Recently, the global financial market is facing great pressure, and the A-share market is also affected to a certain extent. Insiders said that the current A-share shock was mainly caused by global risk disturbance, which did not fully reflect the expectation of China's fundamental improvement. On the whole, the A-share market fluctuates in the short term, but it is not pessimistic in the medium and long term. The demand for stable growth is strong. The positive factors are revised. The fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth remain unchanged, and the stable and healthy development of the market has a solid foundation.
short term disturbance factors are expected to slow down
On March 8, the three major indexes continued to fluctuate and fall. As of the closing of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 329353 points, down 2.35%, the Shenzhen composite index closed at 1224450 points, down 2.62%, and the gem index closed at 258299 points, down 1.80%. Recently, affected by multiple factors, the overall correction of the A-share market is large. The data show that as of the closing on March 8, the above three indexes have fallen by 4.87%, 9.00% and 10.35% respectively since March. In terms of industry, automobile, household appliances and power equipment industry led the decline.
Industry insiders believe that global risk disturbance factors, including geopolitics and interest rate hike expectations, are an important reason for the recent A-share market shock, and also have an impact on the market at the level of investor sentiment. But overall, the short-term disturbance factors will gradually slow down.
"The recent shock of A-Shares mainly comes from overseas risk disturbance. The continuous rise of commodity prices represented by crude oil has exacerbated global inflation. At the same time, the rise of geopolitical uncertainty has also led to the change of global capital preference, the reduction of equity allocation and the strengthening of safe haven asset allocation." Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, told the economic information daily that in addition, under inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve had to enter the interest rate hike cycle, and the tightening of liquidity also led to a sharp decline in the global stock market. "But overall, China's fiscal and monetary policies remain coordinated, China's macro-economy and macro liquidity are basically guaranteed, and overseas risk disturbances will slow down over time."
"Geopolitics is the direct cause of the recent decline of a shares. The global interest rate rise cycle after the interest rate cut and the impact of the epidemic on economic recovery will also cause market fluctuations. In addition, there are unstable factors of high valuation in the A-share market itself." Fu Lichun, an economist and founding partner of Yuntai capital, said.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief economist Xun Yugen believes that generally speaking, the Asia Pacific stock market and European stock market have experienced relatively deep declines recently, and the decline of A-Shares is mainly dragged down by external factors. "Since this year, the external factors have been negative, but the internal factors are positive. In particular, setting a GDP growth target of about 5.5% this year is a strong support for the market."
long term fundamentals of A-Shares remain stable
Although the current market is still in a structural market with repeated shocks, people in the industry generally believe that the current A-share fundamentals have not changed. In the medium and long term, the long-term fundamentals of China's economy remain unchanged, and the stable and healthy development of the market has a solid foundation.
The newly released foreign trade data highlights the good start of China's economy in 2022. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value was 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, the export was 3.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%; Imports reached 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9%; The trade surplus was 738.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3%.
Li Kuiwen, director of the statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of customs, said that although the external environment facing foreign trade development is becoming more complex and uncertain, it has still achieved a stable start. This is mainly due to the fact that the fundamentals of China's strong economic resilience and long-term improvement have not changed, and the steady growth policies and measures are moving forward.
Chen Li told reporters that from the macro perspective, the government work report sets the GDP target at about 5.5%. At the same time, it plans to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, superimposed with 1.2 trillion yuan of special bonds last year. This year, the tone of "steady growth" throughout the year is clear, and infrastructure investment is expected to increase. "On the whole, these macro target data highlight the relatively positive fiscal policy this year. It is expected that China will have relatively abundant liquidity throughout the year, and corporate profits will also be guaranteed."
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist Wang Hanfeng also believes that although the global market may still fluctuate in the future, the future policy space of the Chinese market is relatively sufficient. The gradual improvement of China's economic fundamentals under the comprehensive "steady growth" policy is still a probability event. In the medium term, China's capital market is expected to show relative resilience. Huaxia Fund also said that the current adjustment of the stock market did not fully reflect the expectation of the improvement of China's fundamentals, but was dominated by short-term panic. At present, it is still optimistic about the medium-term trend of the market.
China Merchants Fund said that looking forward to the future, the A-share market will work along the undervalued value and strive to grasp infrastructure and consumption. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the short-term adjustment of the market. The two sessions have released positive signals. The GDP target growth rate of about 5.5% in 2022 indicates that steady growth will accelerate and corporate profits will accelerate. Overall, the A-share market fluctuates in the short term, but is not pessimistic in the medium and long term. The demand for stable growth is strong, the positive factors are revised, and the risk appetite is expected to rise slowly from the low level.
For the future layout direction, Chen Li said that first, the nonferrous metals sector, and the development of infrastructure is expected to provide continuous support to the demand side; Second, high-end manufacturing. Science and technology are the primary productivity. Strengthening support for scientific and technological innovation enterprises and scientific research projects is also the key to improving the core competitiveness of Chinese enterprises and promoting economic development. At the same time, if China wants to get rid of the "middle-income trap", it is necessary to develop high-end manufacturing industry and implement key core technology research projects, Realize scientific and technological innovation and lead high-quality economic development; Third, the direction of new and old infrastructure. The main tone of "steady growth" is clear. It can be seen from the data of special bonds that the investment in infrastructure is expected to increase significantly compared with previous years, and relevant industries are expected to benefit.
