key investment points:
1. In 2022, the economy will continue to improve, and the core logic will recover from the cycle to "reinforcing the chain";
2. Domestic substitution is accelerated, and the breakthrough of machine tools needs to be "point by area" one by one;
3. The downstream demand is strong, and the production capacity of CNC tools will continue to release in 2022 + the average price is expected to increase;
4. Building an industrial platform may realize "overtaking", and the objects favored by large funds will become the future wind vane;
financial Associated Press (Hangzhou, Changsha reporter Luo Yichen Yellow Road) for China, which is a big manufacturing country, the industrial mother machine of "national heavy weapon" is the foundation of industrialization and even intelligent manufacturing. The output value of China's machine tool industry is 100 billion in the morning, but it is "big but not strong", the NC rate is low, and the localization rate of medium and high-end products is low. However, this phenomenon has improved in 2021, and some innovative achievements have emerged in China's industrial mother machine industry, which has solved a number of "neck stuck" equipment problems. Driven by the policy, the "vertical and horizontal" trend of all parties has increased, and the prototype of industrial platform has begun to take shape.
As far as the capital market is concerned, the industrial machine is a hot spot in 2021. Since this year, the industrial machine industry has ushered in a new upward cycle, and the orders of many listed companies in the industrial chain have shown a blowout growth. The financial Associated Press reporter learned from a number of listed companies that there are abundant orders at present, and the production of large equipment may be scheduled to the first quarter of next year.
However, the development of industrial mother machine industry is also driven by manufacturing investment, and the risk of slowdown in investment growth still needs to be paid attention to. However, it is generally believed in the industry that the advantages of head enterprises will be expanded in this cycle.
For the future investment value of the industrial machine concept plate, a number of Companies in relevant industries said in an interview that with the improvement of China's manufacturing level, China's medium and high-end manufacturing industry is inseparable from industrial machines. Extending the cycle to a few years or even longer is similar to the development logic of the "chip" industry. To be independent and controllable, there is a lot of room for domestic substitution.
However, some buyer institutions are still cautious about short-term industry valuation. They believe that the industry has the characteristics of high dispersion and high differentiation, and the slow change is the inherent characteristic of the industrial mother machine industry. Only a few companies that really have core technology are the objects worthy of long-term attention.
core logic: there are differences in the comprehensive recovery of the cycle, and the leading certainty is higher
"On August 19 this year, the SASAC compared industrial machine tools with high-end chips at a meeting, and put the importance of the former in the first place. This is only the beginning, (machine tools) The spring of manufacturing industry has begun, and more supporting policies are expected to be issued in the future. The replacement cycle of machine tools is generally 10 years. There has been an upward turning point since 2020. With the start of 3C and new energy vehicle consumption, the company has received several large orders this year. It is expected that the industry will still be in the boom cycle next year, "an insider of a listed company engaged in CNC machine tools told the financial associated press.
The concept of industrial machine tool is complex, which is generally divided into three main parts: machine tool, NC tool, NC system and parts. Galaxy Securities research report pointed out that in terms of industrial chain links, the domestic competitiveness is ranked as: CNC Tools > machine tool > CNC system and other core parts.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to November 2021, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 540000, with a year-on-year increase of 29.9% and 42.11% compared with the same period in 2019. The machine tool industry entered a stage of rapid development. In the first three quarters, a number of industrial machine related companies achieved rapid growth in performance, including Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) (601882. SH), Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) (300083. SZ), {688308. SH), Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) (688059. SH), and Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) (688558. SH), Bichamp Cutting Technology(Hunan) Co.Ltd(002843) (002843. SZ).
One of the machine tool leaders Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) recently said that it is predicted that the sales of general-purpose machine tools will maintain a growth rate of 5% in 2022, and the continued prosperity of the industry next year is also reflected in the contract liabilities of relevant companies; According to the third quarterly report of Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) 2021, the company's contract liabilities were 747 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.64%. Generally speaking, contract liabilities refer to advance receipts corresponding to orders in hand contracts.
The relevant person in charge of Hunan Yuhuan Cnc Machine Tool Co.Ltd(002903) (002903. SZ) told the financial associated press that with the arrival of the machine tool product replacement cycle and the upgrading of the application requirements of 5g applications for new consumer electronic materials and new process processing equipment, downstream customers will put forward higher requirements for the processing accuracy, equipment stability and automation of NC machine tool products. After the epidemic eased, the purchasing power recovered and the demand for 5g replacement was superimposed. The shipment of smart phones maintained a rapid growth. The company's CNC multi station polishing machine continued to obtain orders from customers in the industry. The company has a number of CNC grinding machines and grinding and polishing machines, which have been successfully replaced by imports.
The person in charge of Bichamp Cutting Technology(Hunan) Co.Ltd(002843) (002843. SZ) said that in recent years, he felt that the acceptance of "high quality and high price" by downstream customers had increased significantly, which was good for companies that attached importance to original R & D. the company's high-end saw blades were welcomed by the market and their performance was comparable to that of imported products from Europe and America. The increase in gross profit also provided a guarantee for increasing R & D investment and formed a virtuous circle.
