Recently, the new stock Hemai shares has become the focus of shareholders’ discussion. The main reason for becoming the focus is the issuance price of 557.8 yuan per share, which is unprecedented. It is also worried that the price is too high and the P / E ratio of the issue is too high, and the listing of Hemai will become “buried alive”. 1300 winners on the Internet give up the subscription of the stock, the number of which is up to 650000 shares, the amount of which is up to 360 million yuan, and the proportion of giving up is nearly 18%. When he Mai was listed on December 20, the winners who gave up the subscription regretted their guts, and the loss of this waiver was about 100000 yuan.
However, investors worry that the breaking of new shares is not groundless, but a lesson from the past. Since the breaking of new shares on the first day of listing on October 22 Sinocat Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688737) , the cumulative number of broken new shares in two months has reached 11. The largest single sign loss is Baiji Shenzhou listed on December 15. If it is sold at an average price on the day of listing, the loss per sign is as high as 14400 yuan. So, what is the reason for the frequent breaking of new shares? The author believes that there are mainly the following four points:
I. under the registration system, the valuation of new share issuance is getting higher and higher, and the valuation advantage is not obvious compared with similar listed companies. since the issuance of new shares under the registration system of science and innovation board and gem, the issuance of new shares has broken the limit of 23 times P / E ratio, and the issuance price is based on the market quotation. From the actual issuance situation, the P / E ratio of any new share issuance has not been lower than 23 times since the registration system. Especially after September 18 this year, Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued revised new regulations, namely, the measures for the implementation of stock issuance and underwriting on the science and Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the detailed rules for the implementation of securities issuance and underwriting on the gem initial public offering. The new regulations revise the inquiry of new share issuance under the registration system: the elimination proportion of the maximum quotation is adjusted from “about 10%” to “about 1%”, the possibility of high quotation being eliminated is reduced, and the effective quotation range is expanded. This change greatly reduces the possibility of institutions holding down the issuance price, but virtually raises the issuance price of new shares.
second, there are more and more new shares issued, and the scarcity of new shares is becoming more and more expensive. so far this year, more than 400 new shares have been issued (excluding the Beijing stock exchange market). It is normal to issue two or three new shares every day. New shares are no longer scarce, and the pool of new shares occupies enough liquidity. At the same time, almost all well-known companies around us are already listed or ready to go public. Speculation is losing its hazy and mysterious sense, and speculation is also lack of theme and space.
Third, the issue price of new shares is getting higher and higher, and the number of shareholders who can participate is decreasing. since the marketization of new share issuance, the new share issuance price has been constantly refreshed, and the new share issuance price is not the highest, but higher. On August 3, Sino Biological Inc(301047) was issued online at the price of 292.92 yuan, which once caused an uproar in the market. The share price of Hemai shares issued on December 11 was as high as 557.8 yuan. As the first-hand purchase required more than 100000 yuan, many preparation participants looked at the shares and sighed, and only Linyuan envied the fish.
Fourth, the stock market funds have been continuously diverted, and the funds involved in the speculation of new shares have been reduced. first, since the market value subscription, a large number of new shares have been issued every year, which have precipitated a lot of market funds. Second, for the companies listed three years ago, the major shareholders knew about the ban period, and they needed market funds to undertake the reduction, and the funds after the reduction of these major shareholders rarely returned to the stock market. Third, the opening of the Beijing stock exchange attracted most of the funds.
Under the joint action of the above four points, the return of the value of new shares is inevitable, and the break will occur. In this case, many investors have wavered in the subscription of new shares and are at a loss. I personally think that the strategy of “bold subscription and careful payment” should be adopted for the subscription of new shares!
Under the registration system, although the winning lot is not 100% profitable and faces the risk of breaking, the probability of making money is much higher than the breaking probability. At the same time, due to the large number of shares issued, it is impossible for us to understand the fundamentals of each stock before subscription. If we give up subscription by feeling, we are likely to miss the big meat label. Therefore, we should still adhere to the bold purchase of new shares and not give up each one.
After winning the lottery of new shares, we focus on studying the fundamentals of stocks and determine whether to give up payment according to the fundamentals, rather than focusing on the issuing price, market value and plate size of new shares. Whether new shares are paid or not, let alone herd mentality. It is often a few people who are right to treat new shares.
It is worth noting that the number of times to give up payment each year shall not exceed 3, otherwise it will be included in the list of restricted subscription and the subscription will be prohibited within 6 months. In addition, those who abandon the purchase are the new shares on the science and innovation board and gem issued under the registration system, while those on the main board and small and medium-sized board still issued under the approval system should be resolutely subscribed with their eyes closed!
(Red Journal Finance)
