Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, the capital admission slows down and the market action can weaken. On the one hand, following the weakening of capital sentiment observed last week, the rhythm of capital and financing inflows to the North continued to slow down. At the same time, the holdings decreased by nearly 24 billion yuan last week, which also reached a new high in the year. There is indeed some pressure on the capital side; On the other hand, the A-wide rise and decline center has moved down, the market’s new high stocks continue to decline, the proportion of MACD vulnerable stocks has increased significantly, and the action can slow down on the whole. In addition, from the perspective of trading structure, the concentration of individual stocks continued to decline and repaired to below the 60% quantile line, but the trading differentiation of the industry increased significantly, mainly due to the continuous warming of the concept of meta universe and the obvious improvement of the turnover rate of green power sector.
1. Transaction structure tracking
1) Up and down differentiation level: the up and down Center has dropped in the past Sunday, and the 28 differentiation has increased.
The median daily increases and decreases of individual stocks in recent 5 days, 20 days and 60 days were – 0.36%, 0.02% and 0.01% respectively; The income of 28 fell to 22.02%, and the degree of transaction differentiation fell to 23.
2) Transaction concentration: the transaction concentration of individual stocks has decreased. The transaction proportion of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks changed by – 0.53%, – 1.9% and – 2.26% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 52.1%, 55.4% and 57.8% respectively. The overall transaction concentration of the industry has rebounded, of which the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries has changed by 0.17%, 0.34% and 0.36% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 1.5%, 6.8% and 15.2% respectively.
3) Trading differentiation level: the trading differentiation level of individual stocks has declined. The trading differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks have changed by – 5.34%, – 0.29% and – 0.39% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 83%, 86.4% and 81% respectively. The level of industry transaction differentiation has rebounded. The top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industry transaction differentiation coefficients have changed by 6.1%, 2.2% and 1.41% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 65.5%, 72.8% and 73.3% respectively.
2. Market sentiment tracking
1) The 10 day moving average of the price limit ratio of all a fell to 5.09, and the turnover rate of all a rose to 7.51%.
2) The VIX Index fell 2.88 month on month to 17.96 3) The number of all a’s new highs and new lows rebounded month on month: the 60 day high 10 day moving average rose to 279 and the new low 10 day moving average rose to 56; The record high 10 day moving average rose to 24 and the record low 10 day moving average rose to 2.4). The number of dominant stocks fell. The proportion of stocks above the 60 day moving average fell month on month, hitting a record high in recent January, and the number of stocks fell to 61.10% and 210.5 respectively). The proportion of MACD strong stocks in the whole a market fell to 34.89% and the proportion of weak stocks rose to 21.21%. 6) All a leveraged funds sentiment fell to 27.37%. 7) The net inflow of foreign capital trading ma30 rebounded to 803 million yuan.
3. Micro liquidity tracking
1) Monetary tightness: the net monetary investment is 50 billion yuan, the short-term interest rate is down, the Shibor of each period has rebounded as a whole, the interest rate of treasury bonds has rebounded, the credit spread of each period has rebounded, and the RMB has appreciated.
2) Capital supply: the newly issued scale of partial equity funds was about RMB 4.306 billion, the share of ETF increased by 10.375 billion month on month, the net outflow of funds going north was RMB 1.221 billion, and the financing balance decreased by RMB 9.571 billion month on month.
3) Capital demand: last week, there were 13 new IPOs, the initial financing scale was 21.031 billion yuan, and the reduction of industrial capital was about 23.942 billion yuan, with a fixed increase. In addition, the lifting pressure picked up month on month this week, with the lifting scale of about 100.485 billion yuan.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Macroeconomic fluctuation exceeding expectations; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
(Guosheng securities)
