Market style switching in December. In December, the market style changed greatly, among which the stable style performed best. As of December 28, it rose by 8.2%, followed by the consumer and financial sectors, up 4.9% and 3.0% respectively, while the growth and cycle style performed relatively poorly, down 3.0% and 0.1% respectively. This is the first time since April this year that the growth sector has performed worst in the monthly dimension. From the perspective of theme industries, the performance of power industry is outstanding, and most of the leading companies in the sector rose, of which Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) rose by more than 50% this month.
Important macro events occurred frequently in December. In December, major events at the macro level occurred frequently. On December 6, the central bank announced the reduction of reserve requirement, which was officially implemented on December 15; The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2022; The central economic work conference was held from December 8 to 10; On December 20, the one-year LPR was lowered by 5bp to 3.8%. The macro policy level in December focused on stabilizing the economy. The central economic work conference pointed out the triple pressure of “shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation” faced by China’s economic development, and further clarified that next year’s economic work should be “stable” and “seek progress in stability”; The liquidity in December was significantly relaxed, and the RRR reduction and one-year LPR reduction were implemented one after another.
“Cross year agitation” market is still worth looking forward to. After a series of macro policies, the market performance is not strong, or it is related to the market’s concern about whether the economy will go down more than expected next year. However, the restless market is still worth looking forward to. After the overall macro setting, more specific policies may be introduced in the future, and leading economic indicators such as social finance may take the lead in improving. With the emergence of policy effectiveness and the release of liquidity, the logic of the restless market is still established. The recent stable growth and the prominent performance of the consumer sector are the embodiment of the restless market, and the embodiment at the broad-based index level will be gradually clear in the future.
It is expected that the trend of switching from market style to consumption has just begun. Recently, the market style is gradually switching to consumption. It is expected that the consumption sector will have a prominent performance in the restless market and the dimension of next year. First of all, in the turbulent market in recent years, the consumer sector has a good performance, and the recent rise in the price of some consumer goods is also expected to push the stock price upward. And more consumption stimulus policies may be introduced in the future. Secondly, from the perspective of the whole year, under the downward pressure of the economy, the overall profit growth of A-Shares will fall to the single digit level, while the performance trend and economic relevance of the consumer sector are relatively low, and its performance advantages will be highlighted.
The consumer sector suggests that we should focus on Baijiu, medicine, household appliances, automobiles, and mass consumer goods. The market style will gradually switch to consumption, and consumption leaders will take the lead in attracting the benefits. It is suggested that Baijiu and pharmaceutical industries should be concerned. The home appliance, automobile and other industries that are most likely to benefit from the consumption stimulus policy also deserve attention. Some mass consumer goods industries with price increases also deserve attention.
The direction of steady growth also deserves attention. It is expected that the steady growth policy will be fully implemented in 2022 and become one of the core mainlines of the capital market. In terms of traditional infrastructure, it is suggested to pay attention to building materials, construction, machinery and other industries; It is suggested to pay attention to photovoltaic, wind power and other industries in the new infrastructure direction.
Everbright gold stock portfolio in January 2022: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Wuxi Etek Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688601) .
Risk tip: economic growth is significantly lower than expected; The covid-19 epidemic has deteriorated significantly.
（ Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) ）
