Current investment tips:
The cooling of fixed increase issuance is obvious, and it is more difficult to raise funds through bidding. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the weakness of the secondary market, the issuance of fixed increase of A-Shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen decreased significantly in February 2022. There were 21 listed fixed increase projects, with a month on month decrease of 11 and a year-on-year decrease of 9; The total amount raised was 25.411 billion yuan, down 46.72% month on month and 50.79% year on year respectively, accounting for 33.22% of A-share equity financing in the same period year on year. Among them, the number of bidding projects decreased by 9 month on month, with a total fund-raising of 211.27 yuan, a month on month decrease of 29.07%; The number of projects fully raised by bidding accounted for 62.50%, down 17.5pct month on month, and the monthly fund-raising rate was 84.26%, down 10.93pct month on month In February, five pricing projects were listed, raising a total of 4.284 billion yuan, a decrease of 76.08% month on month.
The bidding discount space declined, and the number of projects issued at the reserve price accounted for 25%. From the perspective of subscription heat, the average discount of the issue price of 16 bidding projects listed in February from the benchmark price was 6.08%, and the discount rate continued to decline, with a month on month decrease of 5.99pct; Four of them, including Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) and others, were issued at a base price of 20% off the benchmark price, accounting for 25%, up 9 percentage points month on month, but still lower than the proportion of about 50% in the whole year of last year. From the perspective of discount safety cushion, the share price of bidding projects rose by an average of 9.53% in the first 10 trading days, and the final issue price was reduced by an average of 13.18% compared with the closing price on the issue day, slightly narrowed by 0.50PCT month on month. The discount safety cushion was basically stable, of which the discount rate of five bidding projects exceeded 20%.
The pace of audit slowed down, and the monthly meeting rate was 100%. In February, the number of projects that passed the meeting decreased by 6 to 11 month on month, and the number of projects registered by the CSRC decreased by 10 to 11 month on month, a total of 22 and 16 month on month. From the perspective of audit cycle, the average period from the initial plan to the meeting of 11 projects reviewed in February was 218 days, an increase of 25 days month on month; The cycle of the 11 projects registered and approved by the CSRC in the current month was shortened by 8.33% to 22 days month on month. In February, no fixed increase items will be rejected, and the passing rate is 100%, up 10.53pct month on month.
60% of the bidding projects to be lifted have floating profits, with an average floating rate of return of nearly 10%. As of March 9, 2022, 610 bidding projects have been issued under the new refinancing regulations, distributed in 28 Shenwan industries. Among them, 424 bidding projects have been lifted under the new regulations, and the average absolute rate of return is 23.15%, of which 71.70% of the project income is positive. However, after excluding the discount rate, the average rate of return is significantly reduced to 5.99%, and the proportion of positive income projects is also reduced to 43.87%, The safety cushion effect of fixed increase discount is still significant. Based on the closing price on March 9, 2022, among the 186 bidding projects that have been issued and have not been lifted under the new regulations, 59.68% have floating profits, with an average floating rate of return of 9.65%. However, after excluding the discount rate, the proportion of positive income projects from the issuance date to the statistical date has decreased to 29.57%, and the average floating absolute rate of return has decreased to – 6.97%.
The funds for lifting the ban increased month on month, and the winning rate of bidding for lifting the ban exceeded 80%. In February, 45 fixed increase projects were lifted for the first time, with an increase of 4 month on month, including 39 bidding projects; A total of 61.8 billion yuan was raised in the month, an increase of 16.33% month on month. Assuming it is sold at the closing price on the lifting day, 82.05% of the 39 bidding projects lifted in the current month have a positive absolute return, with an average of 18.54%, a month on month decrease of 14.59pct, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 27.27pct in the same period From the perspective of the industry, the absolute rate of return of the lifting of the ban in the building decoration, mechanical equipment and automobile industries is high, which are 42.68%, 42.44% and 37.12% respectively, and still ranks among the top three in the industry after excluding the discount rate. The absolute rate of return of the lifting of the ban in the media and leisure service industries came to the bottom, as low as – 16.97% and – 1.47% respectively, both underperforming the growth of the industry in the same period.
Comprehensively considering the purpose of fixed increase, the industry competition pattern, performance, valuation, wind consensus expectation and other factors, sort out the objects that have passed the review of the development and Examination Commission and the CSRC in February 2022 but have not been issued. It is suggested to pay attention to Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc.
Risk tips: the review progress of fixed increase is less than expected, the stock price fluctuation in the secondary market, the adjustment of issuance system, etc.
