost increased by 30731 yuan. Compared with ternary lithium battery, the overall price and increase are low, which still has great advantages.
Future forecast: at present, the circulation supply of nickel salt and cobalt salt at the supply end is tight, and the supply of lithium resources is still tight, resulting in the continuous rise of lithium salt market. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle industry chain has gradually matured. Benefiting from the continuous participation of traditional vehicle enterprises, the continuous release of high-quality new energy vehicles, the increase of endurance demand and the rising oil price, it is expected that new energy vehicles will continue to grow steadily. However, lithium battery costs will continue to rise in the future, which may gradually push up vehicle prices and compress corporate profits. For the route selection of ternary and lithium iron phosphate, high nickel ternary is expected to maintain a high market share before reaching the bottleneck of endurance demand because the price and price increase per GWH are higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery.
Investment suggestion: the power battery industry chain has high industry barriers and obvious Matthew effect. The key measurement standards are production capacity and technology. Some of these links are affected by the uncertainty of the future development direction, which may have a significant adverse impact. Therefore, focus on the enterprises with a solid position in the industry and clear future development potential, such as nickel, cobalt, lithium resources and battery recycling enterprises: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) .
Risk tips: policy changes; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; The sales volume of new energy vehicles was lower than expected.
