Late December, late winter. In Baiyang Industrial Park, Yichang high tech Zone, Hubei Province, the slogan of "bang Pu conference war" fluttered in the wind, and the scene was busy: excavators waved their huge arms and earthwork trucks shuttled back and forth
The Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Bangpu integrated new energy industry project with a total investment of about 32 billion yuan is catching up with the progress, which is the largest investment attraction project in Yichang's history.
Yichang Bangpu project also set another record: it took only 3 months from contact and negotiation to formal signing, and only 52 days from signing and landing to construction.
Why can a super project of more than 30 billion yuan be finalized in such a short time? Consensus on industrial prospects is the key.
"The deterministic opportunity for the new energy industry has come." On December 21, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) chairman Zeng Yuqun said when attending the annual meeting of lithium battery of senior engineering. Zeng Yuqun said that in the past 10 years, people have good expectations for entering the lithium battery industry, that is, they believe that energy conservation, environmental protection and green development are the future direction, and power batteries and energy storage batteries will be useful in the future. Now, this beautiful vision has become a reality, an expected opportunity and a deterministic opportunity.
Economists' interpretation provides a basis for government decision-making. "New energy is becoming a new engine of China's economy." Recently, when attending the 2021 Boao Forum of Chinese entrepreneurs · China wealth summit, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) specially invited chief economist Ren Zeping proposed that the third energy revolution is the large-scale use of renewable energy brought by power batteries. In this process, China is very likely to overtake at the corner.
bull shareholders - form the strongest new force of A-Shares
The capital market has already captured the rise and change of industry. In 2021, the stock king Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) welcomed a strength Challenger - "ningwang" Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) .
On the first trading day of 2021 (January 4), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price soared by 15.1% and exceeded 400 yuan. Since then, it has continued to rise, once approaching 700 yuan, and the market value of the company once exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan. Since this year (as of December 29), "ningwang" has increased by 64% and its total market value has reached 1.34 trillion yuan, ranking fourth in all a shares, second only to Maotai, ICBC and CCB.
"Ningwang" is not alone. The continuous rise of the company's share price has also opened the market value growth space of other brother companies in the lithium battery industry chain.
According to the information statistics of Shanghai Securities Journal, up to now, the market value of 11 lithium battery related enterprises in the A-share market has exceeded 100 billion yuan. In addition to the trillion "ningwang", the market value of Byd Company Limited(002594) is close to 800 billion yuan, and the market value of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and other companies is also more than 200 billion yuan. According to statistics, there are about 150 companies with A-share market value of more than 100 billion yuan, and the lithium battery industry accounts for about 8%.
Corresponding to the traditional "Mao index", some securities companies have developed a "Ning combination". In the 2021 version of "Ning portfolio", in addition to the leading Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , lithium battery industry chain enterprises also have Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) .
With a number of leading enterprises with a market value of 100 billion yuan, the share prices of some small enterprises have risen. In 2021, the share prices of several companies in the lithium battery industry chain soared, such as Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , with an annual increase of more than 300%, becoming the most dazzling Bull Stock in the market.
Stocks are hot, and refinancing of related companies is highly sought after. In August this year, "ningwang" threw out a refinancing plan of 58.2 billion yuan. Despite some disputes, the dilution ratio of equity is not large compared with the company's market value of more than trillion yuan. In November, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) adjusted the financing amount to no more than 45 billion yuan.
Like "ningwang", a number of lithium battery industry chain companies have started refinancing. In November, diaphragm leader Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) announced that it planned to refinance no more than 12.8 billion yuan, and electrolyte leader Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) disclosed that it planned to refinance no more than 5.5 billion yuan, which were used to expand production and supplement working capital. In addition, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) plans to raise 5.2 billion yuan, Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) plans to raise 3.9 billion yuan, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) plans to raise 7.3 billion yuan
According to incomplete statistics of Shanghai Securities News, in 2021, 21 listed companies in the industrial chain successfully raised funds, with a total financing amount of 46.7 billion yuan. The refinancing of more than 20 companies has been started, and the financing amount is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.
