A shares continued to fall. In early trading today, the three major indexes fell more than 1%, of which the gem index fell another 1.61%. The net outflow from the North exceeded 4.2 billion yuan.
Nearly 4000 shares fell.
Of course, first of all, let’s take a look at the latest situation in Russia and Ukraine.
the United States will deploy two Patriot missile defense systems to Poland
On March 8 local time, a spokesman for the US European Command said that in order to deal with the potential threat posed by the Russian Ukrainian conflict to the United States and NATO allies, the United States would deploy two sets of “Patriot” missile defense systems to Poland.
Saudi Arabia and UAE leaders refuse to answer US President Biden
According to the US “Capitol Hill news”, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates refused to talk to US President Biden.
According to the information disclosed by U.S. officials involved in the matter, Biden’s call may involve oil import and export issues with the two Middle East oil producing countries. Considering the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on oil and gas prices in Europe and the United States, analysts believe that Biden may need to discuss the business of introducing oil with the other party. In addition, the United States also needs the cooperation and participation of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in dealing with the Iranian issue.
For the reason for refusing the call, the Capitol Hill newspaper believes that this may be that the Biden authorities did not give sufficient support in the armed conflict between Saudi Arabia and Hussein, Yemen, and did not take into account the wishes of the two countries when restarting negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue.
\u3000\u3000
vice president of the United States will visit ask Poland and Romania
US Vice President Harris will visit Poland and Romania from September 9 to 11.
According to US media reports on March 8 local time, Harris will meet with the leaders of the two countries and discuss how the United States can further support Ukraine’s neighbors to receive Ukrainian refugees.
Poland proposes to hand over fighter planes to the United States and Ukraine
US rejected
According to CNN, Pentagon spokesman Kirby said on the 8th local time that the Pentagon rejected Poland’s proposal to hand over the MiG-29 fighter to the United States and turn it over to Ukraine, saying the proposal was “untenable”.
Reported that Kirby said in a statement that the Pentagon is in contact with the Polish government on this issue, but Poland’s proposal shows the “complexity” of transferring fighters to Ukraine.
According to the Russian satellite news agency, the Pentagon also said that Poland’s transfer of fighters to Ukraine is a private matter of the country, but it is unreasonable to use the airports of NATO countries for this purpose.
According to China Central Television News, on March 8 local time, the Polish Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the US Secretary of state’s transfer of fighter planes to Ukraine. The statement said that after consultation between the Polish President and the Polish government, Poland is ready to immediately transfer all MiG-29 fighters to Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany free of charge and hand them over to the United States for disposal. At the same time, Poland asked the United States to provide it with second-hand fighters with similar combat capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately set the conditions for purchasing these fighters.
The Polish government also asked other NATO countries with MiG-29 fighters to take similar actions.
shell quits Russian oil and gas business
Starbucks suspends business in Russia, McDonald’s closes 850 stores in Russia
On March 8 local time, McDonald’s, an American catering chain, announced that it would temporarily close 850 stores in Russia, but would continue to pay employees’ wages, and its Ronald McDonald House charities would continue to operate. On the same day, Starbucks and Coca Cola also announced the suspension of their business in Russia.
According to market watch, shell announced on its official website on the 8th that it would stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil and would not renew long-term contracts, but the existing purchase contracts would continue to be implemented. In addition, shell will withdraw from all oil and gas projects in Russia in stages, including crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas and liquefied natural gas. It will also close gas stations, aviation fuels and lubricants in Russia.
Shell CEO van burden said: we clearly realize that our decision to buy Russian oil last week was incorrect. We are changing the crude oil supply chain to reduce crude oil from Russia. We will finish the work as soon as possible, which may take several weeks. Shell bought 100000 tons of Russia’s flagship ural crude oil on Friday, Bloomberg reported. The price paid by the company was $28.50 a barrel lower than the international benchmark Brent crude oil, the largest discount on record.
Stocks fell sharply
100 billion giant fell again, leading emergency response
Back to a shares. Nickel mining, digital currency, CRO, military industry and other sectors led the decline, while coal and semiconductors strengthened against the market.
