Silicone DMC last week, the market sentiment of price support grew, and the enterprise price rebounded slightly. Due to the dominant mentality of buying up but not buying down, coupled with the demand for replenishment before the festival, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has increased rapidly, the pace of delivery of silicone enterprises has accelerated, the inventory has decreased significantly, and even there is a tight situation, and the price of silicone tends to decline...
comprehensive report by Peng Zhuo, researcher and intern Zou Yanping of all media information of Southern finance and economics
As of Thursday's close, CITIC silicone index fell 1%. Silicone DMC last week, the market sentiment of price support grew, and the enterprise price rebounded slightly. Due to the dominant mentality of buying up but not buying down, coupled with the demand for replenishment before the festival, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has increased rapidly, the pace of delivery of silicone enterprises has accelerated, the inventory has decreased significantly, and even there is a tight situation. The downward trend of silicone price may be alleviated.
The pace of goods delivery is accelerated, and the downstream demand warms up
Organosilicon includes monomers (such as chlorosilane), intermediates (such as hydrolysate, DMC, etc.) and downstream deep-processing products.
From the change of inventory last week, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that is dominated by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. In addition, there is a demand for replenishment before the festival, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is rising rapidly, the delivery rhythm of silicone enterprises is accelerated, the inventory is significantly declining, and even there is a shortage of goods. Enterprises mainly supply old customers and a small number of new orders. With the recovery of silicone rubber market, the inventory of raw rubber and 107 rubber is very small, the focus of trading moves upward, the mixed rubber has no obvious willingness to follow up, and the actual transaction focuses on negotiation.
at present, the deep processing industry in the downstream of silicone is still in the stage of rapid development . On the one hand, China's consumer demand CAGR is expanding at a high speed of about 10%, and the per capita consumption is expected to catch up with the level of developed regions in Europe and America, from 0.7kg/person to 2kg/person. Sagsi predicts that China's polysiloxane consumption will increase from 1.09 million tons in 19 years to 1.62 million tons in 24 years; On the other hand, with the increasing diversification of technological innovation products and the continuous promotion of application boundaries, has blossomed in many fields such as power equipment, new energy, consumer electronics, medical treatment, automobile manufacturing and so on.
From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference pointed out that it is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization, make scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, and accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, Prevent simple layer by layer decomposition. Huachuang securities expects that the approval of silicone and metal silicon will be relaxed, and the downstream demand will increase in the future.
Production capacity is expected to continue to expand
Previously, organosilicon DMC also ushered in a price rise in August, mainly due to the impact of the "double limit" policy, the shortage of organosilicon and its upstream metal silicon production capacity and raw materials, and its own production reduction, the supply of organosilicon shrank. Since December, the price of silicone in China has rebounded due to tight supply. According to Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , from the supply side, silicone enterprises have stopped and are ready to restart, and the overall supply is tight.
Recently, however, in terms of news, organosilicon Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) announced that it plans to invest in the construction of 300000 t / a high-purity industrial silicon project + 200000 t / a organosilicon project + 200000 t / a high-purity polysilicon project + 21000 T / a semiconductor polysilicon project. The total investment of the project is expected to be 33.25 billion yuan. In addition, with the first batch of 110 glue discharged from production line 1, it marks the successful output of the first batch of products by Yunneng silicon phase I 200000 t / a silicone production unit, and the production process is fully opened. The agency expects that about 1.8 million T / a silicone monomers will be put into operation next year, and the total capacity of China's silicone will continue to expand on the existing basis.
Investment strategy: expand production without reducing prices, and determine downstream demand
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the price support sentiment in the silicone market grew last week, and the enterprise price rebounded slightly. Although the cost side is not favorable, the chemical grade metal is still loose, and the mainstream reference price has fallen to 22400-23000 yuan / ton, the apparent profit of silicone enterprises is still poor. During the week, silicone enterprises raised prices one after another to stimulate the downstream mentality, and the mainstream price of DMC rose to 24500-25000 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous week, it increased by 1000 yuan / ton (+ 4.3%), and the DMC price difference improved when the raw material price continued to decline.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that in the short term, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the industry's new capacity will be put into operation or impact the price correction, but it is not pessimistic about the overall price in 2022. It is expected that the supply and demand of industrial silicon will continue to be tight, or affect the release progress and operating rate of downstream silicone capacity. For the subsequent launch progress of a large number of new capacity of silicone, or the release progress is less than expected due to the shortage of chemical grade industrial silicon, resulting in limited decline in the price center of silicone products. therefore, it is judged that the supply and demand pattern of silicone will deteriorate next year, but the price can still maintain a high position supported by cost.
Institutional focus on individual stocks
Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) (603260. SH) : focus on carbon neutralization from top to bottom and look for strong carbon from bottom to top α， The industrial integration project of silicon-based new materials with an investment of 35.5 billion yuan is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2024.
Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) (002132. SZ) : the silicone project has reached the trial production conditions and laid the long-term performance elasticity. Two wheel drive is expected to further improve the company's valuation.
Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) (688303. SH) : it is proposed to invest 33.25 billion yuan to build 300000 t / a high-purity industrial silicon project and 200000 t / a organic silicon project, so as to further improve the market share.
Xinyaqiang Silicon Chemistry Co.Ltd(603155) (603155. SH) : China's major enterprises in the comprehensive utilization of trimethylchlorosilane are further developing and expanding in the fields of silicone materials and electronic chemicals, driving the continuous growth of business scale and profitability.
(21st Century Business Herald)
