Mendeleev may not have expected that the periodic table of elements, which he pioneered more than 150 years ago, would become an investment "map" in 2021.
In 2021, the "periodic table of elements" runs through the whole A-share market. During the year, a number of plates and stocks related to elements showed obvious rising prices one after another. According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, the elements with obvious increase during the year are mainly concentrated in the carbon group elements and transition metals in the periodic table.
For example, among the carbon group elements, carbon neutralization and silicone were the corresponding sectors in the A-share market, with an increase of 32.5% and 95% respectively during the year.
Among the transition metal elements, the prices of tin, aluminum and copper increased significantly. In the futures market, the corresponding main contract prices of Shanghai tin, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai copper increased by 92%, 30% and 21% respectively during the year, and the higher commodity prices also led to the rise of relevant stocks. In addition, boosted by the new energy market, lithium, nickel, hydrogen energy and other sectors have seen phased markets.
2022 is coming, the imbalance between supply and demand in upstream resource products still exists, and institutions are still optimistic about the periodic table of elements.
Wang Dan, chief economist of Hang Seng Bank (China), told the first financial reporter that at present, the growth rate of various commodity prices is declining, and the commodity prices that have soared this year in 2022 will also be differentiated. Among them, the prices of steel and oil may fall, but the prices of varieties related to energy transformation will have room to rise in the next three to five years as the demand continues to rise, For example, rare metals, rare earths, etc; In addition, under the goal of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, the coal output may decline in 2022, which will also raise the coal price accordingly.
carbon neutralization blessing, carbon element stands at "C"
Looking back on 2021, carbon is a major player in the A-share market. The related steel and coal sectors took the lead in getting out of the soaring market.
The data show that since the beginning of the year, the carbon neutralization index has increased by 32.5%, and the growth of related concept stocks has doubled during the year, of which Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) and China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) have increased by 349% and 312% respectively.
Supported by the concept of "carbon neutralization", the active market of iron and steel, coal and power sectors followed one after another. Especially after entering the third quarter, the prices of traditional energy also soared. The coal and steel indexes increased by 47% and 20% respectively in the third quarter of 2021.
Throughout the year, there are not a few stocks in the two cities leading the increase of the plate in the year. Specifically, Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000780) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and Yankuang energy in coal stocks increased by 203%, 162% and 146% respectively during the year. In terms of steel stocks, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) and Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) increased by 137% and 117% respectively.
Industry insiders believe that under the general trend of "carbon neutrality" this year, the valuation and profitability of cyclical stocks have been repaired to a certain extent. It is worth noting that carbon neutralization related policies have also accelerated the elimination of excess capacity and continuously optimized the industry pattern. In the long run, the competitive advantages of companies with large scale, low energy consumption and high efficiency will be more prominent. Leading companies in the field of upstream raw materials such as electrolytic aluminum, steel, chemical industry and building materials have medium and long-term investment opportunities.
However, the excessively high energy price swallowed up the profits of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, and PPI reached new highs repeatedly during the year. Wanjia Fund pointed out that in 2021, the supply and demand of industrial products contracted synchronously, and the supply side contracted more, resulting in the continuous expansion of the gap between supply and demand of industrial products and the rapid rise of cost pressure on middle and downstream enterprises.
After entering the fourth quarter, in the face of soaring commodity prices, the regulatory authorities severely cracked down on excessive speculation and maintaining stability in the current market, and the prices of bulk commodities mainly coal and steel were significantly corrected until the prices gradually returned to a reasonable range.
2022 is coming. Can carbon hold the "C position" in the A-share market?
Wanjia Fund believes that the supply side contraction in 2022 will probably correct the deviation, which will lead to the moderate repair of China's supply, and the cost of raw materials is expected to gradually fall. Superimposed on the continuous high base effect this year, the PPI is expected to fall as a whole next year. However, taking into account the demand for steady growth next year, the demand will increase, and it is difficult to completely relax the dual carbon emission reduction, and the price center of industrial products will also have some support.
The "14th five year plan" for raw material industry development released by the Ministry of industry and information technology and other departments mentioned that by 2025, the production capacity of key raw materials and bulk products such as crude steel and cement will only be reduced but not increased, and the capacity utilization rate will remain at a reasonable level. Among them, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel in the iron and steel industry decreased by 2%, and the carbon emission of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 5%. Implement energy conservation review and strictly control the fuel coal consumption of major coal consuming industries such as petrochemical industry, steel industry and building materials.
big year of small metal
Most of the hot fried elements in 2021 are concentrated in main group metals and transition metal elements.
Corresponding to the A-share market, including non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum and tin, as well as a series of small metals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium brought on fire by new energy. Lithium recorded the largest increase. According to statistics, the lithium mine index rose nearly 200% during the year, and the lithium battery index rose 83% during the year.
Basically, the development of the new energy vehicle industry has accelerated, and the market around the battery industry chain runs through the whole year. In terms of stock growth, Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) and jiangte electromechanical increased by 479% and 435% respectively.
As the mismatch between supply and demand still exists, the lithium price is in the third round of price increase in the current spot market. Recently, the general office of the State Council issued the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035), which pointed out to promote the development of the whole value chain of power batteries and encourage enterprises to improve the support capacity of key resources such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and platinum.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that the lithium price will remain high in 2022, and the lithium salt price center in 2022 will be significantly higher than that in 2021. The configuration logic of A-share lithium battery sector will shift from price increase expectation to performance expectation, which will become the trigger and main driving force for the sector. Recommend enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium ore and high degree of performance realization.
In terms of non-ferrous metals, as an upstream resource product of the new energy and new material industry chain, the non-ferrous metal index increased by about 48% during the year. Specifically, nickel, tin and copper prices have a strong trend throughout the year. The price of Shanghai nickel futures once hit a new high since listing, and the price of Shanghai tin futures rose by 90% during the year.
Ju Guoxian, chief analyst of non-ferrous metals, said that the rise in the price of metal varieties is the embodiment of the phased imbalance between supply and demand. In 2021, there will be a big market for many small metal varieties at the upstream resource end, including non-ferrous metals used at the battery end and rare metals needed at the new material end. However, not all metals involved have achieved the same income. Different application scenarios also lead to different price growth. Generally speaking, the speculation market is mainly rare metals with small output, Because the output is small, it is more easily driven by demand, and the price transmission is obvious.
the new energy sector has risen for two consecutive years. Can it be maintained in 2022?
Lu Bin, research director of HSBC Jinxin fund, told the first financial reporter that new energy is expected to usher in a systematic valuation improvement in 2022. In his opinion, new energy vehicles have several major sub circuits such as downstream vehicles, midstream materials and upstream resources. Among them, it can be further subdivided into different fine molecular industries such as battery equipment, power cell, thermal management, electrolyte in the middle reaches, diaphragm, negative electrode materials, lithium and cobalt in the upstream. Moreover, most of the high-quality companies in all industrial chains are listed on a shares, so our choice space is very rich.
In addition, platinum group metals, such as platinum, palladium and rhodium, also rose sharply, benefiting from fuel cells.
Deng Weibin, head of the Asia Pacific region of the world platinum Investment Association, previously told the first financial reporter that the future application of hydrogen energy is promising in the field of transportation because fuel cell vehicles are lower carbon than electric vehicles and traditional internal combustion engines. In 2022, the development of hydrogen energy industry will continue to drive the growth of platinum application demand. With the accelerated development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, platinum group metals, as an important catalyst raw material in the hydrogen energy industry chain, will help the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cells.
(First Finance)
