"there are many white hairs. Can you live in the green mountains?"
For Xiang Guangda, the actual controller of Qingshan holdings, this poem may be a true portrayal of his mood in the past two days.
The 65 year old industrial tycoon, known as the "world nickel king", has been mediating with all parties recently.
Two days ago, due to the shortage of delivery products and other factors, Qingshan holdings, the global leader in stainless steel and one of the world's top 500 private enterprises, which he founded, was suddenly involved in a capital snipe planned by overseas capital and accurately implemented with the help of loopholes in the rules.
Subsequently, the London Metal Exchange (LME) urgently revised the rules, announced the cancellation of all nickel transactions after 0 a.m. on the 8th, and postponed the delivery of all spot nickel contracts originally scheduled to be delivered on March 9.
on 9, Castle Peak group responded that it had allocated sufficient spot for delivery
So far, the event that can be recorded in the world financial history has become increasingly clear, but the truth behind the event is still shrouded in fog. Especially after many overseas capital sniping events such as China reserve cotton, China Aviation Oil, State Reserve copper and Zoomlion have occurred in history, some enterprises still step into the same river, and the lessons are worth pondering.
After two days of interview and on-site inspection, the reporter of Shanghai Securities News tried to restore the context of the whole event.
what about the giants in the vortex? Reporter's on-site visit
on the afternoon of 3, the reporter of Shanghai securities news came to Qingshan industrial building, No. 588, dongdaming Road, Shanghai this 8-storey single storey building with a facade similar to a sail is adjacent to the picturesque riverside green space on the North Bund. It forms a triangle on the map with the world-famous buildings on the Bund and the Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) financial buildings across the river.
Public information shows that the office of Shanghai Dingxin investment (Group) Co., Ltd., the largest shareholder of Qingshan holdings, is on the sixth floor of this building.
In a major project signing in Hongkou District, Shanghai on July 15 last year, Qingshan, as a representative of the signing private enterprises, said that because he was optimistic about the great potential investment value of the North Bund, he purchased the office building as a whole and settled the enterprise headquarters and board of directors here.
Such a large sum of money is obviously not something that an ordinary enterprise can do.
According to the data, the output of stainless steel crude steel of Qingshan holdings in 2020 reached 10.8 million tons, with a production capacity of more than 10 million tons, accounting for about 35.8% of the supply in the Chinese market and 21% of the global output. In 2021, the revenue of Qingshan holdings exceeded 350 billion yuan and the profit reached tens of billions. Xiang Guangda, as the actual controller, was ranked as the richest man in Wenzhou with assets of 21.5 billion yuan on the 2021 Hurun global rich list.
The reporter saw that the current stainless steel giant in the eye of the storm is still calm at least from the scene. With the help of the transparent blue gray curtain wall glass, it can be seen that there are staff walking on each floor of the building from time to time. However, there are very few people and vehicles in and out of the building, with no more than 10 people in an hour.
According to an unnamed person in the building, visitors could at least reach the front desk of the building before yesterday, but now, the security measures of the building have been further upgraded, and visitors are directly stopped at the gate. Today alone, dozens of unannounced visitors were stopped outside the door.
The security guard at the door made it clear to the reporter: "this is a special period. You can't enter without making an appointment."
The reporter then came to a coffee shop at the back door of the building. The staff were also very vigilant and told the reporter that they could not go upstairs through the coffee shop without an appointment. Occasionally, the staff in the building went to the green belt outside the building to smoke. The reporter asked whether they were the staff of Qingshan group. The other party answered with the word "don't know".
All kinds of signs show that this low-key industrial giant for many years is indeed in trouble.
how does Castle Peak fall into the "cobweb" of international capital? Restore thrill for 16 hours
At 16:00 on March 7, Beijing time, the benchmark nickel price of London Metal Exchange (LME) (hereinafter referred to as "Lun nickel") suddenly rose continuously shortly after the opening, once soaring by more than 88%, reaching a record high of US $55000 / ton.
That night, there was news in the futures circle that Qingshan was forced to short 200000 tons by foreign investors in the market. The latter was raising money to make up the margin. With the sharp rise of nickel price, the latter suffered a floating loss of more than $8 billion.