Although the leading enterprises are optimistic about next year's expectations, it should be noted that the growth rate of major indicators of the industry has dropped recently. The financial Associated Press reporter learned from China Machine Tool Industry Association that from January to October this year, the year-on-year growth rate of the industry was high, but the growth rate of new orders continued to fall, and the growth of finished product inventory accelerated, indicating that the operation trend is slowing down. For the industry growth forecast next year, people from the association responded that they should wait until the annual data are released.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) analysts believe that the current market has differences on the machine tool industry and are worried that the slowdown of manufacturing growth will affect future industry orders. However, under the background of import substitution in the machine tool industry and the rapid rise of private leaders in the subdivided field, there will be differentiation. The leading companies have the ability to lock high-quality orders. Machine tools are a large industry with a scale of more than 200 billion and can breed large companies.
the acceleration of domestic substitution needs to break through one by one
As the core part of the concept of industrial mother machine, the machine tool industry has the largest scale, with an operating revenue of 708.22 billion yuan in 2020, and has also produced many large companies with annual revenue of billions. If we return to the long-term endogenous logic of the industry, many companies told the associated press that the development space mainly comes from the improvement of penetration and import substitution.
The financial Associated Press reporter learned from Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) (688305. SH) that the CNC rate of machine tools in China is more than 40%, mainly medium and low-end machines, with a small proportion of high-end products. Some high-end products such as five axis machine tools basically rely on imports.
It is understood that the five axis linkage CNC machine tool is mainly used for the processing of complex surfaces such as impellers, blades, crankshafts, marine propellers and steam turbine rotors. Driven by the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, the subdivision field of this key core component has attracted high attention at present. Zhejiang Rifa Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(002520) said that the five axis linkage machine tool is the growth point of the company's future performance. For whether the future growth rate of the subdivided products can outperform the basic market of the industry, relevant people of the company responded to the financial Associated Press reporter that more order data are needed to judge. Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607. SZ) also indicates that it has the production capacity of five axis linkage machine tools.
The relevant person in charge of Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) said that the technical level of the company's five axis linkage products can be comparable with foreign competitive products. The specific market sales level, and the situation of competition with competitors outside China exist. The company previously publicly said that since 2020, the order volume of the company's five axis machine tools has doubled, and the new orders this year still maintain a high growth rate.
The aforementioned Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) person said that the company mainly focuses on vertical machining centers, which are also the products with the largest demand at present, and horizontal and gantry are also shipped.
The market's attention to five axis linkage machine tools can reflect the importance of high-end domestic alternative logic from one side. The financial Associated Press reporter found that taking the product gross profit as the main reference index, Zhejiang Rifa Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(002520) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , the gross profit margin of machine tools is more than 30%, and the gross profit margins of Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) and Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) are slightly lower, also around 24%. If we change from the perspective of concentration improvement, the sales of machine tools in Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) and Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) of the top three revenue scales in the field of machine tools in 2020 will be 15657, 10586 and 2529 respectively.
The core components of CNC machine tools include CNC system, spindle components, turret components, tailstock components, guide rails, screw rods and bearings. Among them, the value of high-end CNC system accounts for about 20% - 40% of the cost of high-end CNC machine tools. Most of the core components are purchased from expensive imported products, resulting in low profit margin of the industry. The above people in the NC machine tool industry told the financial Associated Press, "if we can make or purchase domestic parts substitutes on the premise of maintaining accuracy, the profit level will increase significantly, but it will still take several years or more to fully approach and catch up with foreign products, and the technology accumulation will not be achieved overnight".
Prospects of CNC tools: the production capacity will continue to be released in 2022, and the average price is expected to increase
Cutting tools are "industrial teeth". Although the scale of the cutting tool industry is obviously lower than that of machine tools, its performance directly affects the workpiece quality and production efficiency, and belongs to "consumables", which is also a relatively competitive link of Chinese manufacturers.
At present, the scale of China's cutting tool market is about 40 billion yuan, and it is expected that the market scale will reach 55.7 billion yuan by 2026. The market competition pattern is scattered, and Cr5 is less than 10%; And more than 1 / 3 of the market is occupied by foreign brands, of which European and American manufacturers are the first echelon, and Japanese and Korean manufacturers are mostly in the second echelon. The main listed companies in China are China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co.Ltd(000657) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Est Tools Co.Ltd(300488) and Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools Co.Ltd(688028) .
Est Tools Co.Ltd(300488) the relevant person in charge told the financial associated press that China's cutting tool companies are quite different. The company mainly makes subdivided tracks and has many kinds of product lines. Its direct competitors are basically European and American manufacturers, as well as Japanese and Korean manufacturers benchmarked by Chinese peers. They mainly make large quantities of products, which basically have their own strengths.
"Cutting tools are the teeth of industry. Without good cutting tools, all kinds of machine tools can not play an effect. Cutting tools are also consumables. It is better to sell consumables than to sell printers. Moreover, the overall competitiveness of China's cutting tool industry is relatively strong. Head manufacturers have basically passed the stage of price competition, mainly based on product performance." The official added.
