As the last "pure land" in the field of public bonds, urban investment bonds have become the focus of "group" allocation of various institutions. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the internal qualifications of the urban investment sector are increasingly differentiated.
Most people in the industry believe that with the arrival of the wave of "new infrastructure", if they want to take advantage of this round of "Dongfeng" to accelerate their transformation and development without being eliminated, the urban investment company needs to actively implement the intelligent transformation of traditional infrastructure and take no responsibility in making up for weaknesses in the field of old infrastructure, Carefully select the way that is most in line with the actual situation of the project and conducive to maximizing benefits (including social and economic benefits), and finally realize the improvement of self hematopoietic ability.
urban investment ushers in the transformation opportunity
It is undeniable that at a time when the real estate sector is "full of sorrows" and there is no trend reversal, urban investment bonds are still a safer high-quality target in the eyes of various institutions.
Especially in the environment where the construction of new infrastructure (hereinafter referred to as "new infrastructure") has been repeatedly emphasized by the policy level, as the main force of local urban development and construction, the main body of urban investment has ushered in rare new opportunities for development.
In fact, under the catalysis of the outbreak of covid-19 pneumonia and the influence of factors such as the transformation of "old and new kinetic energy" and industrial transformation and upgrading, the new infrastructure seems to be regarded by the industry as a "heavy tool" for China's steady growth and development. So, what role should local urban investment play? Is it to continue to play the role of government financing platform under the traditional mode? Or undertake the agent construction task of "smart" infrastructure and become the main body of technology R & D and innovation? Or is it transformed into an industry leading platform?
"From the perspective of urban investment company, we think it is more suitable for it to participate in new infrastructure projects in the following aspects, including new infrastructure with high-tech attributes, such as the construction of big data center (external forces can be sought to overcome technical difficulties) ； Intelligent transformation of traditional infrastructure, such as smart parking lot, smart road network, smart Park, smart scenic spot, etc; Projects to make up for deficiencies in the old infrastructure field or governance system, such as intercity high-speed rail and urban rail transit, as well as livelihood infrastructure projects such as hospitals and nursing homes. " Yuan Quanquan, analyst of CSI PENGYUAN rating research and development department, said, "for urban investment companies, no matter what projects they are involved in, they must meet three basic conditions, namely 'no new government debt', 'government expenditure responsibility included in the budget' and 'strict and standardized cooperation procedures', otherwise it will be difficult to avoid legal risks in the implementation and follow-up operation of the project."
Although it is imperative to decouple the credit of urban investment from local governments, it is not a day to complete the "cutting". In the view of insiders, in the future, local urban investment needs to do well in the three articles of "promoting local urban development, doing a good business with the government and enterprises, and serving the needs of the society and people's livelihood". For those who have entered the site, they should focus on how to further do large-scale, collect high-quality data resources, and speed up commercial realization; For those who are eager to watch, they should focus on how to find the correct positioning, obtain an admission ticket and establish their own core advantages.
funds favor the "security" target
It is worth mentioning that since 2021, with the increase of supervision and the continuous exposure of credit risk, especially the continuous exposure of high-grade credit risk, the number of rating increases in the bond market has decreased significantly, while the number of rating downgrades has increased significantly.
According to the statistics of CSI PENGYUAN, among the only 38 rating increase subjects (a year-on-year decrease of 83.6%), 17 are urban investment subjects (accounting for 44.7%), which are mainly affected by the increase of external support (government capital injection, shareholder capital increase, financial subsidies, etc.) and regional economic growth. In contrast, the ratings of only sporadic entities in various industrial sectors have been raised, the largest of which is the electrical equipment industry, but only three entities have been raised.
"Even if the voice of 'urban investment platform standing on the cliff of historical default' is heard, I still believe that the 'first order' of urban investment default is difficult to appear in the short term." An institutional trader admitted in an interview with reporters, "At a time of panic, the impact and negative impact of default on the regional financial ecology is self-evident. Given that real estate anxiety almost runs through 2021 and seems to be getting worse and worse, considering the steady progress of new infrastructure, the current preference of various institutions for urban investment bonds can be seen in the hot subscription status of their primary market."
"Since the Yongmei incident, the net financing of urban investment bonds in regional provinces represented by Tianjin and Yunnan has decreased significantly. At the same time, the large differentiation of middle and low-grade interest rates also shows that the scale of capital investment in low-grade urban investment bonds is extremely limited. However, it is undeniable that compared with other credit bonds, urban investment bonds are still relatively safe after experiencing the risk of valuation adjustment and regional differentiation All products. " Mingming, chief fixed income analyst of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department, said, "with the policy rotation and the differentiation of regional interest rate spread, the market is expected to gradually find a balance between avoiding risk and obtaining income. In 2022, the performance of urban investment bonds will also seek a balance between steady growth and risk prevention."
it is recommended to pay attention to the credit enhancement subject
There is no doubt that the qualification differentiation of urban investment platform has become the general trend. Especially in terms of the distribution of urban investment regions that have raised their ratings this year, the statistics provided by CSI PENGYUAN show that there are four in Jiangsu Province and two in Zhejiang, Hebei, Jiangxi and Henan respectively.
"Considering that the downward economic growth after the tightening cycle is easy to trigger the demand for infrastructure investment to drive the economy, and then open a new round of urban investment cycle, we believe that the stable growth tone in 2022 will largely protect the debt rolling of local government financing platforms, that is, urban investment is still a rare high-quality target." Say it clearly.
In terms of allocation strategy, the above traders said, "The risk in Yunnan Guizhou region is still exposed and not fully cleared. Although it remains to be seen whether the urban investment public bonds in this region will default in the future, the rating of urban investment entities with weak qualification or weakened external support in the region has been continuously adjusted, which has become a probability event. Secondly, it is affected by the strategic contraction of the real estate industry (the pace of land acquisition slows down) In the future, institutions still need to be vigilant against urban investment platforms in areas with high financial dependence on land, because once the finance is tight, it is likely to affect the collection of accounts receivable of urban investment and the external support of local governments to urban investment. "
"At present, the valuation of urban investment bonds in strong regions is low and the spread protection is thin. It is suggested that the follow-up allocation can focus on the urban investment bonds with strong credit enhancement. This will essentially be a credit sinking strategy with a certain margin of safety." Liu Yu, chief fixed income analyst of the development research center, said that the strong credit enhancement guarantors can be divided into two categories: professional guarantee companies and highly qualified urban investment guarantors.
For professional guarantee companies, according to the division of the fixed income team of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) Development Research Center, the first echelon includes national China debt increase, China Insurance, China Securities increase and China securities guarantee, and local Jiangsu re guarantee, Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong finance guarantee and Zhejiang guarantee; The second echelon includes Anhui guarantee, Hubei guarantee, Suzhou guarantee, etc.
"The urban investment bonds of the first echelon guarantee company for credit enhancement are relatively safe, and the duration can be appropriately prolonged (about 3 years) to win higher returns." Liu Yu suggested, "as for the second echelon guarantee companies, those guaranteed by Anhui can choose urban investment bonds with higher income within 3 years; those guaranteed by Hubei and re guaranteed by Suzhou can choose urban bidding with higher income within 2 years."
(Xinhua Finance)
