Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) shares in a mineral mining company with a shareholding ratio of 65%. According to tianyancha app, on March 4, a number of industrial and commercial changes took place in the original Yichun Xinfeng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., and the enterprise name was changed to Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd; Yichun Shidai new energy resources Co., Ltd., a new Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) subsidiary of shareholders, holds 65% of the shares.
1. The number one player of new energy, “lithium grabbing” can’t stop
Ningde is not the only one taking root in Yichun. Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) previously announced that it has 2 mining rights and 5 exploration rights of lithium porcelain ore in Yichun, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) started construction in Yichun, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) signed an investment agreement with Yichun Economic Development Zone… The reason is very simple. Yichun has the largest lithium mica ore in the world, and the exploitable amount of lithium oxide accounts for 31% of the country and 12% of the world, It is a well deserved “lithium capital of Asia”.
Overseas, Tesla “grabs lithium” one after another.
On March 2, core lithium, an Australian lithium miner, announced that it had reached an agreement with Tesla to supply it with 110000 tons of spodumene concentrate within four years.
In February, liontown, an Australian lithium miner, announced that it would supply a total of 150000 dry metric tons (DMT) of spodumene concentrate to Tesla within five years.
Last December, Syrah resources, an Australian mining company, said it had signed a four-year supply agreement with Tesla to supply graphite anode materials to Tesla.
In the past month, the price trend of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials continued to be rapid. The transaction price of battery grade lithium carbonate has been concentrated at 470000 ~ 480000 yuan / ton; The transaction price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is about 460000 yuan / ton; Lithium hydroxide 420000 yuan / ton, cobalt sulfate 111500 yuan / ton, lithium iron phosphate cathode 160000 yuan / ton, middle end artificial graphite 51500 yuan / ton. At present, the price of large lithium salt plants has changed from once a month to every two weeks or every week.
According to the latest data of the International Energy Agency, by 2030, there will be about 50% lithium demand gap in the world only by relying on the existing and under construction lithium production projects.
lithium ore prices remain high mainly due to the mismatch between supply and demand
2. Supply end
21 upstream mine supply limited
The global supply of lithium ore is dominated by lithium ore in Western Australia and salt lakes in South America. Lithium mines in Western Australia include greenbushes, MT cattlin, MT Marion, Pilbara, wodgina (the world’s largest known spodumene mine), Altura and bald hills. The seven lithium mines have become the anchor of global lithium price. South American salt lakes, with low cost, are mainly distributed in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, but the capacity expansion is slow. China’s lithium resources rank third in the world, second only to Australia and Chile, and are mainly distributed in Qinghai, Tibet, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Hunan. Among them, Ganzi Prefecture and Aba Prefecture in Sichuan are rich in Spodumene resources, and Yichun region in Jiangxi mainly produces lepidolite.
However, lithium mines in Western Australia are mainly long-term single underwriting, and are concentrated in China’s first and second tier lithium salt processing enterprises. Other enterprises generally need to acquire resources through acquisition, equity participation, loose orders, exploration and other means.
22 mine capacity expansion cycle delay
The mine supply process is divided into three stages: Mine discovery, exploration and research, mine design and construction and mine production; The whole cycle from discovery to supply of the mine takes more than 12 ~ 15 years.
At present, most of the major mines to be developed in the world are in the stage of detailed investigation or exploration. The average time from exploration to mine construction is 1-2 years, but the promotion speed is affected by uncertain factors such as mining approval certificate, surrounding environment, industry prosperity, capital expenditure and national policies, and the time may be prolonged. At least 3-4 years from feasibility study to final production. Generally, it takes 1-2 years to reach the production capacity after being put into operation.
2.3 supplementary supply extraction technology to be improved
MT cattlin guides the output to decline in 2022h1, and the global lithium concentrate bulk supply is expected to be further tightened; At the same time, the overseas long order pricing mechanism is adjusted, and there will be no fixed price contract for the olaroz project in the future, indicating an increase in the scarcity of global lithium resources. For China, salt lake brine lithium resources account for more than 79% of the total lithium resources in China, and the cost of extracting lithium from brine is only about 50% of that from ore; Compared with lithium extraction from spodumene and mica, the cost of extracting lithium from Salt Lake by adsorption method can be controlled below 30000 yuan per ton of lithium carbonate.
Lithium extraction from salt lakes has become an important supplement to imported lithium resources. At present, industrial production has been basically realized in East Taijinar, West Taijinar, Chaerhan, Yiliping and Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet, with a production capacity of about 100000 tons. The cash cost of producing a single ton of lithium carbonate through the salt lake is US $4 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0, which is significantly lower than the cash production cost of extracting lithium from hard rock ore (the cash cost of producing a single ton of lithium carbonate is US $6 Xiandai Investment Co.Ltd(000900) 0).
Most salt lakes in China have low lithium concentration or high magnesium lithium ratio. Due to the similar chemical characteristics of lithium and magnesium, there are great difficulties in separation. The low-cost separation of magnesium and lithium from brine with high magnesium lithium ratio is the difficulty of realizing the comprehensive utilization of resources in the process of extracting lithium from salt lake.
In addition, restricted by the sectorau environment where the salt lake is located, sunshine conditions, fresh water resources, sun farm investment and construction and other factors, the development is more difficult.
3, demand side
has rich application scenarios and rapid growth
Downstream application scenarios of lithium resources include: power batteries, consumer batteries, energy storage and traditional industrial fields. Among them, power batteries and energy storage are the main demand in recent years.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, automobile production and sales increased year-on-year in 2021, ending the decline for three consecutive years since 2018. Among them, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.5 million, and the market share increased to 13.4%. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 3.35 million, including 2.76 million pure electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 121.7%, and 598000 plug-in hybrid vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 162.4%.
Source: data of China Automobile Association and xingkuang
In January 2022, the output of power batteries increased significantly, and lithium iron phosphate increased significantly. The output of ternary battery was 1081530 GWH, with a year-on-year increase of 57.95%, and the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 1879010 GWH, with a year-on-year increase of 261.79%.
In the field of energy storage, at present, lithium iron phosphate is the main energy storage battery. In 2020, the global demand for lithium for energy storage batteries will be 26300 tons. It is estimated that the global demand for lithium for energy storage batteries will be 204400 tons in 2025 (CAGR = 50.7%).
In 2020, the demand for lithium in the four downstream application scenarios of power battery, consumer battery, energy storage battery and traditional industry will be 370000 tons, and in 2025, the demand for lithium will be 1.48 million tons, CAGR = 31.95%.
4. Capacity inventory of each company
41 distribution of overseas lithium resources
Source: public information and star mining data
42 distribution of lithium resources in China
Source: public information and star mining data
43 summary
Looking at the distribution of lithium resources in China, Sichuan and Jiangxi lithium mines are expected to take the lead in becoming the main force of domestic supply of lithium resources; The upgrading technology of lithium extraction from Salt Lake, lithium mica and lithium clay are important supplements. The advantages of mining rights enable enterprises to have relatively lower costs and enjoy higher gross profit margin. With the increase of uncertainty in the progress of overseas new supply, the mismatch between supply and demand of lithium resources continues, and companies with upstream mining rights and self supply security of resources are expected to continue to benefit from industry dividends.
Source: China’s Ministry of resources, xingkuang data