Some unlisted lithium battery companies are also favored by funds. At the end of July, honeycomb Energy announced the completion of round B financing of RMB 10.28 billion. It is reported that the company plans to go public in 2022. In September, AVIC lithium also completed a new round of equity financing of RMB 12 billion. In November, the company's civil products sector dominated by lithium was independent and renamed AVIC innovation. Although the financing amount has exceeded 10 billion yuan, there is still news that "many institutions have not been assigned the desired amount".
investment boom - industrial chain investment exceeds trillion
The pursuit of the secondary market has helped enterprises obtain huge financing and promoted the large-scale expansion of production.
According to the statistics of lithium electric big data, since this year, 25 battery enterprises, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , honeycomb energy, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , vision power, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , have added a total planned capacity of 1894gwh (GWH). If the investment is estimated at 400 million yuan per GWH, the planned investment in the battery sector alone has exceeded 750 billion yuan.
"Ningwang" still takes the lead. According to statistics, at present, the company has deployed 10 production bases in the world, including Ningde, Xiamen, Liyang, Qinghai Xining, Yibin, Sichuan, Zhaoqing, Guangdong, Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) , Yichun, Jiangxi, Gui'an, Guizhou and tulingen, Germany. With the joint venture capacity with automobile enterprises, the total capacity layout before Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2025 will reach 520gwh.
The total capacity planning of power + energy storage battery of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) has also been nearly 300gwh. According to statistics, since this year, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) has repeatedly announced the expansion of production, including Chengdu 50gwh power energy storage project, Jingmen Duodao District 152.6gwh power energy storage battery industrial park, etc. At the beginning of this year, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) Chairman Liu Jincheng said that 2021 will be a "dominant" year for the company to develop in the power battery market.
A number of power battery enterprises announced huge production expansion plans. For example, China Innovation airlines announced that the planned capacity will be 500gwh in 2025 and 1twh (TWH) in 2030. Another example is honeycomb energy. From 200gwh in the first half of this year to 320gwh in early September and 600gwh in early December, the company's capacity planning has tripled in one year. Also Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , the company recently disclosed that the production capacity will reach 50gwh by the end of this year, exceed 100GWh by the end of 2022 and exceed 300gwh by 2025.
The large investment of the battery factory has directly driven the investment of suppliers in the upstream industrial chain, and all links have been put into operation on a large scale.
Taking copper foil as an example, the industry leader Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) announced in November that it plans to raise no more than 4.9 billion yuan for new high-performance copper foil technology transformation projects with an annual output of 16000 tons, high-performance copper foil projects with an annual output of 15000 tons, high-precision ultra-thin electronic copper foil projects with an annual output of 30000 tons, etc. Previously, the company has disclosed several production expansion plans, with a total capacity planning of more than 150000 tons.
Like Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Copper Crown copper foil, Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co.Ltd(601212) , Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) have also expanded production and newly built copper foil projects. According to the information statistics of Shanghai Securities News, at least 10 enterprises have disclosed copper foil production expansion plans this year, with a total investment of more than 55 billion yuan.
Due to the cross-border of a number of heavyweight chemical enterprises, the investment of lithium iron phosphate is the most radical. According to statistics, the planned capacity of lithium iron phosphate disclosed this year is more than 3 million tons. The investors include industry veterans such as Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , chemical giants such as Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) , Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , and other cathode material suppliers such as Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) .
"The industrial chain of new energy is very long. This outbreak can bring a trillion level industrial chain, which is enough to replace industries such as real estate and heavy chemical industry." Recently, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) invited chief economist Ren Zeping said in a public speech.
bottom gas is sufficient - downstream customers actively lock orders
Such a huge investment scale, will there be overcapacity? Downstream enterprises guarantee upstream enterprises with orders and funds.
Recently, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) announced that the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary Funeng Zhenjiang intend to sign a supplementary agreement to the multi-year supply agreement with Mercedes Benz AG, which stipulates that Mercedes Benz AG will pay an advance payment of about 1.05 billion yuan to Funeng Zhenjiang. A few years ago, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) signed a 10-year order agreement with Daimler, which will exceed 170gwh in total.
