Following its approval in China on February 11, Pfizer covid-19 oral drug paxlovid is further away from its commercial listing in China. On March 9, Pfizer announced that it had signed a supply agreement with general technology China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) (hereinafter referred to as " China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) ") on the combined packaging of nevitavir tablets / ritonavir tablets (paxlovid) China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) will be responsible for the commercial operation of Pfizer Inc COVID-19 virus treatment PAXLOVID in Chinese mainland market during the agreement period.
Meanwhile, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) ( China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) .SH) also announced that it would sign the agreement with Pfizer Inc to handle Pfizer Inc's COVID-19 virus treatment PAXLOVID's business in Chinese mainland market during the agreement period (2022).
Although it is impossible to know the specific contents of the agreement between the two parties at present, the China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) announcement clearly points out that the final use and sales of products are affected by factors such as epidemic prevention and control, there is great uncertainty, and it is expected that the relevant business scale accounts for a small proportion of the company's overall business volume.
Previously, it has been circulated in the market that China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) and a multinational pharmaceutical company are negotiating the cooperation of covid-19 virus treatment drugs. Affected by this news, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) has increased the limit for three consecutive trading days from March 2 to 4. Last Friday (March 4), China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) issued an announcement on abnormal fluctuations in stock trading, which disclosed publicly for the first time that relevant matters are under communication and negotiation. If the cooperation is carried out smoothly, the final use and sales of relevant drugs are also affected by factors such as epidemic prevention and control, and there is uncertainty, which has no significant impact on the company's recent operating performance. Opening on Monday, March 7, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) rose again, while today (March 9), China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) closed up 2.55%.
Although the pressure of "external defense input and internal defense rebound" in China is high, and the recent epidemic situation in China shows a multi-point distribution trend, the overall confirmed cases are limited, especially under strict prevention and control, the epidemic situation in China is completely controllable. So, what is the market space of Pfizer covid-19 oral medicine in China?
In this regard, the pharmaceutical industry analyst of a securities research institute said in an interview with the reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald that in the current situation, paxlovid basically has little sales. However, in the future, the drug may become a household standing drug like a common cold drug. The sales volume of the drug is likely to exceed that of Tamiflu, the previous "miracle drug" of influenza. However, some analysts pointed out that although the pricing of the drug in China is unknown, referring to the foreign market, the price should not be cheap, which will directly affect the accessibility of the drug. In addition, China's covid-19 vaccine products are mature, and sequential booster immunization has also been launched. As the most effective way of prevention, covid-19 vaccine still plays a leading role in the fight against the epidemic.
how will be priced in China
China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) successfully won the commercial interest of Pfizer COVID-19 oral medicine PAXLOVID in the Chinese mainland market, and is expected to become the leading COVID-19 drug concept in the post epidemic era.
On January 29, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) announced the performance announcement of 2021. According to preliminary calculation, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 is expected to be 300 million yuan to 700 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47% - 77% compared with the same period of last year;
China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) full name is China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) Health Products Co., Ltd., which is the former China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) health products import and Export Corporation. At present, the controlling shareholder is China General Technology (Group) Holding Co., Ltd., an important state-owned backbone enterprise directly managed by the central government. The company's business scope covers four major industrial fields: natural medicine, pharmaceutical and chemical industry, medical devices and comprehensive trade. Its business form covers the whole industrial chain of pharmaceutical industry, such as planting and processing, R & D and production, commercial circulation, international trade, technical services and so on.
In the field of pharmaceutical business, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) in accordance with the relevant requirements of the new national GSP, has continuously enriched its business varieties, expanded its business qualifications, actively promoted the expansion of regional network, and built a large logistics center. At present, it has formed a nationwide distribution, promotion and logistics center focusing on Beijing, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang and Liaoning Integrated distribution marketing network system. The company has basically completed the national retail channel control and distribution, covering 25 provinces and more than 1000 chain pharmacies.
In addition, as a professional international supply chain service provider of medical and health products, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) business scope covers chemical raw materials and preparations, biological products, medical devices, diagnostic reagents, dressing consumables, traditional Chinese medicine, granular decoction pieces, health food, etc., which can provide customers with first-class trade integration services.
In addition to the finalization of commercial partners, the market is more concerned about the commercial pricing of the drug in China.
Previously, Pfizer covid-19 oral drug paxlovid has been approved for application in the United States, Israel, Canada, Europe and Japan. As for the pricing of the drug, according to public information, the price of Pfizer paxlovid in the United States is: for a five-day course, the U.S. government needs to pay about 530 US dollars (about 3367 yuan), and the price in China has not been announced yet. Previously, Pfizer said that during the epidemic period, pricing will be stratified according to the income level of each country, and high-income and middle-income countries will pay more than low-income countries.
PAXLOVID is an oral small molecule anti COVID-19 virus therapy for the treatment of mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in adults with severe risk factors, such as elderly, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease.
