China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) yesterday’s 4% large-scale decline undoubtedly confused the market. Who is smashing the market? What caused it?
After hours, China Merchants Bank had a block transaction of 2.819 billion yuan yesterday, with a transaction price of 46.91 yuan, a discount of 1.5% from the closing price, which seems to coincide with the news that everyone insurance reduced its holdings of 2.6 billion China Merchants Bank through block transactions.
Moreover, the disk showed that there seemed to be funds smashing the market in the afternoon, which also pointed to the securities lending transaction. The securities lending data of China Merchants Bank on the 29th showed that it was 1.894 billion, an increase of 150 million over the previous trading day. It is worth noting that in the top 20 of the two financing data on the 28th, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) has a significantly higher proportion of securities lending than other stocks, of which the financing balance is 6.305 billion and the securities lending balance is about 1.75 billion. In addition, the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect data showed that China Merchants Bank was sold a net 860 million yuan on the 29th.
As the eighth largest shareholder of China Merchants Bank, everyone insurance holds China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) 976 million shares. According to the closing price on the 29th (47.62 yuan), the total market value is about 46.5 billion yuan. Over the past two years, China Merchants Bank has continuously reduced its holdings of China Merchants Bank, with a cumulative reduction of 283 million shares. Everyone’s insurance was originally Anbang insurance. In the past few years, it has successively cleared and reduced its holdings of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) and Vanke. In recent months, it has cleared and reduced its holdings of Gemdale Corporation(600383) .
Liang Fengjie, chief analyst of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) bank, said that the adjustment on China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) 29 may be caused by the arbitrage position change of the bulk acceptor.
it is said that the 2.6 billion block transaction of everyone’s Insurance triggered securities lending and smashing
In the intraday trading yesterday, it was reported on the Internet that everyone’s Insurance reduced its holdings of 2.6 billion CMB through block trading on the same day. At the same time, there was a view that there were institutional securities lending and short arbitrage on the afternoon of the 29th. The above reasons shocked CMB, resulting in a sharp drop of 4.05%. If calculated according to the average transaction price of 48.4 of CMB on the 29th, the arbitrageurs had a floating profit of more than 80 million.
Reviewing the trend of China Merchants Bank on the 29th, it can be seen that the trend was relatively stable in the morning, but after the opening in the afternoon, the transaction volume increased and the decline expanded rapidly. It closed at 47.62 yuan, down 4.05%, with a turnover of 1.439 million hands and a turnover of 6.965 billion yuan.
The spearhead pointed at the 2.8 billion yuan block transaction of China Merchants Bank. According to after hours data, on December 29, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) had 14 block trading information, with a total turnover of 60091000 shares, a total turnover of 2.819 billion yuan, a premium rate of – 1.49%, and almost all the sales business departments were institutional seats. Both the block transaction amount and premium rate are very consistent with the online data.
Why up to 14? This may be the reason why sellers conduct bulk transactions as scattered as possible, minimize the impact on the market and make transactions more hidden.
According to choice data, as of December 29, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) securities lending balance was RMB 1.894 billion, an increase of 150 million over the previous trading day, which to some extent supports the rumors of short arbitrage of securities lending.
According to Liang Fengjie, chief analyst of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) bank, the adjustment on China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) 29 may be caused by the arbitrage position change of the bulk acceptor.
Some investors said on social media, “everyone’s Insurance passively reduced its holdings of 60 million shares and took the closing price * 0.985 as the transaction consideration. Any buyer who wants to win will smash down the shares of China Merchants Bank… Such smashing is a business in which the auction makers can earn no loss.”
everyone insurance has reduced 283 million shares in recent two years
How many CMB do you hold? According to the third quarterly report, as of September 30, 2021, we insurance held 976 million shares of China Merchants Bank, accounting for 3.87% of the total share capital, and was its eighth largest shareholder. According to the closing price on the 29th (47.62 yuan), the total market value of China Merchants Bank shares held by everyone insurance is about 46.5 billion yuan, and the proportion of 2.6 billion block transactions is very low.
In fact, everyone insurance has been reducing its holdings of CMB shares in the past two years, with a total reduction of 283 million shares, including 60 million shares in the first three quarters of this year; In 2020, it will reduce its holdings of 223 million shares.
If everyone insurance completes a block transaction of 2.6 billion yuan at the price of 46906 yuan, it needs to sell about 55.43 million shares, which also means that it has reduced its holdings of more than 100 million shares this year.
It is worth noting that if the 2.6 billion block transaction is true, the disclosure of intraday information may involve Illegal Insider trading.
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) sound fundamentals
In the face of the sharp drop on China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) 29, some netizens actively attracted funds and expressed “thanks to the main force for smashing the plate”; However, some netizens believe that it is necessary to give investors a statement that a large amount of holdings are reduced, institutions are robbed by fire, securities lending is smashed and short.
In addition to the controversy caused by block transactions, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) continues to have excellent fundamentals and is a high-quality scarce company in bank stocks.
According to the third quarterly report, in the first three quarters of 2021, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) achieved a revenue of 251.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.54%; The net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.21%; ROE18. 1%，ROA1. 44%。
By the end of the third quarter, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) NPL balance was 51.302 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.313 billion yuan compared with the end of the previous year; The non-performing loan ratio was 0.93%, down 0.14 percentage points from the end of the previous year; The provision coverage rate was 443.14%, an increase of 5.46 percentage points over the end of the previous year.
By the end of the third quarter, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) total assets amounted to 8917.44 billion yuan, an increase of 6.65% over the end of the previous year, mainly due to the growth of loans, advances and financial investment. Among them, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) loans and advances totaled 550.1177 billion yuan, an increase of 9.39% over the end of the previous year.
When evaluating the performance of China Merchants in the third quarter, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) bank chief Dai Zhifeng said that China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) all indicators show its sound and excellent fundamentals. At the same time, it has strong strategic implementation. The moat of retail business can continue to deepen in the existing system and adapt to the latest development of financial technology. China Merchants Bank has a high “scarcity” in banking stocks and is worthy of long-term holding. It is an excellent company that we focus on and continue to recommend.
Liang Fengjie, chief of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) bank, believes that China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) profit maintained a high growth trend, and the growth rate of profit and revenue in the first three quarters was basically the same as that in the Chinese report; The interest margin in the third quarter was 2.47%, and the margin toughness exceeded expectations; Maintain excellent asset quality; In the first three quarters, big wealth achieved a medium income of 41.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 22.72% / 15.22% / 15.32% year-on-year from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the target price of 62.50 yuan.
Liang Fengjie’s latest view said that there is no need to worry too much about real estate risk. After the short-term trading disturbance subsides, China Merchants Bank is expected to usher in valuation repair.
(Financial Associated Press)