Super orders are nothing new in the industry. On December 20, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) disclosed that American GuoXuan, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed a supply agreement with a large listed automobile company in the United States. American GuoXuan ensured that the number of batteries required by the customer would be met from 2023 to 2028. The customer expected that the total amount of battery procurement during the demand period would not be less than 200gwh.
"Both automotive batteries and energy storage batteries will have a very rapid development in the next few years, which is unimaginable." Recently, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) Chairman Liu Jincheng said. Previously, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) also got a super large order from a customer. In an interview with reporters, Liu Jincheng once revealed that the company's projects can be completed eight years later.
Battery factories that get super orders turn to the upstream for stable material supply.
Joint investment with upstream suppliers is one of the common modes. If Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has signed a joint venture investment intention with Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) a few days ago, both parties intend to jointly construct a 100000 ton high-performance electrolytic copper foil project, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) accounts for 20% of the shares and enjoys the priority of procurement. Previously, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) cooperated with Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) to build a 100000 ton lithium iron phosphate production base.
A recent announcement of Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) reflects the urgent demand for capacity in the downstream. It is disclosed that Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) plans to invest about 800 million yuan to build a new lithium iron phosphate cathode material project, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will underwrite all the production capacity of the project from its production to the end of 2023, and has prepaid 350 million yuan.
For some leading enterprises, orders from downstream customers have forced the company to expand production rapidly.
For example, Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , the company cooperated with ecopro BM Co. of South Korea in October this year., LTD。 By signing the memorandum, the company will supply 650000 tons of NCA & NCM high nickel ternary precursor materials to the latter from 2024 to 2026. According to the previous agreement, Gem Co.Ltd(002340) will supply not less than 176000 tons of NCA & NCM high nickel ternary precursor materials to ecopro from 2021 to 2023. As of June 2021, Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ternary precursor has been built, with a total capacity of 130000 tons / year. Without expansion, it is not enough to deliver the orders of ecopro.
"The whole industrial chain has been fully opened! The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to exceed expectations, other markets such as energy storage, electric power and tools have also been started, and the general trend of electrification has been formed." A new researcher of the securities firm Dianxin interviewed said.
According to the latest statistics of China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 170% year-on-year. According to the latest research report of Anxin securities, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million in 2021, basically doubling. In 2022, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million, with a year-on-year increase of 60%.
Gaogong lithium battery predicts that by 2025, the global demand for lithium battery for new energy vehicles and energy storage will be about 1516gwh In 2020, the global shipment of lithium-ion batteries was 294.5gwh. Based on this calculation, the average annual compound growth rate is about 40%.
sharp price rise - mismatch between supply and demand promotes industrial synergy
An important reason why downstream customers actively seek cooperation is that under the background of explosive demand growth, there is a mismatch in the supply and demand rhythm of the industrial chain, and the prices of some products have risen sharply in the past year, even if they have money, they can't buy them.
According to the information statistics of Shanghai Securities News, by the end of December, the price of lithium carbonate had exceeded 220000 yuan / ton, an increase of 320% over the beginning of the year; The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate exceeded 550000 yuan / ton, an increase of 400% over the beginning of the year; The price of iron lithium cathode reached 90000 yuan / ton to 100000 yuan / ton, an increase of 130% over the beginning of the year; Ternary positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte increased significantly.
"At present, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached 500000 yuan / ton, but this is not normal." Recently, Li Shijiang, chairman of Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) said in his speech when attending the annual meeting of lithium battery of Gaogong. Lithium hexafluorophosphate is the most popular raw material in the whole lithium battery industry chain in 2021.
Although abnormal, the market is still in short supply. According to Li Shijiang, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) all contracts for lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2022 have been signed, and production capacity construction is being actively accelerated to meet downstream demand.
The drastic price fluctuation also promotes the alliance of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain. According to public information, in November, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) signed a strategic agreement with Byd Company Limited(002594) , and Byd Company Limited(002594) plans to purchase lithium hexafluorophosphate products with a total quantity of no less than 56050 tons from Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) from January 2022 to December 2025.
Some new suppliers were also quickly supported. For example, Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) also paid an advance payment of 600 million yuan while signing the minimum purchase volume agreement with the company. By virtue of being among the strategic partners of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) 's share price rose to above 80 yuan this year, more than six times higher than last year's closing price.
