In 2021, the electric transformation of the global automobile market will accelerate again.
According to the data of the European automotive industry organization (PFA), from January to November this year, the eight countries with the highest penetration of new energy vehicles in Europe (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Sweden and Norway) registered 1.595 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 85%.
In addition, according to the data of marklines, a Market Research Institute, from January to November this year, the cumulative sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in the United States were 550000, a year-on-year increase of 96%. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (bnef) estimates that if the impulse at the end of the year is added, the global sales of new energy vehicles this year is expected to reach 6.3 million, almost twice the sales in 2020.
Zheng Yun, global senior partner of Roland Berger, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that the sharp increase in global sales of new energy vehicles this year is related to higher policy support, rich varieties of new energy vehicles and improved consumer acceptance. "Driven by policy and market, the global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to rise in 2022." He said.
policy and market two wheel drive
Zheng Yun believes that the primary reason for the growth of global new energy vehicle sales in 2021 is that the policy support of European and American governments is still high. Car purchase subsidies in many European countries have not declined. After Biden became president of the United States, he also launched the plan of car purchase subsidies and the construction of charging piles. This not only reduces the purchase cost of consumers, but also alleviates the "charging anxiety".
At present, the French and German governments provide consumers with car purchase subsidies of 6000 euros and 9000 euros respectively. Biden signed an executive order in August, setting the goal that the sales of zero emission vehicles (including pure electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell) in the United States will account for 50% of the total sales of new vehicles by 2030, and said that 500000 new energy vehicle charging stations will be established in the United States.
Zheng Yun said that in addition to policy driven, the new energy vehicle market in Europe and the United States this year has shown the following characteristics: first, the supply of new energy vehicles has gradually increased and the variety of models has been constantly enriched; Second, the market has gradually changed from policy driven to policy and market driven.
According to the data of ev-sales, a market research institution, there are 100 new energy vehicle models on sale in the European market. According to the data of Market Research Institute JATO, the top ten best-selling pure electric vehicle models in Europe have been on the market for nearly two years.
Taking Volkswagen, which currently has a high market share in the European new energy vehicle market, as an example, the company said that the carbon emission policies of many European countries are becoming increasingly stringent. If you bet on traditional fuel vehicles, it will significantly increase its production costs and reduce its profits. In addition, the management of Volkswagen also said that the electric transformation of the automobile market is the general trend. If it is not transformed in time, the market will be occupied by other competitors. According to ev-sales data, Tesla has ranked first in the sales of new energy vehicles in many European countries in the past year.
Zheng Yun also said that the second characteristic of the market side is that consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles is gradually increasing. Roland Berger's survey in the report of intelligent electric vehicle energy supplement ecosystem index shows that more than 70% of new energy vehicle owners are satisfied with the current energy supplement experience, and half of fuel vehicle owners are considering purchasing new energy vehicles in the future, which is particularly prominent in the United States.
"On the cost side, new energy vehicles are becoming more and more attractive to consumers. At present, the cost of consumers using new energy vehicles (such as the relative cost of electricity and oil) is decreasing." Zheng Yun said, "in addition, more importantly, because new energy vehicles are driven by electricity, such a structure can make them go further in intelligence. This will turn the car into a big mobile phone or a small house, and consumers will have more experience in intelligent interaction when driving."
the lack of core still puzzles car enterprises
However, the shortage of chips is still bothering automobile enterprises. Renault, Volkswagen and other companies expect that the shortage of chips will continue until at least the middle of 2022, which will hinder the production and delivery of their vehicles.
Sheng Linghai, vice president of research at Gartner, an American research and consulting company, said in an interview with China business that the main causes of the chip shortage of auto enterprises are: first, the repeated epidemic has led to the rupture of the supply chain. Second, under the background of chip capacity shortage, chip manufacturers give priority to customers such as consumer electronics. "These two problems may not be alleviated in the short term, which means that the delivery bottleneck of automobile enterprises may continue until 2022." He said.
However, Sheng Linghai said that since the beginning of this year, many countries around the world have formulated chip industry policies, which may help alleviate the chip shortage of automobile enterprises in the long run. In the middle of this year, the wafer factory built by Bosch with an investment of 1 billion euros was officially completed within the EU. It is reported that Intel also plans to increase production capacity worldwide. Next year, it will add factories in France and Italy and establish a major production base in Germany.
Zheng Yun also believes that the chip problem will indeed restrict the delivery of new energy vehicles next year, thus affecting vehicle sales. At the same time, due to the higher intelligent level of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles are more affected by the shortage of chips. If you want to solve this problem, vehicle enterprises need to make efforts in the supply chain to ensure the safety of the supply chain by establishing normal safety inventory.
IHS Markit, a market research institution, predicts that the penetration rate of the global new energy vehicle market is expected to exceed 10% by 2025.
Zheng Yun believes that the first reason why the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 is likely to improve is that, from the policy point of view, the subsidies of European and American governments for new energy vehicles will continue.
The French and German governments said that the car purchase subsidy policy will be extended to the end of June and December next year respectively. At present, the United States "rebuild a better future" bill is still in the process of voting in Congress. China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) it is predicted that if the Democratic Party does not run the votes and vice president Harris also supports it, the Senate can directly pass the bill, which means that the U.S. government's tax credit policy of up to $12500 per cycle will officially come into force in 2022.
Zheng Yun said that the second reason is that from the market side, it is expected that new energy vehicle models will be further enriched next year. Market Research Institute guidehouse insights believes that by the end of next year, the number of new energy vehicles in the U.S. market alone will increase to 40.
(First Finance)