Under the influence of the epidemic, overseas tool production capacity is limited. According to the front-line investigation of the financial Associated Press, the performance of domestic tools such as Zhuzhou Diamond, Xiamen Jinlu, Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) has gradually improved, and the cost performance is in line with that of Japanese and Korean manufacturers. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) according to the analysis, in the long run, with the improvement of NC rate of machine tools, the tool leader focusing on the improvement of product power is expected to continue to benefit.
CNC cutting tools, the main listed companies are Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Est Tools Co.Ltd(300488) and Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools Co.Ltd(688028) . Among them, Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) and Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) are mainly engaged in cemented carbide cutting tools, and the track with the largest market scale among clamping cutting tools. High market attention Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) relevant people told the financial associated press that "at present, there is little gap between domestic knives and Japanese and Korean products, and it is expected to replace the same type of imported products at a faster speed in the future".
Industry analysts believe that the projects raised and invested by major listed companies are under construction. 2022 is a year of concentrated and large-scale domestic high-end blades, and the performance is expected to continue to maintain high growth. At present, domestic CNC blades are still dominated by medium and low-end ones. The average price of individual drill is about 12 yuan / piece, and the average price of Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) / Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) is 5-6 yuan / piece. In recent years, due to the influence of trade war, epidemic situation and other factors, the supply of imported brands has been blocked, which makes the high-end products of domestic blade manufacturers get the opportunity to test knives, and the high-end products are expected to be in large quantities next year.
According to the person in charge of relevant companies, Zhuzhou Diamond Cutting Tool Co., Ltd., its subsidiary, has a market share of more than 25% in China. Zhuzhou drilling company's products compete directly with Japanese and Korean enterprises to seize the share of Japan and Korea in this field. The production capacity of CNC blades planned in the 14th five year plan of the company hopes to double on the current basis to 150-200 million pieces. The time from capacity planning to production is generally 1-1.5 years.
Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) relevant people said that the demand for domestic tools mainly has two dimensions: increment and stock: on the one hand, the incremental demand is expanding due to the increment of machine tools, the improvement of NC rate of machine tools and the consumption increment of cemented carbide coated tools brought about by the application trend of alloy materials and composite difficult machining materials; On the other hand, the stock demand of cutting tools comes from the substitution of imported market share, the technological breakthrough and capacity improvement of domestic cutting tools, and the strength of replacing imported products is increasing. The advantages of high cost performance and local service will promote the rapid improvement of the stock market share of domestic cutting tools.
Some foreign and domestic enterprises of cutting tools have announced that they will gradually raise their prices (1% - 6%) from January 2022. Ping An Securities believes that at present, China's tool industry has ushered in an important opportunity period of domestic substitution: on the one hand, China's tool product technology has made continuous progress, and the product performance has directly caught up with Japanese and Korean brands; On the other hand, Japan, South Korea and China's cutting tool enterprises are dominated by distribution, and dealers have played an important role in the process of domestic substitution. In 2022, the prosperity has toughness, and the domestic substitution of cemented carbide tools is accelerated.
wind vane: the layout of large funds is accelerated, and there are many highlights in industry integration
After the national level proposed to overcome the problem of "neck sticking" and the concept of hot industrial machine, the national manufacturing fund (hereinafter referred to as the big fund) also reached cooperation intentions with a number of industrial chain companies this year. Whether the industrial master can copy the semiconductor development path has attracted attention from all walks of life, and the action of large fund has also been interpreted as a wind vane by the outside world.
The financial Associated Press reporter noted that three industry companies Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Zhejiang Rifa Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(002520) and Wuhan Huazhong Numerical Control Co.Ltd(300161) have been favored by large funds, which has attracted a number of investment institutions to conduct research. It is reported that the national manufacturing fund intends to focus on the upstream and downstream of the machine tool industry chain and select advantageous enterprises in core functional components, CNC systems, machine tools and downstream application links to carry out strategic investment.
Both Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) and Zhejiang Rifa Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(002520) are machine tool manufacturers, with a revenue of more than 1 billion in 2020. They have a certain scale advantage, and their performance has improved rapidly since this year. However, the domestic competitiveness of Wuhan Huazhong Numerical Control Co.Ltd(300161) CNC system is relatively weak, and the company's performance has not yet come out of the trough.
It is understood that the economic CNC system market is basically occupied by domestic products, but in the medium-range universal CNC system market, most of the market is occupied by imported products, while in the high-end CNC system market, especially in the aerospace field, the domestic gap is more obvious.
For the development prospect, Wuhan Huazhong Numerical Control Co.Ltd(300161) said that in the past two years, some Chinese machine tool plants have taken the initiative to find supporting companies, and enterprises are also aware that they must replace imports with domestic systems. Machine tool manufacturers take the initiative to find domestic CNC supporting facilities, which are more in strategic safety considerations, and the actual progress is not optimistic. In this context, large funds are expected to join. At present, large funds and industry companies are still in the stage of strategic cooperation, and the future substantive investment layout deserves close attention.
(Financial Associated Press)
