Core view:
The sales volume of 22m2 excavators slightly exceeded expectations, and the decline in growth rate narrowed month on month. According to the statistics of the Construction Machinery Association, the sales volume of 22m2 excavators was 24500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, slightly exceeding the CME prediction data (the sales volume was 22000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22%); Among them, the sales volume in China was 17100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%; 7400 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 97.7%. Excluding the disturbance caused by the Spring Festival, the sales volume of 22m1-2 excavators totaled 40100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%; Among them, the sales volume in China was 25300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%; 14800 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 101%.
China's excavator sales fell for 11 consecutive months, and the forward-looking indicators improved significantly. According to the data of Construction Machinery Association, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales fell for 11 consecutive months from 21m4 to 22m2; The growth rate decline of 22m2 was 17.7 PCT faster than that of 22m1 According to Komatsu's official website, the operating hours of 22m2 Komatsu excavator were 47.9, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, realizing the first turn after 10 consecutive months of negative growth; According to wind data, 22m1 increased medium and long-term loans by 2.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%, which narrowed rapidly compared with the second half of 2021. In February, the decline of medium and long-term loans narrowed rapidly, and the number of operating hours changed from negative to positive. We believe that under the background of steady growth, the overall growth rate of the construction machinery industry may continue to show a repair trend in the future.
The export volume continued to increase, and the prosperity of overseas markets was high. According to the data of the Construction Machinery Association, the export sales volume of excavators has maintained a growth rate of more than 80% since 21m3, and doubled in many months, indicating that the demand in the overseas market continues to be high. Accelerate the process of globalization and internationalization of China's leading mechanical engineering.
Taking Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) as an example, the company's overseas market expansion has achieved remarkable results. According to the company's financial report, 21h1 company has doubled its growth in Asia, Australia, America and Africa. We believe that the high outlook of the overseas market can stabilize the fluctuation of the sector's downward cycle in China in the short term, and the medium term is a solid foundation for internal and external resonance.
Under the background of "steady growth", construction machinery is expected to usher in marginal improvement. The national standing committee meeting held in January 22 proposed to put steady growth in a more prominent position. We believe that the decline in the growth rate of 22m2 new medium and long-term loans has narrowed rapidly, reflecting the financial strength under the background of "steady growth"; With the recovery of downstream demand in the future, the prosperity margin of construction machinery industry will improve.
Investment suggestion: under the background of "steady growth", we believe that the demand for construction machinery is expected to gradually improve in 2022, the Chinese market will stabilize, and the overseas market will be underpinned by high prosperity. At the current time point, pay close attention to the repair of the profit side of the main engine manufacturers and parts enterprises after the industry downturn last year. We suggest paying attention to the global competitive leader of main engine manufacturers Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and parts Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) and Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) .
Risk tip: the marginal growth rate of overseas exports is downward, and the landing of China's "steady growth" is less than expected; The recovery of real estate and infrastructure investment is less than expected; The fluctuation of gross profit margin caused by industry price war.
