In 2021, the trend of folding screen mobile phones will rise again, and "folding" has almost become a necessary ability for mobile phone manufacturers.
Three years ago, Huawei and Samsung took the lead. Since this year, there have been five press conferences for leading enterprises:
In February, Huawei updated the mate series;
In March, Xiaomi launched mix fold;
In September, Samsung updated the fold series;
In December, oppo released the first folding screen mobile phone find n, and Huawei launched the first vertical folding screen mobile phone P50 pocket in 2022.
More new machines are on the line: the glory Magic V folding screen is planned to be released in January next year. Recently, the patent of Xiaomi vertical folding screen was exposed, and the relevant news of vivo was also frequent. It can be predicted that more forms and players will emerge in the folding machine market next year.
As a small emerging species, the folding screen has evolved and iterated in the controversy, but this year's new round of advancement is different from previous years. In addition to the breakthrough of hardware structure, there have also been industrial changes.
An important signal is that the mobile phone giants have made clear the investment in folding screen, and apple is also considering entering the game. According to the latest forecast of Guo Mingyu, an analyst at Tianfeng international, the first apple folding screen mobile phone will come out in 2023. Apple is ready to increase the shipment of its first folding screen iPhone to 20 million units. Apple will not aim at a small market.
On the other hand, the growth in sales of folding screen mobile phones has pushed back the innovation of the supply chain, Chen Jun, deputy general manager and chief analyst of sigmaintell, told reporters: "now the investment in the supply chain is very hot and the development speed is very fast. In three or five years, the mobile phones in your hands must be different forms. Next year, we predict that the folding will reach 5000 yuan, and the folding products will reach 3000 or even below 3000 in the next year and the next year."
With the joint efforts of the terminal and the supply chain, the folding screen species has gradually entered version 2.0. Whether the paradigm can be upgraded will be the next test.
5000 yuan folding screen asymptotic
Of course, the experience of folding screen mobile phones is not perfect. There are still shortcomings in mobile phone weight, battery life, screen creases and application ecology. Although the starting price has reached 7000 yuan, it is still prohibitive for most consumers. As the top representative of high-end mobile phones, the popularity of folding screens still needs time, but many potential users told reporters that 5000 yuan or the psychological price boundary line of buying folding screens.
According to analysts' forecasts, the price of folding screen mobile phones may break 5000 yuan next year, and the cost will continue to decline, which is closely related to the continuous growth of the supply chain and one of the important changes this year. After three years of development, the folding screen mobile phone is promoting the technical upgrading of the upstream and midstream supply chain, and gradually promoting the renewal of materials and other fields through market-oriented iteration, so as to reduce the cost of core devices.
Minsheng securities reported that the main technical directions to improve the use experience of folding screen mobile phones include hinge technology, screen technology, weight, endurance capacity, application interaction design, etc. at the same time, the improvement of industrial chain accessories capacity is also the key to supply and cost reduction, including UTG glass original / deep processing capacity, flexible OLED capacity, etc.
Taking the screen protective layer material of folding screen mobile phone as an example, it is undergoing iteration. Previously, it was mainly CPI, but now UTG (ultra thin glass) enters the supply chain. The original "gold film" CPI (transparent polyimide with good bending resistance) began to turn to UTG because of its low hardness and the problem of crease can not be solved.
"From the perspective of the cost of folding mobile phones, including the screen, UTG cover plate and hinge, especially the hinge. Next year, more cost reduction comes from the gradual maturity of the local supply chain. Many local UTG and hinge manufacturers will gradually mass produce in the second half of this year or next year, which will be an important driving force for the reduction of the cost of folding products, and the supply chain will be more mature." Chen Jun analyzed to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
For example, saide semiconductor, Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Huijing display, Tunghsu Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(000413) , Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) and other manufacturers have announced the R & D progress or plan of UTG glass project; In terms of rotating shaft, the process is complex, and it needs to bear tens of thousands of bends. MIM (metal injection molding process) process is required. Companies such as Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) , Nbtm New Materials Group Co.Ltd(600114) have layout.
At present, the global production and sales of folding screen mobile phones are still at the level of millions, but it has driven the evolution of materials and processes upstream of the flexible industrial chain. Although this new species of folding screen mobile phone is still relatively fragile, with the innovation from generation to generation, there are still expectations for the future evolution direction.
the "tacit understanding" between mobile phone manufacturers and supply chain
At the same time, it is worth noting that we have successively launched folding screen products in just three years. Especially this year, mobile phone manufacturers have intensively released and cultivated the market, which is quite tacit. Perhaps the upstream and downstream consensus is to expand the folding screen industry chain together. At present, no manufacturer can win all the market share. In other words, terminal companies and suppliers are jointly exploring the upgrading of the mobile phone industry, which is more like an tacit collaboration to push through the old and bring forth the new.
Mobile phone manufacturers may need folding screen mobile phones to show their high-end strength, especially in the current fierce competition in the high-end market; At the same time, it can not be denied that the emergence of folding screen is a timely rain for the mobile phone industry, and there are innovations in hardware and application ecology.
In addition, it can not be ignored that, from the perspective of supply chain, the capacity of small and medium-sized OLEDs is in surplus, panel manufacturers also need more access to the sea, and folding screens are regarded as an important direction.
After the vigorous investment of flexible AMOLED production line in previous years, Chinese manufacturers have ushered in a mass production peak in recent two years. For example, BOE has deployed two 6th generation flexible AMOLED production lines in Chengdu and Mianyang, both of which have achieved mass production. On December 28, BOE officially announced the mass production of the 6th generation flexible AMOLED production line in Chongqing, and the output of the three lines will reach the second in the world.
TCL Huaxing's flexible amoledt4 production line in Wuhan has expired, has completed the construction of phase II and phase III, and is climbing the production capacity; At present Visionox Technology Inc(002387) has three AMOLED production lines, and the latest generation 6 flexible AMOLED production line in Hefei has also achieved mass production and delivery this year; Tianma's 6th generation flexible AMOLED production line project (tm18) is expected to realize product lighting in the first half of 2022, and TM17 flexible capacity has been released on a large scale.
"Basically, China basically had all the flexible OLED before 2021," said Chen Jun. "Now the flexible OLED of BOT factory, such as BOE, TCL Huaxing, Tianma and Visionox Technology Inc(002387) , has basically been mass produced. BOE is also supplying apple, and it represents the level of quality of Chinese OLED technology reaching a higher level. The proportion of shipments in Chinese mainland will gradually increase."
He further indicated that the mobile phone side will see that the overall size of the flexible OLED panel will be around 340 million this year, and that the next year is expected to be 420 million. Next year, the volume of flexible OLED produced in Chinese mainland will be around 37%-38%. OLED panels will be used more and more, and PCs will have many folding product plans. Folding is a general trend in the medium and long term. After 2025, it may be stretched or curled.
At present, in the smart phone industry, folding screen mobile phones are still a small type. Under the development and demand of the overall industrial chain, according to the prediction of Qunzhi consulting, the sales volume will double to more than 14 million next year. Judging from the growth trend and the rise of China's supply chain, the folding screen industry has entered a new stage. However, with the emergence of more products next year, it is still necessary to test how "rigid" the rigid demand of folding screen mobile phones is and how mature the supply chain can be.
(21st Century Business Herald)
