We classify the future energy development into three main lines, namely energy transformation, energy balance and energy security.
Take the downstream scenery operation as the spear to promote the energy transformation and upgrading under the background of carbon neutralization; At the same time, with the midstream power grid and energy storage as the shield, it will escort the development of new energy and realize the balance of energy generation and utilization. However, the overly radical new energy transformation strategy is difficult to ensure the stability of the overall power system. On the road of energy transformation and balanced development, we should be steady step by step, rely on the diversified power structure, and realize the “upgrading and shifting” of energy on the premise of ensuring energy security. Based on these three main lines, the energy reform will be carried out in turn, and the corresponding investment opportunities will be explored.
Under the dual carbon goal, the energy transformation has been deepened. In order to achieve the great goal of carbon neutralization, the importance of power emission reduction is becoming more and more prominent, and the transformation and upgrading of the corresponding power structure is also imperative.
With the important marginal improvement of the volume and price factors in the new energy power generation industry and the continuous catalysis of the external environment, the subsequent scenery operators are expected to become the main new force to promote the energy transformation. New energy operators will play a leading role in energy transformation in the future.
Energy balance provides practical guarantee for energy transformation. Energy transformation means breaking the traditional energy system with thermal power as the hub, and gradually establishing a power system suitable for the development of new energy. Under the background of the rapid development of wind and solar energy, the high proportion of new energy grid connection poses a great challenge to the power system. Power grid, energy storage and flexibility transformation will be the three important measures to balance energy and escort the continuous penetration of new energy.
The cornerstone of energy security is unshakable. This year, the European energy crisis has been fermenting, and the “great leap forward” new energy development model has been challenged, and the EU’s high dependence on foreign energy has exacerbated its own energy security problems. Energy transformation and upgrading can not be achieved overnight. Although energy storage and power grid can escort the construction of new power system, too radical new energy transformation strategy is difficult to ensure the stability of the overall power system. We believe that on the road of energy transformation and balanced development, we should be steady step by step, rely on the diversified power structure, and realize the “upgrading and shifting” of energy on the premise of ensuring energy security.
Investment advice In the process of energy transformation, new energy operators are expected to take the lead and take the lead in energy transformation. It is suggested to pay attention to new energy operators Longyuan Power, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) .
In terms of energy balance, energy storage, thermal power flexibility and power grid will be the three main directions to balance energy. In terms of energy storage, it is suggested to pay attention to the construction of pumped storage projects Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ; In terms of power flexibility transformation, it is suggested to pay attention to the Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) of actively layout coal power transformation business; It is recommended to pay attention to UHV equipment faucets Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Henan Pinggao Electric Co.Ltd(600312) at the power grid end, and Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) in smart grid construction.
Energy security requires a diversified energy structure. The follow-up operation pressure of thermal power is expected to be gradually relieved. It is suggested to pay attention to China Resources Power, Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H), Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , etc. As an important supplement to the energy system, hydropower will play the role of “stabilizer” in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , etc. Nuclear power is also expected to usher in development again during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which will effectively support the power demand of eastern coastal provinces. It is suggested to pay attention to China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) .
Risk tips: the implementation of carbon neutralization policy is less than expected, the promotion of scenery is less than expected, the cost reduction of energy storage is less than expected, the risk of power grid construction is difficult to promote, the risk of coal price is difficult to fall, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, the risk of nuclear power safety, etc.
(Huachuang securities)
