This year's government work report proposes to promote the energy revolution and promote the low-carbon transformation of energy.
Not only China, the German Ministry of economy recently issued a draft legislation on "achieving the goal of 100% renewable energy power supply 15 years ahead of schedule (to 2035)", which also strengthened the expectations of all circles for accelerating the low-carbon transformation of global energy.
In 2022, the "double carbon" goal was written into the government work report for the second time, and continued the general tone of "building a safe and reliable alternative to traditional energy" put forward by the central economic work conference held from December 8 to December 10, 2021, that is, promoting carbon peak and carbon neutralization in an orderly manner, and adhering to the general tone of "building first and breaking later".
This year's "green technology system" work is different from the previous "green technology system" work, and the "green technology system" work should be promoted at the same time, There must also be "overall planning".
In this reform jointly launched by the global green new deal, China's energy, especially China's renewable energy industry, has the first opportunity. Taking photovoltaic as an example, according to the latest data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the export volume of China's photovoltaic products reached US $28 billion in 2021, a record high; By the end of last year, China's output of photovoltaic modules had ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years. However, if the temporary victory in quantity or the temporary advantage in production capacity and technology cannot be supported by the continuous activity of R & D and innovation activities in the whole society, it may disappear in an instant; In contrast, scientific and technological progress depends on accumulation. There is not only no shortcut, but also the so-called "subversion".
From this perspective, in the overall work of "double carbon", it is one of the key points in urgent need of "overall planning" and coordination of all parties to "pay close attention to tackling key problems of green and low-carbon technology", "promote the R & D, promotion and application of green and low-carbon technology, and build a green manufacturing and service system". It is not only related to whether China's renewable energy industry can stay ahead, but also the core meaning of China's "double carbon" journey, so as to "implement the new development concept, build a new development pattern and promote high-quality development".
take photovoltaic as an example
multiple factors affecting the technical route
Looking at the world from the perspective of the capital market, China's clean energy industry is in the general trend of "certainty" of global low-carbon energy transformation, but it is also experiencing a turbulent undercurrent of disputes over technical routes and intellectual property rights. The "uncertainty" contained in it is the opportunity that value investment needs to grasp.
Taking photovoltaic as an example, reviewing its development is like a soul stirring "history of technology competition", including unexpected "Jedi counterattack" and "latecomers".
The same is true in the future. The China photovoltaic industry association previously predicted that although the new mass production line in China in 2021 is still dominated by perc battery production line. However, in 2022, n-type batteries (mainly represented by TOPCON batteries and hjt batteries) are expected to increase rapidly, and the market share may increase from 3% to 13.4%.
This means that in the hot photovoltaic industry, another technical route dispute involving multiple parties (perc battery, TOPCON battery and hjt battery related capacity and interest groups behind) and related to survival has begun.
Which technical route will win in this competition? The fundamental lies in who can better meet the "demand" of the market and who can provide higher "cost performance".
According to the data of Germany's Hamelin Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) Research Institute (ISFH), the ultimate theoretical efficiency (photoelectric conversion efficiency, one of the important "performance" parameters) of TOPCON battery can reach 28.7%, slightly ahead of 27.5% of hjt and significantly exceeding 24.5% of perc. Because of this, with the mass production of n-type technology, the photoelectric conversion efficiency and production cost (yield) are gradually close to expectations. It is generally believed in the industry that the next generation of mainstream photovoltaic cell technology will be determined in TOPCON and hjt.
"At present, the mass production efficiency of tigerneo battery (TOPCON) has reached more than 24%, with a sprint of 25% in the year. More importantly, the production yield has been the same as that of perc." Qian Jing, vice president of Jingke energy, told reporters that in her opinion, TOPCON has nearly zero light attenuation, temperature coefficient far lower than perc, higher double-sided rate and weak light. "This determines that TOPCON has the advantages of full scene application and better power generation gain compared with perc, and will bring greater investment income in the future."
In fact, from the "performance" mentioned above, the data mastered by the reporter shows that hjt does not lag behind TOPCON However, the factors that may hinder the phased increase of market share of hjt are precisely from the "price": at present, the investment in hjt production line is significantly higher than that of TOPCON. On this basis, TOPCON can be compatible with perc production line to the greatest extent (by transforming perc production line, it can be upgraded to TOPCON, further greatly saving one-time investment; according to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) data, at least half of China's over 200gwperc production lines can be upgraded to TOPCON), and the production difficulty is far lower than other n-type technical routes.
It should be noted that in terms of photovoltaic, there is an upper limit on the "performance" of batteries in different technical routes (such as ultimate theoretical efficiency), but the space for the decline of "price" may be beyond imagination. The statistical model that can be used for reference shows that for every doubling of photovoltaic manufacturing capacity in history, the corresponding production cost can be reduced by 22.8%.
This also means that in the duel between TOPCON and hjt, the disadvantage of hjt's "price" can be reversed through capital investment, mature technology, complete supporting facilities and capacity improvement, so as to improve its "cost performance". In other words, the key factor determining the outcome is still "performance", but on the premise that "performance" is close, "cost performance" advantage may boost the phased victory of a technical route.
The problem also follows. On the basis that hjt's "performance" is equal to TOPCON, should we apply "external force" to help it reverse its "price" disadvantage?
identify the enterprise as the innovation subject
promoting innovation and promoting the energy revolution
\u3000\u3000 "I think the answer is yes. The technical route dispute between TOPCON and hjt is only the" tip of the iceberg "in many technical competitions in the photovoltaic industry; the hero of" cost performance "is only limited to the photovoltaic installation market. From the perspective of industry, capital market and even the country, what we pursue is actually China's photovoltaic industry and even all Chinese industries, and similar t Opcon and hjt are promising emerging technologies. In this way, our industry can enhance the right to speak and maintain the advanced nature through full technological competition. An industry researcher who declined to be named told reporters.
But the key is, what kind of "external force" can "moderately" and effectively guide capital investment and help hjt mature technology and improve supporting facilities, so as to improve its production capacity and "cost performance" and enhance industrial competitiveness? In the view of the above industry researchers, "only 'overall planning' and accurate and powerful governance.
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"Achieving 'overall planning' is not only the key point of generating benefits from governance, but also a major difficulty, especially for science and technology policy-making." Geng Zhanxiu, former inspector of the High Tech Department of the Ministry of science and technology, told reporters, "Science and technology policy-making often takes into account whether a technology has advanced nature, whether it has the prospect of industrialization, whether it is conducive to the development of the industry, whether it is environmental protection, and so on. It can decide how much effort should be taken to support the high-tech enterprises, scientific research projects and preferential tax policies. In this process, I think," play the business skills ". 'the main role of technological innovation 'should be a fundamental measure. "
The above industry researchers hold the same view, "enterprises are most sensitive to market changes. Extensive screening and adoption of their opinions can effectively ensure the benefits of governance. At the same time, the innovation of new technologies also needs the help of enterprises and industries, and the final decision on which technologies win should still be in the hands of the market."
"In addition to 'giving full play to the main role of enterprise technological innovation', governance must also focus on mobilizing the enthusiasm of the industry and even the whole society for R & D and innovation activities. Only by creating a fair atmosphere and vigorously promoting innovation, this' low-carbon transformation of energy 'can finally be called an' energy revolution '." Industry researchers told reporters.