In order to ensure the security of the supply chain, more and more enterprises choose to March upstream. As mentioned above, Yichang Bangpu project attracts Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in addition to the enthusiasm of Yichang local government, there is also phosphate rock. Yichang has the largest phosphate rock base in the Yangtze River Basin, with phosphate rock resource reserves of 2.7 billion tons, accounting for 15% of the country, ranking second among the eight major mining areas in China, and phosphorus chemical industry is in the first array in China.
The sharp fluctuation of material prices has also promoted the transformation of industrial development ideas, that is, from fine chemical industry to large chemical industry.
"Lithium battery materials must be made with the idea of large chemical industry and low cost, otherwise it will not succeed." Xu Gang, chairman of Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) said a few days ago. Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) is the largest titanium dioxide enterprise in Asia. In the second half of this year, the company disclosed several investment plans in the field of lithium battery materials, with a total investment of more than 10 billion yuan.
"Massive demand calls for a large chemical supply chain, which requires chemical giants to enter the industry, provide huge and stable supply, and drive the upgrading of the whole industry through the supply side." Zeng Yuqun said that he was glad to see BASF, Dow Chemical, Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Guizhou phosphating and other chemical giants enter the battery industry chain.
busy attack - Chinese enterprises accelerate overseas expansion
Despite the sharp rise in raw material prices and tight supply chain, Chinese enterprises are still the most active group in the global market. With the advantages accumulated in the Chinese market, they accelerate their expansion in the global market.
On December 17, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) signed long-term battery supply agreements with lightning emotors, an American commercial electric vehicle manufacturer, and Phoenix motorcars, a subsidiary of sun power (SPI. US). In November, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) also received two big orders in the United States: the cumulative supply of more than 15gwh for Fisk, an American electric start-up, in three years, and the supply of batteries to elms, an American commercial electric vehicle manufacturer, will continue until 2025.
Winning the order is only the first step to the sea. According to incomplete statistics of Shanghai Securities News, in 2021, more than 25 enterprises in China's lithium battery industry chain built factories / invested in projects at sea. So far, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , vision power, honeycomb energy, China Innovation airlines, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and other enterprises have started to build factories in Europe.
Along with battery factories, there are also material suppliers and equipment suppliers. In November, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) disclosed that it planned to make an additional investment of no more than US $100 million to the wholly-owned subsidiary Eurostar for the production expansion of Eurostar phase II project. In the same month, Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) and SK Inc. Signed a strategic cooperation agreement and established a joint venture with Finnish mining group. The former mainly develops the markets of the United States and South Korea, while the latter aims to build a new material industry base in Europe.
Public information shows that lithium battery material enterprises such as Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Jiangsu Guotai International Group Co.Ltd(002091) , Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) have set up subsidiaries and invested in supporting projects in one or more countries.
"China is entering the global market including Europe and North America in the form of industrial chain. It is also the first time in history to go to sea with the integration of technology, products, supply chain and capital. This is an opportunity for Chinese enterprises. At the same time, the world also needs the contribution of Chinese enterprises." Liu Jincheng said recently.
The advantages of Chinese enterprises have been reflected in the market share. According to the data released by SNE research, a South Korean market research institution, from January to October this year, the installed capacity of six battery enterprises such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , vision power and honeycomb energy stably occupied the top 10 in the world, and the total market share increased to 47% from 36% in the whole year last year.
In addition, according to the statistics of Gaogong lithium battery, China has a leading advantage in the manufacturing of core materials of power batteries in the world, including 42% of positive materials, 65% of negative materials, 65% of electrolyte and 43% of diaphragm. Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong lithium battery, predicted that the annual compound growth rate of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery shipments from 2022 to 2025 will exceed 50%, China's four main materials will occupy 70% of the global share, and China's lithium battery industry chain will further highlight its competitiveness in the world.
"Relying on the competitiveness of technology reserves, industrial chain supporting and large-scale manufacturing accumulated over the years, Chinese products, Chinese solutions and Chinese technology are deeply participating in the construction of European and American battery industry." Zhang Xiaofei said.
(Shanghai Securities News)
