The textbook level financial war is coming. TV dramas and movies have never been so wonderful!
foreign capital: I bet you have no bullets in your gun
Qingshan group: ready for spot delivery, dada dada
As we all know, due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, foreign investors took the opportunity to close positions on lunni and short the Chinese private giant Qingshan group.
first review the process
As a major customer of Russian nickel mine, Castle Peak Group adopts hedging transaction in London to issue an empty order of 200000 tons of nickel in order to reduce the contract risk caused by price fluctuation, which is a normal operation.
Then London suspended Russia’s eligibility for delivery.
Castle Peak Group couldn’t take out the inventory corresponding to the empty order. Glencore kept an eye on it and began to close the position.
Then lunni rose 90% one night. With leverage, the hedging list of Qingshan group may have lost all its profits for several years, and people just knocked on the keyboard and sucked away the hard-earned money of China smelting group.
Castle Peak Group is a major partner of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and this incident has affected Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) . The limit of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) opened a few minutes ago.
On March 8 local time, LME nickel experienced an epic surge, and the contract once broke through $100000. In this regard, LME announced the suspension of nickel trading and cancelled all transactions on March 8 local time.
After the transaction on March 8 was completely cancelled, according to LME, on the day when the transaction resumed, the rise and fall were based on the closing price on March 7. In addition, after the restart, the transaction will start only in the European time period, and there is a 10% daily price fluctuation limit.
According to the previous media analysis, if the short selling cost is $20000 per ton, in theory, once the compulsory closing position may gain or lose up to $12 billion. Foreign capital is betting that there are no bullets (nickel in stock) in the gun of Qingshan group.
on 9, Castle Peak Group started a big anti killing campaign
According to the Securities Daily, Castle Peak group responded that it would replace China’s metal nickel sector with its high matte nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels. The report also said that analysts generally believe that the long and short forces in the nickel futures market in London have reversed, and the above-mentioned malicious foreign investors may face the embarrassing situation of “lifting a stone and hitting their own feet”.
Previously, according to the extreme market price, Castle Peak would lose a huge amount of US $12 billion to foreign capital. But now Castle Peak has spot delivery, so the position of the two in the futures market will be reversed immediately. Profit and loss reversal within two or three days, selling goods at a high price and physical delivery hold up foreign capital!
According to market analysis, if 200000 tons are fully raised, it may put great pressure on the other party. The departure of speculation and such a large-scale spot need to bear the heavy pressure of high cost and capital.
This time, Qingshan was able to deploy so many spot goods for delivery immediately. Netizens were wondering whether there was a mysterious force. At that time, Xiang Guangda, chairman of the board of directors of Qingshan industry, responded: “foreigners do have some actions and are actively coordinating. Today, I received a lot of calls, and relevant state departments and leaders supported Qingshan.” Xiang Guangda responded that Qingshan is an excellent Chinese enterprise with no problems in position and operation.
As an important global producer of stainless steel and ferronickel, Castle Peak Holdings has close cooperation with a number of A-share listed companies. After falling the limit for two consecutive days, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) 3 announced on March 9 that the nickel futures market had abnormal fluctuations recently. Up to now, the company has not been forced to close its position, and the risk is controllable. There is uncertainty in the future trend of nickel futures, which may lead to losses in the company’s hedging business.
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) said that at present, the company’s production and operation are normal, and its nickel and cobalt resource development projects such as laterite nickel ore hydrometallurgy crude nickel and cobalt hydroxide project and laterite nickel ore pyrometallurgy high matte nickel project in Indonesia are progressing normally, Among them, the annual output of 60000 tons of nickel metal laterite nickel ore hydrometallurgy project of the subsidiary Huayue nickel cobalt Co., Ltd. has been successfully put into trial production.
in fact, international speculators have hunted Chinese enterprises in the futures market for many times. As early as 1997, the London Metal Exchange (LME) had a lot of short press scenes. At that time, most of the short positions were in the hands of the Chinese people. The “Zhuzhou Smelter” incident finally caused a huge loss of nearly 1.5 billion yuan
The “Zhuzhou Smelter” incident occurred at the initial stage of China’s intervention in the international futures market. The international fund fought a battle of “more pressing the air”, giving China a downfall.
Zhuzhou Smelter is one of the largest production and export bases of lead and zinc in China.
In 1997, the staff of Zhuzhou Smelter, who had been engaged in trading in the international futures market for two years, carried out overdraft trading beyond their authority and sold a large number of zinc futures contracts in LME. Their positions far exceeded the established futures trading scheme, and were watched by foreign financial institutions and forced positions.
When the matter was exposed, it had sold 450000 tons of zinc in the LME market, while the total annual output of Zhuzhou smelter was only 300000 tons.
After the incident, in July 1997, the premier of the State Council held a special office meeting to deal with the “Zhuzhou Smelter incident”. At that time, the heads of relevant competent departments personally stayed in the factory for nearly a month, while taking measures such as position stop loss, margin increase and reasonable time adjustment to deal with the position urgently, while mobilizing the supply of other zinc plants and organizing delivery through various channels, Try to minimize the loss.
However, because the selling position was too large, we had to buy some contracts at a high price to close the position and perform the contract. In the six or seven months since the beginning of 1997, the Bulls pushed up the London zinc price, with an increase of more than 50%, which led to a loss of more than 175.8 million US dollars, equivalent to more than 1459.1 million yuan within three days of the final centralized liquidation of Zhuzhou Smelter.
global market miracle day
European and American stock markets soared
During the day of September 9, A-Shares staged a deep V reversal, leading the global stock market counterattack.
As of press time, European stock markets generally soared by more than 6%, Germany rose by more than 7% in the late trading, US stocks soared by 600 points, and the NASDAQ soared by more than 3%! Crude oil prices plunged.
On the news side, the market is still concerned about the development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. On Thursday, the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine will hold diplomatic talks in Turkey. Analysts believe that the positions of the two sides are significantly eased. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine is no longer keen to join NATO. Previously, Ukraine strongly demanded to join NATO and NATO’s eastward expansion tendency, which is one of the incentives for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman zaharova said on the live broadcast of satellite radio on the 9th that Ukraine has confirmed that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Ukrainian foreign minister kuleba will hold talks during the Antalya diplomatic forum in Turkey on the 10th. Russia believes that if everything goes well, the talks between the two sides will be held as scheduled.
The deputy director of the office of the president of Ukraine said on the 9th local time that if security is provided, the Kiev authorities are ready to discuss the neutrality of the country. Earlier in the day, in an interview with Ukrainian media, the adviser to the director of the office of the president of Ukraine said that Ukraine was ready to negotiate with Russia on neutral status, but it must obtain securitycenter>
