Today (March 9), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board. After the initial shock and consolidation, they dived back quickly, showing a pulse downward trend with a panoramic view of the decline.
From the disk point of view, the general decline reappeared, and the four sectors of precious metals, architectural decoration, coal and electric power broke out of the siege, showing relatively resistance to decline. In the precious metal sector, as of press time, Zhongrun Resources Investment Corporation(000506) limit, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , etc. followed the rise; In the building decoration sector, Shenzhen Ruihe Construction Decoration Co.Ltd(002620) , Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co.Ltd(002941) , Longjian Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(600853) , Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) , etc. staged a rising tide.
Minsheng Securities said that under the deflationary environment in the past, it was customary to think that "high-quality" assets need to be judged again, and the main line of "hard waiting" of some investors may leave for a long time. At present, the order we recommend is: the inflation transaction is the most certain, buying nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), crude oil (oil transportation, oil and gas exploitation) and coal; The probability of demand recovery is increasing, and the layout: banking, real estate and construction.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[Topic 1] precious metals
East Asia Qianhai Securities said that the intensification of international geopolitical contradictions is the main reason for the recent rise in gold prices. In addition, global inflation continued to rise, creating conditions for the rise in gold prices. First, according to the CPI year-on-year data released by European and American countries, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January 2022, the highest level since August 1982; In January 2022, the CPI of the euro zone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high. The recent rising crude oil price also reflects that the current inflation level is further rising. As an anti inflation asset, gold has sufficient upward mobility under the current high inflation level.
Secondly, the current market expectations for future interest rate hikes are becoming stronger and stronger. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be strong in the process of this round of interest rate hikes. On the one hand, as the time approaches March, the gold price remains strong, indicating that the negative effect of the current interest rate hike on gold is weakening and the market expectation is gradually digested. On the other hand, it is expected that this interest rate increase will have a limited impact on gold prices. During the past six interest rate hikes, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States has continued to increase, so this interest rate hike may not have an essential impact on inflation; At the same time, raising interest rates will curb economic recovery. As of February 23, 2022, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds was about 1.99%, up about 0.36pct from the beginning of the year The rapid rise of interest rate will bring operating pressure to enterprises and is not conducive to economic recovery.
Open source securities also pointed out that, on the one hand, the global risk aversion continued to heat up, driving the price of precious metals to rise further. On the other hand, as the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on gold tends to weaken, inflation trading has become the mainstream of the market and constitutes medium-term support for gold prices. The main beneficiaries include Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , etc.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that historically, the rise of gold price is conducive to the improvement of gross profit margin of gold jewelry sales, thus driving the overall profitability of the industry. At present, there is still no obvious downward trend in the prosperity of gold and jewelry. In particular, various gold jewelry companies focusing on gold sales still have pulse opportunities in the short term. On the contrary, the demand for mass consumer goods still lacks long-term driving factors, the offline retail sector is still under pressure, and short-term suggestions are mainly on the sidelines. To sum up, we are most optimistic about the gold jewelry sector, and the valuation of gold jewelry companies is generally low and relatively safe.
[Topic 2] electric power
Yingda Securities said that the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan attaches great importance to promoting the technological development and large-scale application of the new energy storage industry, emphasizes clarifying the transmission mechanism of energy storage price, accelerating the large-scale development of energy storage on the power supply side, power grid side and user side, and supporting the construction of a new power system. By 2025, new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented, basically meeting the needs of building a new power system, and comprehensively supporting the realization of the goal of carbon peak in the energy field as scheduled. With the cost reduction driven by technological progress and the continuous improvement of price mechanism and market mechanism, the types of new energy storage will be enriched, and the industry will usher in a period of rapid development.
Chuancai securities mentioned that with the deepening of the "double carbon" policy, the proportion of photovoltaic wind power and other new energy power generation in the energy structure continues to increase, but the intermittent and unstable characteristics of new energy power generation pose a challenge to the consumption capacity of the power grid. The development of new energy storage will effectively improve the grid connection and consumption capacity of new energy, promote the construction of new power system, and provide guarantee for the vigorous development of new energy.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that under the goal of carbon neutrality, the wind and solar installation center is expected to further rise during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In the photovoltaic field, it is suggested to focus on the silicon leaders Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , new and special energy, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , and the integrated leaders Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , which benefit from the continuous tight supply and demand pattern, Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) etc. of inverter link, faucet of adhesive film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , high-quality supplier of carbon / carbon heat field Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , faucet of battery laser equipment Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , faucet of component series welding machine Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; In the field of wind power, it is suggested to focus on Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc., which benefit from the upgrading of wind power technology; In the field of energy storage, Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) and Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) in the field of pumped storage are recommended.