A person in the futures industry who knows the inside story told the Shanghai Securities News that some of the above rumors are true. The reason is that castle peak has always held 200000 tons of nickel forward short orders in LME for hedging. If the nickel price is stable, the 200000 ton empty order will not cause any problems. If Castle Peak has enough delivery products, it will not bring much loss. However, precisely because the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian crisis reversed the market logic, the loophole of insufficient large empty orders and delivery products of Castle Peak was captured by international capital.
"The rule of the futures market is that delivery must be made at maturity. If there is no delivery, you can only close your position." The above-mentioned person said that the trading rules of the London Stock Exchange stipulate that the seller can sell as much as he sells, but there are two ways of settlement. One is to give the goods when they are due and pay as much as they are sold, but the goods must be registered and meet the standards, "If you don't meet the standard or can't reach the delivery quantity, I'm sorry. You must close your position after expiration. Because the so-called futures have a date, a time limit, and you must close it at the time."
Originally, Castle Peak could complete the delivery by purchasing Russian nickel, but unexpectedly, Russian nickel could not enter Europe after the sanctions, so it could not be used as delivery goods. On the other hand, LME required that the nickel content of nickel delivery products should not be less than 99.8%, and the nickel content of nickel products produced by Qingshan holdings could not meet this standard, so it was difficult to deliver in LME, so it was forced to close positions by bulls continuously raising the nickel price.
On the 8th Beijing time, the main contract of nickel broke through the $100000 mark, with a cumulative increase of 248% in the two trading days, setting a new record.
So far, in just 16 hours, Castle Peak's theoretical floating loss of empty orders has been more than $12 billion.
\u3000\u3000 "In this case, another way to settle the position is to take the initiative to close the position. If the original warehouse receipt explodes, the margin must be added to ensure that the position will not be closed. However, as the market price continues to rise, the floating loss is becoming larger and larger, and more and more additional money is needed. If there is no additional money, even if it is not due, the brokerage company has the right to force it according to the rules of the London Metal Exchange Close your position. " These people said.
Huang Jinwen, former director of strategic planning of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and a senior person in the international futures market, told the Shanghai Securities News that compared with the nickel futures contract of the previous period, the biggest difference of LME nickel is that there is no limit on the rise and fall of LME nickel, and its one-day increase can reach 100%. The defects of trading rules have magnified its impact in the current geopolitical events. This is an important underlying factor in the nickel surge.
In fact, bulls caught these seemingly insignificant loopholes and caused an uproar in the market.
\u3000\u3000 "For Castle Peak, two things should be done as much as possible to deal with the current situation: one is to ensure that there is enough margin in the stage of sharp price fluctuations to prevent being forced to close positions and leave passively; the other is to use the gap period of the exchange to raise enough deliverable goods as much as possible. The more deliverable goods raised, the greater the pressure on the counterparty, because the counterparty has a high probability of losing money Not for the purpose of receiving goods. " Li Qiang, director of Xinhu Futures Research Institute, told the Shanghai Securities News that it is urgent to find the source of goods as soon as possible.
can you "keep the green mountains"? Solution online
In the view of insiders, the vital source of goods finally appeared on the 9th.
On the evening of September 9, Castle Peak holdings announced that it had replaced China's metal nickel sector with its high matte nickel, which had been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.
A person close to Castle Peak Holdings said that Castle Peak's operation and position are actually no problem. As LME announced to stop the operation after 0:00 on the 8th, all parties first communicated according to the price of $49990, which is much better than the high price of $100000. In addition, Castle Peak has recovered the funds payable and delivered through the billing and deposit collection of two subordinate companies in Fujian and Guangdong.
Some analysts believe that the long and short forces in the nickel futures market in London may be reversed.
At the beginning of the night trading session of China futures market on March 9, Shanghai nickel futures contracts 2208, 2210, 2211 and 2302 all fell by the limit, with a decrease of 17%.
\u3000\u3000 "It's not clear how large the amount of cash raised by Castle Peak means. If 200000 tons are raised in full, it may put great pressure on the other party. Even if the other party has enough funds to receive the goods, it also means that the delivery cost of the other party in the process of sharp rise in the market is also very large. Even if it is less than 200000 tons and reaches the level of 100000 tons, the pressure on the other party is also great, because The departure of speculation and such a large-scale spot need to bear the heavy pressure of high cost and capital. " Li Qiang said.
