One time a year is like a crucian carp crossing the river, but ten times a decade is like a morning star. In the industry, fund managers who have managed funds for more than 10 years and have an annual return of more than 10% since taking office are known as "double ten" fund managers, and Du Meng of Shanghai Investment Morgan fund is one of them.
Du Meng is the deputy general manager and investment director of Shanghai Investment Morgan. He entered the securities industry in 2002 and started his career as a fund manager in 2011. He has been deeply engaged in emerging industries such as new energy, advanced manufacturing and consumption upgrading for nearly 20 years. Growth stocks have always fluctuated greatly, but Du Meng's representative product, Morgan emerging power a, has achieved an annualized excellent performance of more than 20% in the case of high positions and low turnover. Galaxy securities data show that as of November 30, the annualized return of Morgan emerging hybrid a, which has been managed by Du Meng for more than 10 years, was 22.27%.
"Volatility itself is not a risk. Choosing the wrong asset is a risk." Looking back on his investment career in the past decade, Du Meng said that the long-term income of the fund comes from the development of industries and enterprises, rather than frequent transactions. Therefore, he has always insisted on selecting individual stocks and holding them for a long time, and focused on emerging industries with large growth space and high ceiling, looking for excellent enterprises to grow together.
new energy is still the leading industry
Du Meng is one of the first researchers to study power equipment and new energy industry in China. He began to cover the new energy industry as early as 2003 and has been deeply cultivated for nearly 20 years.
Taking photovoltaic as an example, Du Meng recalled that he had been studying photovoltaic since 2004. At that time, the whole industry was very small. The first polysilicon plant only produced thousands of tons per year, and the cost unit price was very high; However, today, a large number of excellent enterprises that can participate in global competition have been born in the relevant industrial chain of photovoltaic industry.
Standing at the moment, from the historical reversing mirror, the investment opportunities and development space of new energy such as photovoltaic are irresistible. However, in the past few years, the fluctuations in the development of the new energy industry have also been very intense. For example, the "531 policy" in 2018 once brought shock and confusion to the whole photovoltaic industry. But Du Meng believes that once you have identified the general direction of an industry, you should stick to tracking even in case of fluctuations, so as to catch the inflection point in time when the "dilemma reversal".
Recently, the new energy sector has ushered in another shock, and issues such as valuation, supply and demand pattern and technological change have aroused widespread heated discussion in the market. However, Du Meng believes that the volatility of emerging industries represented by new energy will gradually decline.
On the one hand, the new energy industry chain has gradually matured, there is no obvious weakness in all links, and the factors such as policy, social value and commercial application have been recognized by the market and funds one after another; On the other hand, after the new asset management regulations are broken and just exchanged, more and more long-term funds will continue to flow into the A-share market, which will also reduce the fluctuation of high-quality assets in the market to a certain extent.
"Over the past 20 years, the Chinese market has experienced an economic cycle driven by real estate. I think the next round of economic growth in China may mainly rely on the adjustment of energy structure under the dual carbon target. Specifically, the growth rate of photovoltaic industry is expected to be 40% ~ 50% next year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle industry may still be more than 100%. Therefore, new energy is still the leading industry in terms of prosperity next year Direction. " Du Meng said in the interview.
However, compared with the past beta market, Du Meng believes that there will be obvious differentiation in the new energy sector next year, and companies with cost advantages, technological progress and high production capacity will gradually highlight, which also means that new energy investment needs more detailed stock selection.
more opportunities next year
It is understood that Du Meng is about to issue a new fund on January 10 next year, which will be held by Morgan woxiang vision for one year. At the current time point, Du Meng believes that he is relatively optimistic about the market next year, and the valuation correction has been largely completed, so the beginning of next year may be a better time to build a position.
First of all, for the macro economy, China's economic growth rate went down all the way after reaching the high point in the first quarter of this year. Du Meng predicted that the first quarter of next year may be a stage low point, and then it will gradually go up. Under the policy tone of "stable growth", the market will return to economic growth as the main line.
Secondly, a good warehouse building period comes from adjustment. Du Meng believes that at present, new energy has ushered in the layout opportunity again after the correction in the fourth quarter. After nearly a year of adjustment, consumer, pharmaceutical and other industries are also relatively reasonable. Many stocks can be bought in a cheaper position.
"It may not be realistic to expect these assets to return to the undervalued level before 2019." Du Meng said that the valuation center of A-Shares will be improved as a whole, and the high valuation of high-quality assets will become a norm.
Specifically, since 2019, due to the decline of risk-free rate of return and the influx of long-term funds into core assets with stable growth such as consumption and medicine, the value of such assets has been revalued and the valuation has been rising; However, with the continuous strengthening of various funds, by the beginning of 2021, the performance growth rate of core assets could not match the valuation, so the market began to revise again; However, Du Meng believes that under the background of breaking the "just exchange" under the new rules of asset management, more and more long-term funds are pouring into a shares, and some excellent companies or companies with long-term stable growth are favored by funds. In the long run, it is reasonable that the valuation is higher than in the past.
Du Meng believes that the market opportunities next year will be relatively balanced. This year's A-share opportunities are mainly concentrated on several tracks. If these tracks are not successfully seized, it will be more difficult to invest this year; Next year, the market is not only new energy, but also semiconductors, consumption and medicine will have some bottom-up opportunities next year. In addition, at the current time point, most of the negative factors of Hong Kong stocks that have been greatly adjusted have been fully reflected in the stock price, which helps investors to select individual stocks from a long-term perspective.
(Securities Times)
