Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell at the same time, which is rare in history!
today, the weak characteristics of the market are obvious. The performance of individual stocks is also worrying, not to mention the decline of several major indexes. The market showed a pattern of rising less and falling more. Among them, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell by 4.54%, and the market value evaporated by more than 100 billion yuan; The limit of Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) leading stocks of traditional Chinese medicine is also very rare. The usual “ningmao” rocker effect also failed today, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) also closed down 1.62%.
What the hell happened? Chinese journalists from China Securities Dealers learned from some market participants that emotional panic caused by Baijiu may be the main reason. There are three hearsay rumors about Baijiu itself.
First, it was suggested that a proposal be made during the two sessions: to levy a luxury consumption tax on Maotai with reference to the cigarette tax rate;
Second, it is reported from the market that the consumption tax reform is about to be launched. At the same time, it is also reported that the consumption tax reform will be carried out simultaneously with the price increase in Maotai;
Three, the Baijiu liquor and Penghua liquor two largest liquor index fund dividends.
So, how big will the impact be? Recently, the market has been in a downturn. Is the market beyond the end of the year out of expectation?
giants fell
today, Baijiu has become a disaster area, just like yesterday’s hydrogen energy, the lithium batteries before, the high plate seems to be unable to escape the fate of being abandoned. CSI Baijiu index fell more than 5%.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell sharply by 4.54%, and the market value evaporated by more than 100 billion yuan. It is worth noting that there is another news on the market today: Maotai will hold a new product launch on the evening of the 29th, and a new and upgraded version of Maotai wine (treasure) will appear. It is reported that Maotai will release new Maotai liquor at the end of 2021. The launch conference of the new and upgraded 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (rare) will be held in the “source of Maotai liquor” of the industrial site complex of Maotai distillery on the evening of December 29 with the brand slogan of “Baifu Youzhen, a rare brew”. Logically, this should be good news.
More noteworthy is the limit of Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) . The stock fell in large quantities and closed the limit in the afternoon, with a turnover of 3.82 billion yuan. Historically, Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) there are few scenes of falling limit.
Recently, many high-level stocks have experienced inexplicable decline, such as yesterday’s Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and other stocks. On the one hand, the market is afraid of high, on the other hand, there is also the power of profit taking. Therefore, killing high positions has become a major rhythm of the recent market.
three bad rumors
today’s decline may also be caused by some bad news.
first, the market suddenly heard that it was suggested that the two sessions proposed to “levy a luxury tax on Maotai”. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) since it is a luxury, not a basic consumer goods, nor a consumer necessity for people’s livelihood, we should completely liberalize the market and price, and the state should levy the same consumption tax as 60% tobacco tax, so that luxury consumers can pay more taxes. By raising the consumption tax rate of Maotai to the level of cigarettes, we can liberalize the sales and prices of Maotai, abolish distribution channels, unified pricing and sales quotas. All tobacco and liquor stores can purchase and sell at their own prices. Let Maotai return to the market, so as to benefit the country and the people. The market believes that if Maotai imposes a luxury tax, it may trigger a series of high-end consumption to follow suit, Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) is also one of them.
secondly, it is reported from the market that the consumption tax reform is about to be launched. At the same time, it is also reported that the consumption tax reform will be carried out simultaneously with the price increase in Maotai. the reform of consumption tax has been brewing for a long time. China’s consumption tax is mainly levied on specific commodities, accounting for about 8% of tax revenue. While raising fiscal revenue, it can restrain the consumption of specific commodities and adjust income distribution. In September 2019, the State Council issued the plan for adjusting the reform of the central and local incomes division after the implementation of a larger scale of tax reduction and fee reduction, and put forward the “link of the later consumption tax collection and steadily delimitation the place”.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that since the commodity prices in wholesale and retail links are usually higher than the ex factory price, moving the tax collection link backward means that the tax base of consumption tax is increased, and then the amount of consumption tax is increased, but the overall tax burden should not change greatly. More interesting is that every time a consumer tax is passed, the Baijiu plate will surely fall sharply.
third, dividends. Baijiu liquor and Penghua liquor index of the two major wine dividends. Industry insiders believe that the problem is not that the fund reduces its positions and prepares dividends, but that the interpretation of the market is too worried. Some professionals interpret it this way: in fact, when the dividend was announced, the positions to be distributed had been sold in advance. Therefore, it will not directly impact the market. Today, it is more emotional. Of course, if there is an expectation of pressure drop scale, the trend is not optimistic in the short term or even the medium term.
is the cross year market still there?
after entering December, there was an obvious feature in the market: Although there were many hot spots, the sustainability was very poor; Although most individual stocks still rose, they fell more frightening; Although there are many stocks on the daily trading board, demon stocks account for the majority. The result of these characteristics is that the money making effect is far less prominent than expected. So, does the cross year market still exist? Some funders believe that expectations can be lowered.
first of all, from the psychological point of view of investors, they generally invest with reference to the market in the same period last year. the money making effect in December 2020 is not good. In addition, Baijiu and other markets in January will be the most extreme, but after the Spring Festival, the market suddenly fell. If we refer to this market, investors’ enthusiasm for participation may decline significantly in January next year. If there is no significant positive stimulus in the market, the operation may be more difficult.
Secondly, by 2021, the A-share market has risen for three consecutive years. during this period, Baijiu, semiconductors, biological medicine, electric vehicles, lithium mines, rare earth, hydrogen, and even financial stocks continued to move, and we can say that there has been a good wave of gains. This is obviously a bull market, but its characteristics are somewhat different from the overall bull market. When such a bull market reaches its current position, the market may tend to think that there is a need for rest in terms of time and plate kinetic energy.
third, at this time point, in fact, many things are not fresh in the eyes of the public. Whether it is technological innovation, conceptual innovation or model innovation, its marginal impact seems to be getting weaker and weaker. for the capital market, freshness is always the most vitality. However, there is an extreme lack of “freshness”. At such a moment, in fact, the market also needs precipitation and accumulation. Perhaps, there is no need to dwell on the time node of the new year.
(brokerage China)