Paxlovid is a compound preparation of 3CL protease inhibitor pf-07321332 and low-dose ritonavir. Ritonavir helps to slow down the metabolism or decomposition of pf-07321332 and maintain its effective concentration in vivo for a long time to its antiviral activity.
According to the research results of paxlovid, a new oral antiviral candidate of covid-19 published by Pfizer in 2021, the interim analysis shows that the drug reduces the risk of hospitalization and death of high-risk covid-19 patients by 89%. This data is even better than covid-19 neutralizing antibody, which is significantly better than molnupiravir
In terms of specific use, referring to the foreign market, paxlovid is a combination packaged drug, which is composed of a new antiviral drug "namatvir tablet" and a long listed antiviral drug "ritonavir tablet".
Nematevir tablets (pink tablets): 150 mg / tablet; Ritonavir tablets (white): 100 mg / tablet. Take 3 tablets twice a day (2 "namatvir tablets" and 1 "ritonavir", the two drugs must be taken together) for 5 days.
Pfizer covid-19 oral drug accelerated production expansion
At present, covid-19 oral drug paxlovid has been successively approved in major global markets. In 2022, the biggest test for Pfizer will be production capacity and supply.
According to the 2021 performance report data released by Pfizer on February 8, Pfizer achieved a revenue of $81.3 billion in 2021, up 92% year-on-year. Among them, after the oral antiviral drug paxlovid was approved by the FDA on December 22, 2021, it has won the order of 20 million courses of treatment from the U.S. government, and it is expected to realize the production capacity of 120 million courses of treatment by the end of the year. According to the therapeutic dose provided by the supply contract signed or committed by the end of January, Pfizer paxlovid's expected financial revenue in 2022 is about $22 billion.
AVIC securities research report pointed out that compared with covid-19 prevention and treatment methods such as neutralizing antibody, small molecule oral drugs have unique advantages: first, if the site of virus mutation is at the key position, the neutralizing antibody may fail, and small molecule oral drugs can deal with virus mutation; Second, the production capacity of neutralizing antibodies is limited, while the production capacity of oral drugs is less limited and the cost is low; The cost of oral administration and intravenous administration of vid-19 is low, and the neutralization of vid-19 can be achieved quickly, which can cause high infection.
Based on this, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) it is estimated that the global oral covid-19 drug market will be billions to tens of billions of dollars, equivalent to nearly 100 billion yuan.
However, paxlovid faces capacity pressure in the short term, and the large-scale process industrial chain is expected to generate huge benefits. Pfizer expects the production of paxlovid to be 6 million courses in the first quarter of 2022, 30 million courses in the first half of 2022 and 120 million courses in the whole year.
Last November, Pfizer announced that it had signed a sublicense agreement with the United Nations supported MPP (drug patent pool), which would allow more pharmaceutical companies to produce generic drugs for low - and middle-income countries.
According to the agreement reached between Pfizer and MPP, under the premise that who still defines covid-19 pneumonia as a public health crisis, MPP will be allowed to authorize the production of generic drugs to qualified pharmaceutical manufacturers without patent fee, and supply 95 low-income countries with ritonavir, covering 53% of the world's population.
On January 20, MPP announced that it had signed an agreement with 27 enterprises in the world, including five Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises, to produce and supply molnupiravir generic, a high-quality and affordable oral anti covid-19 virus drug for 105 low - and middle-income countries or regions around the world. At present, MPP has not released the list of enterprises authorized to cooperate in the production of Pfizer covid-19 oral drug paxlovid generic drugs.
However, with the intensification of the global Omicron epidemic, its production capacity pressure will further increase. Driven by multiple factors, Pfizer is also placing orders for relevant cdmo enterprises in China. From November last year to February this year, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) outsourcing leader Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) successively received a small molecule chemical innovative drug provision contract customized R & D and production (cdmo) service contract from a large pharmaceutical company in the United States for three times, with a total contract amount of more than 9 billion yuan. In addition to Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , on February 11, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) announced before Pfizer covid-19 oral drug was approved in China that the company had received a new batch of purchase orders from Pfizer and would provide contract customized R & D and production (cdmo) services. As of the disclosure date of the announcement, the total amount of new orders obtained by boten was US $681 million, more than 50% of the audited operating revenue of the company in the latest fiscal year. The delivery time of this order is 2022.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) analysis shows that the influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic is obvious, and chemical drugs have obvious advantages in administration mode, action target and drug cost, which may become the killer mace against covid-19. Chemical drugs not only have low cost, but also have clear and highly conservative targets. They have potential antiviral activity against a variety of mutant strains and can cover the treatment of mild, moderate and severe covid-19. The administration of small molecule oral drugs is convenient, and the mode of administration is more suitable for the treatment of mild and moderate patients. It can play an important role in combating covid-19 epidemic.