[Theme 3] coal
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that the tight international coal supply has pushed up the international coal price, even exceeding the high point in 2021, constantly breaking the record high, forming support for China's coal price, and the industry as a whole will maintain a high boom. In terms of individual stock recommendation, companies with a high proportion of long-term association have more stable performance growth, companies with a high proportion of coal in the market have more attractive valuation, and companies with large coal advantages or production growth logic have strong competitiveness α In addition, coal stocks that actively layout energy transformation will also get the opportunity to improve their valuation.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that it is suggested to pay attention to the configuration value of the coal sector. We expect that the quarterly average net profit of thermal coal enterprises in 2022 will remain at the average level of the third and fourth quarters of 2021. According to the closing price on March 7, the dynamic PE of most thermal coal enterprises in 2022 is about 7 times; The average net profit of coking coal and anthracite enterprises in the quarter of 2022 will be close to the profit level in the fourth quarter of 2021, corresponding to a dynamic PE of about 7.56 times in 2022 The net profit of power coal enterprises will increase by 27% - 88% and that of coking coal and anthracite enterprises will increase by 20% - 73% for each subsequent increase of 100 yuan / ton of power coal (corresponding increase of 220 yuan / ton of coking coal). It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation value of coal sector. Considering the valuation, flexibility, dividend yield and product added value, it is recommended to pay attention to Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) .
Guosheng securities mentioned that after entering the off-season of demand in March, coal prices may show a seasonal downward trend. However, if the problem of low coastal inventory cannot be effectively solved, the coal price may rise again after the periodic decline. In addition, China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited space for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the rise of coal price center will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. In addition, the increase of Hong Kong coal stocks in this round is much higher than that of a shares, which also reflects that under the macro environment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, foreign capital pursues the target of high dividend, and the subsequent A shares are expected to catch up.
[theme 4] architectural decoration
Minsheng Securities said that "stability" is the main theme of 2022. As an important means to ensure China's steady economic growth, the investment growth rate of the infrastructure industry is expected to stabilize and recover. Among them, municipal construction, petrochemical and natural gas pipelines, engineering facilities and power demand will help usher in the explosion of pipe demand. With the mild production restriction of steel mills, the steel price has dropped significantly compared with the peak, and the profits of pipe enterprises are expected to be further thickened.
In addition, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities mentioned that under the influence of global uncertainties, the recovery trend of infrastructure investment is highly deterministic, leading enterprises in subdivided industries are abundant in orders and have strong risk resistance. Investment opportunities for earthquake mitigation and isolation under high-quality development: long-term efforts have been made in disaster prevention and mitigation, legislation has been passed, and 20-30 times of space can be expected. Relevant targets such as Quakesafe Technologies Co.Ltd(300767) , Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) "transportation power" and rail transit sector have long-term benefits: there is a broad demand for the construction of "Urban Agglomeration" on the track, and relevant targets such as Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) ; Under the expectation of the improvement of China's infrastructure investment margin in the second half of the year, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities related to the industrial chain: pay attention to the undervalued targets China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) ; Leading infrastructure enterprises with steady main business and mineral resources: Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) ; Under the background of dual control of energy consumption, high-quality targets in green power, BIPV and other related fields: Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) .
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that prefabricated buildings are in line with the development direction of green buildings, and the central government and provinces and cities continue to issue policies to promote the penetration of prefabricated buildings. The aging trend of construction workers is obvious, and the labor cost is also increasing. Prefabricated buildings have obvious advantages over traditional cast-in-place buildings in terms of labor cost. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Hangxiao Steel Structure Co.Ltd(600477) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , and Yuanda residential workers.
Shengang Securities said that under the background of strong foundation construction and real estate recovery, pipes, steel structures and waterproof are relatively clear directions, and the cement demand pattern is also better. There will be a large increase in the demand side of Engineering PE pipes. In terms of target selection, we believe that in addition to grasping China Liansu, we should pay full attention to Weixing's advantages in PE water supply and gas pipeline business. In addition, we can consider Guangdong Xiongsu Technology Group Co.Ltd(300599) , which has low energy utilization rate and greater marginal improvement elasticity. The main logic of steel structure is that the proportion of steel structure fabricated buildings in public investment projects is gradually increasing, and the dominant position of waterproof leader Yuhong in public investment projects is not fully recognized, which brings layout opportunities.