This morning, nickel concept stocks fell sharply at the opening, and the index closed down nearly 7%,
Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) fell more than 18%, and Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Ningbo United Group Co.Ltd(600051) and others were close to the limit.
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) opened quickly and fell to the limit, which was the second consecutive day of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) falling to the limit.
On the news side, recently, the situation that Qingshan holdings was forced to hold positions by foreign giants has caused a lot of uproar. It is rumored that Castle Peak Group, which has signed a supply contract with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , broke its position due to holding an empty order for nickel.
Gem Co.Ltd(002340) also fell nearly 7%.
In this regard, Gem Co.Ltd(002340) midday announcement said that the company did not participate in nickel futures trading and its operation was not affected by the nickel futures event.
The description is as follows: 1 Gem Co.Ltd(002340) has never participated in the operation of nickel futures, and the current position of nickel futures is zero. This nickel futures event has nothing to do with Gem Co.Ltd(002340) and the company’s production, operation and operating performance are not affected by this nickel futures event; 2. The export orders of Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ternary precursor orders account for more than 60%, and the trading is carried out based on the monthly average price. The sharp decline and rise of nickel in the short term will not affect the pricing system of Gem Co.Ltd(002340) trading and have no substantive impact on Gem Co.Ltd(002340) operation; At present, the company’s monthly shipments of ternary precursors are nearly 10000 tons. The company’s total orders of ternary precursors exceed 200000 tons in 2022. The company’s production capacity has the ability to submit documents. The company will make every effort to complete the market submission of documents in 2022.
3. The construction and operation of Gem Co.Ltd(002340) Indonesia nickel resources project will not be affected by this nickel futures event.
analysis: nickel short order was forced to close
with a loss of USD 6 billion of an enterprise in Zhejiang Province
On March 8, the London Metal Exchange (LME) decided to suspend nickel contract trading in all places of LME from 08:15 London time (16:15 Beijing time) and give CCB international more time to make up the margin that could not be added on time. At present, the margin of LME nickel contract will be calculated according to the closing price on March 7 Cancel the nickel trading executed on the OTC and select screen trading system on or after 0:00 on March 8, UK time, and postpone the delivery of all spot nickel contracts originally scheduled to be delivered on March 9.
In this regard, according to the research and analysis of the non-ferrous metals industry of Huachuang securities, the nickel short order was closed successfully with a loss of US $6 billion of an enterprise in Zhejiang.
1. Relevant departments and LME are the key to solve the problem
According to the 200000 ton electrolytic nickel empty order of an enterprise in Zhejiang of US $20000 / ton, the highest amount of LME nickel today is US $100000 / ton, which means a maximum floating loss of US $16 billion. If LME does not give CCB International ( China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) subsidiary) more time to make up for the failure to add margin to the exchange due to the failure of a metal industry customer to pay margin, it means that CCB defaults and all positions can be forced to balance and directly generate a maximum loss of US $16 billion. After the loss, CCB will recover from an enterprise in Zhejiang, An enterprise in Zhejiang can’t get so much money. Even if CCB helps it make up the deposit, the nickel position squeeze will not end. The continued sharp rise in nickel price means that the risk exposure left to CCB is unlimited. The so-called unlimited backward position transfer or unwillingness to admit defeat of an enterprise in Zhejiang is to use CCB’s money to draw chestnuts from the fire, which CCB cannot agree. On March 8, China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) chairman paid a visit to the chairman of Minmetals Group and reached a consensus on future in-depth strategic cooperation. Minmetals started as a central enterprise in non-ferrous metal trade, which shows that CCB began to seek the support of professional companies and carry out self-help. Minmetals can coordinate the source of goods to help it deliver. The consent of Glencore and other bulls is also a necessary condition for solving the problem. HKEx is the major shareholder of LME, which is helpful to solve the problem, but LME’s action is more to resolve the market risk. It does not intervene or directly flatten. Long positions float in profit, but short positions go bankrupt and can’t afford to pay. What it gets is also a blank check.
