In November, pork prices rebounded and CPI rose year-on-year. In November, China’s CPI was + 2.3% year-on-year, of which food items were + 1.6% year-on-year and pork in food was – 32.7% year-on-year. CPI in November was + 0.4% month on month. During this period, pork prices were in the rebound range, affecting CPI pork chain + 12.2%. In November, China’s Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) import amount was US $18.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 24.32%, the export amount was US $8.444 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 12.85%, and the trade deficit was US $10.416 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 35.48%.
In December, pig prices fluctuated downward and remained profitable at the monthly level. According to China animal husbandry information network, on December 24, the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities across the country was 15.99 yuan / kg, down – 3.09% from last week. From the supply side, according to the public data, it is speculated that the number of fertile sows at the end of October was 43.48 million, with a month on month ratio of – 2.49%, a year-on-year increase of + 10.08%, and the production capacity was accelerated. From the demand side, the demand for bacon production was basically released in the fourth quarter, and the consumption demand on holidays may still be partially driven, but the expectation should not be too high. From the perspective of feed, the national pig feed output in November was 11.41 million tons, with a month on month increase of + 4.6%, indicating that the short-term supply side increased. Recently, the epidemic situation has increased in some areas, and the proportion of pigs below 90kg has increased significantly. According to the Yongyi data, the proportion was 10.53% on December 23, with a week on week ratio of + 1.24pct. On the whole, we believe that the pig price in January was high before and low after. It is recommended to continuously track the demand side changes and the occurrence of the epidemic.
The price of yellow chicken fluctuated at a high level, and the production capacity was accelerated to be cleared. According to the data of xinmu.com, the average price of yellow chicken was 7.49 yuan / kg on December 24, a month on month increase of + 1.08% at the end of November. At present, it is in a high shock state.
Based on the analysis of the stock of Huangji’s grandparents, parents and prices, we believe that the current stock of parents is close to the 18-year average and is in the process of accelerating clearing, and it is expected that the current production capacity of 22h2 will be at an inflection point.
At the level of breeding cost, the prices of raw materials such as corn and soybean meal are high. It is expected that the high cost end will be stable in 22 years, the price will rise due to the superposition of the decline of production capacity, and the performance of breeding enterprises can be improved.
Since the beginning of the year, the performance of the sector is weaker than that of the CSI 300, and the forestry performance is better. From the beginning of the year to December 28, the overall performance of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector was – 2.5%, and the CSI 300 increased by 7.96% in the same period. Among the sub industries, livestock and poultry breeding decreased the most (- 13.56%), followed by feed and planting, with – 6.76% and – 4.54% respectively; Forestry and agriculture were the top two sub industries, with increases of 10.43% and 10.03% respectively.
It is suggested that the optimal time interval is to lay out breeding stocks during the breeding loss period, followed by the time interval before the second bottom (expected 22q1). It is suggested to actively pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) . Benefiting from the rising price of yellow chicken, the industry leader has something remarkable. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) . Considering the accelerated promotion of policies related to genetically modified seeds, it is suggested to pay attention to Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) leaders in the seed industry with R & D strength. The feed industry is in the stage of concentration improvement. Leading enterprises have the advantages of supply chain, realize the increase of market share, and actively pay attention to Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
( China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities)