A researcher told the Shanghai Securities News that, to take a step back, even if Castle Peak really loses $8 billion, with Castle Peak's revenue exceeding 350 billion yuan in 2021 and the leading position of 20% of the global stainless steel crude steel in terms of listing share, it will affect the cash flow at most and will not hurt the muscles and bones
Another person in the futures industry who has dealings with Qingshan holdings told the Shanghai Securities News that Qingshan holdings is unlikely to collapse due to this incident.
Shi Jianhua, executive president of Beijing Huarong Qiming Risk Management Technology Co., Ltd., told the reporter of Shanghai Securities News that the sharp rise in nickel price is similar to the "negative oil price event" in 2020. It is an unpredictable risk event in the market. On the whole, enterprises using traditional hedging tools to hedge risks may encounter short positions and short positions. The Enlightenment of this incident is that enterprises should fully understand the market trading rules, fear the market and be good at using diversified risk hedging tools.
Huang Qiwen, head of the Consulting Department of Beijing Huarong Qiming Risk Management Technology Co., Ltd., said that the historic rise in nickel prices has a great impact on enterprises in all links of the nickel industry chain carrying out hedging. The cash flow risk of enterprise derivative hedging is the most explicit and direct risk, and hedging is likely to aggravate this risk. Due to the influence of basis, cash hedging can not guarantee the complete hedging effect. At the same time, the lag or even sluggish spot sales and payment collection may not support the demand of enterprises to recover insurance on derivatives, which will lead to the exposure of enterprises to cash flow risk.
Castle Peak, can you keep the castle peak?
extended reading:
several nickel related companies responded
The continuous sharp rise in the price of nickel has set off a storm in the A-share market.
On March 9, the metal nickel sector fell sharply Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) shares fell by the limit, Beijing Hezong Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300477) , China First Heavy Industries(601106) , Hengli Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(000622) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) and other stocks fell by more than 7%. The industry giant Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) with a market value of 100 billion yuan fell by the limit for two consecutive days, and the market value evaporated by more than 26 billion yuan.
On the afternoon of September 9, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) issued a Clarification Announcement, saying that there had been ultra abnormal fluctuations in the nickel futures market recently. Up to now, the company has not been forced to close its positions, and the risk is controllable.
How does crazy nickel price affect listed companies? Which companies have nickel resource reserves? A number of A-share companies responded to the concerns of investors.
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : there is no forced liquidation at present
After trading on March 9, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) issued a Clarification Announcement on media reports, saying that the nickel futures market has experienced abnormal fluctuations recently. Up to now, the company has not been forced to close its positions, and the risk is controllable. There is uncertainty in the future trend of nickel futures, which may lead to losses in the company's hedging business.
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) announcement: nickel is the main raw material in the production and operation of the company. The company has set up nickel cobalt resource development business in Indonesia. In the case of continuous high nickel price, in order to prevent and control the risk of price decline and lock in operating profits, the company carries out nickel hedging business in strict accordance with the company's hedging management system in combination with its own production and operation. Hedging business is a common risk prevention tool in production and operation, not active speculation.
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) also disclosed that at present, the company's production and operation are normal, and nickel and cobalt resource development projects such as laterite nickel ore hydrometallurgy crude nickel and cobalt hydroxide project and laterite nickel ore pyrometallurgy high nickel matte project in Indonesia are progressing normally, Among them, the annual output of 60000 tons of nickel metal laterite nickel ore hydrometallurgy project of the subsidiary Huayue nickel cobalt Co., Ltd. has been successfully put into trial production.
The reporter of Shanghai Securities News learned from Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) that at present, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) is cooperating with Qingshan holding group in the development of nickel resources, including 60000 tons of wet nickel project of Huayue, 45000 tons of pyro high matte nickel project of Huake and 120000 tons of wet smelting project of Huafei. The above projects are controlled by Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , At present, the total capacity of Indonesian nickel resources is about 1239000 tons
China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) : owns 30% equity of 60000 tons / year wet nickel project in Huayue
China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) 3 said on the investor interaction platform on March 9 that the company has invested in the Huayue hydrometallurgy nickel project, accounting for 30% of the equity. After the project is completed, the nickel metal production capacity will be 60000 tons / year. In the future, it will be underwritten according to the equity ratio.
