“At present, China’s high-quality development is accelerating, which is expected to give birth to the golden age of the capital market.” On December 28, Zhang Xiaochun, chief strategic analyst of Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (601456. Sh, 01456. HK), said at the 2022 annual investment strategy meeting.
In general, Zhang Xiaochun believes that the theme of carbon neutralization, large consumption sector, digital economy and high-end manufacturing in 2022 may be the main direction to obtain excess returns.
in 2022, the growth style is expected to dominate
Looking back on 2021, Zhang Xiaochun believes that “recovery” is the main melody of the global economy, which is mainly reflected in the rise of interest rates, prices and stock indexes in major countries.
From the perspective of policy differentiation caused by recovery differentiation, Zhang Xiaochun said: “we should be vigilant against the impact of policy spillovers in developed countries.”
Zhang Xiaochun further said: “steady growth is necessary on the one hand and conditional on the other.”
In this context, Zhang Xiaochun believes that strategically, industries with relatively low performance sensitivity but relatively high valuation and policy sensitivity should be selected for allocation. On the whole, the growth style is expected to be dominant.
short term main line: large financial sector valuation repair and midstream dilemma reversal
In the short term, Zhang Xiaochun believes that there are two directions worthy of special attention: one is the valuation repair of the large financial sector, and the other is the dilemma reversal in the middle reaches.
In terms of big finance, Zhang Xiaochun believes that its valuation is currently in a very low position, both from a historical perspective and horizontal comparison. Among them, Zhang Xiaochun focuses on recommending securities companies with growth space.
In terms of the dilemma reversal in the middle reaches, Zhang Xiaochun believes that the middle and lower reaches will be generally difficult in 2021 due to the price rise of upstream commodities. However, prices are expected to fall in 2022, which is also expected to bring reversal opportunities for the middle and lower reaches. Among them, Zhang Xiaochun mainly recommends two industries: Automobile and parts and livestock and poultry breeding.
long term main line: high quality development may bring these industry opportunities
Zhang Xiaochun said that referring to the development experience of the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries, during the transformation from quantity to quality, the profit margin of enterprises rose instead of falling. When the economic growth center went down, the stock market ushered in a rise of 10 or even 20 years. At present, China’s high-quality development has accelerated significantly, which is expected to give birth to the golden age of the capital market.
For the industry opportunities that high-quality development may bring, Zhang Xiaochun believes that low-carbon, digitization, autonomy, globalization, common prosperity and new consumption are the main directions in the future.
First of all, whether from the perspective of environmental friendliness, energy independence or economy, Zhang Xiaochun believes that low-carbon has great potential, and will also bring investment opportunities with long slope and thick snow over 40 years. Among them, Zhang Xiaochun focuses on the future investment opportunities of photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, green power operation and new energy vehicles.
Secondly, an important opportunity for high-quality development is the digital wave under the improvement of efficiency. In 2022, Zhang Xiaochun believes that the most important direction in the field of industrial digitization is the meta universe, including investment opportunities such as infrastructure, human-computer interface and application scenarios.
In addition, in the market transformation from localization to globalization, Zhang Xiaochun believes that industrial chain security is the biggest rigid demand in localization, and domestic substitution is still the general trend; At the same time, the accelerated pace of globalization of another part of China’s globally competitive enterprises and industries will also bring corresponding investment opportunities.
(surging News)