2. An enterprise in Zhejiang ended up with a loss of $6 billion
According to the closing price of LME nickel of US $50000 / ton on March 7, the margin scale is US $6 billion, and the approximate rate is still advanced by CCB, and then an enterprise in Zhejiang will raise funds to repay it to CCB. The debt can be repaid with the annual profit of an enterprise in Zhejiang of about 20 billion yuan. If there is no agreement to close the position, it will push CCB and itself into bankruptcy. An enterprise in Zhejiang holds an empty order of 200000 tons of electrolytic nickel, but it only produces ferronickel and delivers the warehouse with purchased Russian nickel and other goods. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine leads to the lack of goods and finally forms a tight warehouse. We believe that the speculative component of Qingshan’s operation is greater than hedging. The company’s speculation scale has always been large, and it once closed its position to Glencore and achieved success. If you can’t learn a lesson, you will eventually pay a higher price.
3. Glencore and other overseas traders took profits smoothly
Most of the losses of an enterprise in Zhejiang were the profits of overseas traders such as Glencore and Trafigura. Although Glencore can make more profits, it may also be a bad check. It is unclear whether an enterprise in Zhejiang will transfer its equity to Glencore.
4. Nickel price will return to normal and fall
In the short term, after the closing, the nickel price will return to normal. At present, it is the lowest inventory in history, so it is difficult for the nickel price to fall. In the medium and long term, the supply of nickel is expected to increase by 350000 tons to 2.67 million tons in 22 years, with a growth rate of 15%. Stainless steel accounts for 80% of nickel demand, with an annual growth rate of about 7%. Electric vehicles account for 10% of the demand for nickel. According to the consumption of 50kg of a ternary lithium battery electric vehicle, 1.5 million new vehicles will be added, driving the demand to increase by 75000 tons. Nickel prices are expected to fall steadily. However, the futures delivery products are electrolytic nickel. It is more speculative to empty the futures without producing electrolytic nickel.
cro crashed again
Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) plunged 6.5% again
At the same time, the cro index collapsed again, fell rapidly after the opening, and closed down nearly 4% by midday.
The 100 billion giant Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) continued to decline by 6.5%. Its latest share price was 91.8 yuan, leaving only 265 billion yuan in market value.
Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) fell nearly 6%, Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) both fell more than 5%.
photovoltaic and semiconductor bucked the trend
gold soared
Gold rose higher, with the index up more than 3%.
Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) rose higher.
Photovoltaic and semiconductor bucked the market and strengthened. The index rose nearly 2%.
Beijing Jiayu Door Window And Curtain Wall Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(300117) once rose nearly 20% and closed up 7.45%.
Clenergy(Xiamen)Technology Co.Ltd(603628) limit, Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , etc.
According to the news, the national energy administration has successfully promoted the first batch of 100 million kW wind and light base projects to be completed and put into operation as soon as possible, and accelerated the organization of the second batch of base projects.
coal rise
Do a good job in the price reform of coal
Coal stocks made a strong attack, with China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) leading the rise by more than 3%, followed by Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) .
According to the information on March 9 on the website of the national development and Reform Commission, in 2022, affected by many factors, the international energy supply situation is more severe and complex, energy prices are rising and reaching new highs. At the same time, China’s coal consumption is growing rapidly, forming a new challenge to maintaining the supply and price of coal.
The national development and Reform Commission has established the basic national conditions of coal, and recently held several special meetings on the inter ministerial coordination mechanism for the guarantee of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation. Focusing on the work of stabilizing and increasing coal production, the national development and Reform Commission has studied the extension of supply guarantee policies and other relevant measures with relevant member units and relevant regions, and further sorted out the coal mines with potential to increase production, We will explore new policies and measures to increase production and ensure supply.
In the next step, the national development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments, major coal producing areas and key enterprises to continue to strengthen work, improve the coal production, supply, storage and marketing system from the aspects of promoting formalities handling and strengthening emergency reserves, further release high-quality coal production capacity, strengthen coal production scheduling, and strive to stabilize the national daily coal output at more than 12 million tons to ensure reasonable production capacity Sufficient output, smooth transportation and sales, and safe supply.
