Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Cinda Securities: the current is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector! It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines
At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
We continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Guosheng Securities: stick to core assets! Optimistic about the valuation and repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises
After entering the off-season of demand in March, coal prices may show a seasonal downward trend. However, if the problem of low coastal inventory cannot be effectively solved, the coal price may rise again after the periodic decline. In addition, China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited space for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the rise of coal price center will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. In addition, the increase of Hong Kong coal stocks in this round is much higher than that of a shares, which also reflects that under the macro environment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, foreign capital pursues the target of high dividend, and the subsequent A shares are expected to catch up.
əəəəəəəə. In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of "double carbon" is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the global coal shortage is intensifying, and the international coal price continues to set a record high
The tense international coal supply has pushed up the international coal price, even exceeding the high point in 2021, constantly breaking the record high, forming support for China's coal price, and the industry as a whole will maintain a high boom. In terms of individual stock recommendation, companies with a high proportion of long-term association have more stable performance growth, companies with a high proportion of coal in the market have more attractive valuation, and companies with large coal advantages or production growth logic have strong competitiveness α In addition, coal stocks that actively layout energy transformation will also get the opportunity to improve their valuation.
Thermal coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : the medium and long-term tight balance of coal is worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to the configuration value of coal sector
The medium and long-term tight balance of coal is worth looking forward to. (1) According to the 2020 annual report on coal industry development issued by China Coal Industry Association, by the end of the 14th five year plan, China's coal output target is to control at about 4.1 billion tons, while the national raw coal output in 2021 is 4.13 billion tons, which means that the growth space of national coal output in the future is very limited; (2) Coal for energy consumption accounts for 69% of the coal demand. According to the prediction of China Power Council, the power consumption of the whole society will increase by 5% - 6% year-on-year in 2022. In recent years, the proportion of coal in energy consumption has slowed down. According to our calculation, there is still room for growth in coal demand; (3) Referring to the carbon peak in the United States and Japan, it is expected that China's coal consumption will maintain a high level before the carbon peak (2030).
It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation value of the coal sector. We expect that the quarterly average net profit of thermal coal enterprises in 2022 will remain at the average level of the third and fourth quarters of 2021. According to the closing price on March 7, the dynamic PE of most thermal coal enterprises in 2022 is about 7 times; The average net profit of coking coal and anthracite enterprises in the quarter of 2022 will be close to the profit level in the fourth quarter of 2021, corresponding to a dynamic PE of about 7.56 times in 2022 The net profit of power coal enterprises will increase by 27% - 88% and that of coking coal and anthracite enterprises will increase by 20% - 73% for each subsequent increase of 100 yuan / ton of power coal (corresponding increase of 220 yuan / ton of coking coal). It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation value of coal sector. Considering the valuation, flexibility, dividend yield and product added value, it is recommended to pay attention to Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: value discovery will become the main theme of coal stock investment in 2022! Discover three alpha opportunities
Value discovery will become the main theme of coal stock investment in 2022, and explore three alpha opportunities at the same time. 1) Under the policy adjustment, the high elasticity of performance brought by the sharp rise in prices will be difficult to appear in 2022, but it can be clear that the profit center of the industry will jump to a higher level. It is estimated that the profit of the sector increased by about 80% in the first quarter, and the value discovery will become the main driving law of coal stock investment in 2022. 2) The industry capital expenditure - cash flow - Finance - profit - dividend will be continuously optimized. The new dividend scheme under the high long-term association and high profit in the annual report is worth looking forward to, and the transformation of some enterprises is expected to accelerate.
In terms of investment suggestions, 1) the main line of the year: high dividend, green power transformation, growth coal chemical industry, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) / Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) / power investment energy, China Xuyang group / Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; 2) Sitting on overseas coal resources: Yankuang energy (also high dividend); 3) Resource quality enterprises: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Capital Securities: the coal price continued to be strong in the first quarter, and the performance was determined to drive the continuous repair of valuation
Coal prices continued to be strong in the first quarter, and the determination of performance drove the continuous repair of valuation. In the first quarter, with the continuous recovery of coal production and the easing of overseas situation, coal prices have continued to rise since January. The performance of the first quarter is highly deterministic, and the profit level of coal enterprises has remained at a high level in the same period. In the second quarter, we expect that the coal price will fall with the stability of the overseas situation and the recovery of China's supply, and the deepening of the market-oriented reform of downstream electricity price will open up the space for the rise of coal price. It is expected that the price of thermal coal will remain at a high level for nearly three years throughout the year. We believe that the constraints on coal capacity supply in the future will continue to exist, The continuous rise of overseas coal prices and the response of market coal other than Changxie coal to the coal gap will continue to stimulate the fluctuation of China's coal price, steady growth and the instability of the external situation. The position of coal as a "ballast" of energy is unshakable, the continuous correction of policies, and the rational understanding of coal consumption will gradually deepen. With the continuous improvement of the performance of coal enterprises, We believe that the valuation repair market will continue to be reflected in the future market.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) : the sustainability of the performance of key listed companies in the coking coal sector has triple support
We believe that at this stage, the spot price of coking coal and the sustainability of the performance of key listed companies in the coking coal sector have triple support: 1) demand is expected to continue to recover under the background of "steady growth" and "moderately advanced infrastructure investment"; 2) Australian coal imports are short-term or difficult to liberalize, the import volume of Outer Mongolia is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the current situation of overseas imports is weak or difficult to improve; 3) Shanxi and Shandong provinces are carrying out coal mine safety supervision actions, and it may be difficult for China's coking coal supply to increase in the short term.
Under the triple support, the high performance of key listed companies in the sector is expected to continue, corresponding to the current valuation may still be underestimated. We recommend continuing to pay attention to the core targets of coking coal: Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) and Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) . In addition, Yankuang energy, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , which are subject to strong performance flexibility from a short-term perspective, can be concerned.
Minsheng Securities: coal enterprises with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to face value revaluation
Under the continuous catalysis of "stable growth" in the later stage, the downstream demand is expected to remain high and the coal price support is strong. Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