Gem Co.Ltd(002340) : nickel price rise has a positive effect on performance
Gem Co.Ltd(002340) responded on the interactive platform that the sharp rise in nickel futures price will not have a negative impact on the company; The company distributes nickel resources and recycles nickel resources in Indonesia. The rise of short-term, medium and long-term nickel resources within a reasonable range plays a positive role in the growth of the company's performance.
It is disclosed that Gem Co.Ltd(002340) has established a multi-channel nickel resource supply guarantee system. On the one hand, the company has established a targeted recycling cooperation relationship with Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) and other nickel resources, and plans to recover more than 20000 tons of metal nickel this year.
On the other hand, this year, it has signed contracts with Trafigura, first quantum, Yongqing, Mingda, ran Yulian and other companies with a total nickel supply of more than 30000 tons of metal nickel. In addition, the company built its own Indonesia nickel resource project, which is designed to produce 60000 tons of metal nickel per year. The first phase of the project is expected to be put into operation in the first half of this year.
Upgrade the main products of the subsidiary company: bingo
Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) revealed that the gold industry environmental protection invested by the company had completed the construction of 200000 tons of nickel containing hazardous waste disposal capacity (front-end pyrotechnics) by the end of 2021, and produced and sold some products, mainly nickel matte (low nickel matte). It is expected that Jinye environmental protection will start to contribute to the performance of listed companies this year, and the main products will be upgraded from low nickel matte to high nickel matte.
Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) : at present, the main business income does not involve nickel ore sales
Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) issued a stock price change announcement that the company acquired Pt in May 2014 The corresponding intangible asset value of nickel mine held by madanisejahtera company (95% equity held by the company) is 49.06 million yuan; Pt.com was acquired in July 2015 The corresponding intangible asset value of the nickel mine held by Bumi morowaliutama company (the company holds 80% of the usufruct of the nickel mine) is 599294 million yuan.
Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) said that at present, the company's main business income does not involve the sales of nickel ore, and the nickel ore held by the company has no impact on the company's performance. The company has signed the enterprise agreement of Qingdao Indonesia comprehensive industrial park with the investor of ferronickel smelting in Qingdao Indonesia comprehensive industrial park. The company can supply nickel ore to the investor, but the investor's rkef ferronickel smelting project has not been put into operation.
Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) : no nickel futures business
In the morning of March 9, Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) responded on the investment interactive platform that the company does not have any nickel futures business at present.
Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) said that as an important international wet nickel production and technology export enterprise, the company's high price is naturally beneficial, but it should also pay attention to the carrying capacity of the downstream market in the short term, and consider the healthy development of the whole new energy industry chain in the medium and long term.
Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) also reminded that the current sharp and rapid rise of international nickel metal futures prices has been divorced from the fundamentals due to geopolitical, low inventory and financial trading factors.
Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) : the high nickel price is expected to be unsustainable
Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) said that the current production and operation is normal and did not participate in nickel futures trading. The company learned from upstream resource suppliers that some European long orders of Russian nickel are still being implemented. At present, the short-term rapid rise in nickel prices is mainly due to panic and speculation in the futures market. From the perspective of long-term supply and demand balance of nickel, the high price of nickel is unsustainable, and it is expected that the supply and demand balance of nickel will be realized.
Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) : its nickel bearing projects have not been mined
Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) said on the interactive platform that as of December 31, 2020, the total amount of nickel metal of the company's Dominica kambei Mountain project was 92400 tons. The project is an exploration project and has not been exploited. The company will continue to conduct in-depth market research, strengthen exploration, track market trends, correctly formulate strategic development plans and improve marketing efficiency.
Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) : nickel recovery business has been carried out for many years
Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) said that Tianqi jintaige, a wholly-owned subsidiary, has carried out waste battery recycling business for many years, ranking in the forefront of the industry; At present, the process of recovering cobalt, manganese and nickel in the industry is relatively mature, with an average recovery rate of more than 90%.
Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) said that if the nickel price remains high, it may increase the selling price of the company's nickel products and the income of existing inventory, and may also drive the increase of the company's procurement cost.
