Near the end of the year, the position of equity funds increased slightly, and the position of common stock funds was nearly 90%. Some fund managers said that the main position adjustment and stock exchange in the fourth quarter have been basically completed. Although there may be no index level market next year, the structural opportunities in the first quarter are still worth looking forward to.
According to the calculation of Cinda securities, the average positions of partial stock active funds increased slightly last week, and the average positions of common stock funds and partial stock hybrid funds were 89.1% and 87.21% respectively, with a slight increase of 0.01 percentage point and 0.15 percentage point month on month.
"The position adjustment and stock exchange for next spring's market have been basically completed, but we will not look too short-term. There may be no index level market next year, but structural opportunities still exist." Some fund managers admitted that they had "operated" on their positions in the fourth quarter to cope with the market in the first half of next year.
Xinda securities data show that the allocation proportion of the public fund industry increased more last week, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, power equipment, new energy and automobile, while the allocation proportion of comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, basic chemical industry and other sectors decreased more.
The above position adjustment direction is consistent with the investment ideas of some fund managers next year. Chen Qi, head of Huafu fund research department and manager of Huafu Industrial Upgrading fund, said that in 2022, there will be more investment opportunities in focusing on the energy revolution driven by the "double carbon" goal, the increasingly rich intelligent networking of industrial and life end application scenarios, semiconductors and military industry driven by security demands, and some consumption upgrading fields.
"The recent shock and confusion in the market actually provides a good time point for 'contrarian' layout. At the same time, after entering the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report of listed companies, the main line of the market will be more clear, and the trading congestion at the high boom track may be greatly improved after adjustment." Chen Qi said.
In fact, although there have been some adjustments in the new energy sector recently, many fund managers will still aim at the main line of carbon neutralization next year. Lu Bin, research director of HSBC Jinxin fund, said that the main line of carbon neutralization investment not only has large coverage, but also has strong sustainability. This main line has been interpreted for more than half a year, but it is far from over. There are still many structural opportunities in the future.
For the new energy sector, Lu Bin believes that the increase in the past two or three years only reflects the fundamentals of the industry. New energy, especially the new energy automobile industry, may usher in a systematic rise in valuation and investment opportunities in the next few months. In the future, we need to find some links with the greatest performance elasticity and the best matching between valuation and performance in combination with supply and demand for structural allocation.
Some fund managers are also optimistic about the recent volatile consumer sector. Yang Delong, manager of Qianhai open source fund, believes that before the Spring Festival is the traditional peak consumption season, and consumption is expected to regain its upward trend after a period of adjustment. It is recommended that investors maintain confidence and patience.
Some funds also entered the market at the end of the year to express their attitude towards the future market with practical actions. Data show that last week, the net capital inflow of equity ETFs was 15.078 billion yuan, of which the net capital inflow of ETFs in the consumer industry was more, reaching 2.509 billion yuan.
However, some fund managers hold a relatively cautious view of the spring market. Zou Hui, deputy general manager of Societe Generale fund research department and selected fund manager of Societe Generale research, expects that the monetary environment may be relatively abundant in the first quarter of next year, but considering the regulation of the real estate market, it is doubtful whether credit can be expanded. Historically, credit expansion is often accompanied by the upward movement of market valuation level. Based on the above judgment, there may be no further expansion of market valuation level next year, or even convergence. Therefore, the configuration needs to be re optimized, and the valuation cost performance must be considered. In addition, it should be noted that even in the high boom track, the performance of relevant companies may be differentiated due to changes in the competition pattern.
(Shanghai Securities News)
