On December 15, the leading innovator Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) suddenly fell by the limit in large quantities, and the share price fell below the annual line, which led to the collective decline of the whole innovator sector. In December 16th, the liquor stock Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) dropped 6%, which also led to the collective drop of Baijiu baijiu.
Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) dived successively. On the surface, they were affected by bad rumors, but behind them, there was a massive withdrawal of funds to the north. As a loyal fan of medicine and Baijiu, the attitude towards north capital seems to be changing.
At the end of the year, Baijiu and medicine in the A share market have become the focus of the market again. In 2021, all the theme funds investing in these two tracks fell into adjustment. Many top flow fund managers with unlimited scenery in 2020 have significantly withdrawn their products in 2021.
Baijiu down “throne”
In 2019 and 2020, the Baijiu market is the king of the A share market. Taking Maotai as an example, the share price rose 112% in 2019 and 72% in 2020. At the beginning of 2021, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) stock price once rose to a historical high of 2608.59 yuan. However, Baijiu Baijiu group has fallen sharply after the Spring Festival, and liquor theme fund and Baijiu fund managers have been walking down the throne. In the past year, people often asked whether Baijiu shares were good enough.
In fact, compared with the Chinese stock market, the education sector and the Internet sector, Baijiu 2021’s decline is not the biggest, but the market differentiation is very big. For example, Maotai has been rising since 2021. At the end of the year, the share price returned to above 2000 yuan, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) increased by more than 10%, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) increased by 57%, and the cumulative increase of Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) was as high as 180%. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) fell by 18%, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) fell by nearly 25%, and Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) fell by as much as 48%.
The reason is that the Baijiu fund is a big pit in the fund market in 2021. The main reason is that the funds in 2019 and 2020 were so good that the funds in the end of 2020 and early 2021 attracted too many people to participate in the fund, creating a large scale top fund, such as the Baijiu liquor index fund, Yi Fangda blue chip selection, and the emerging growth of the Great Wall.
Although the overall loss proportion of these funds may not be large in 2021, due to their huge volume, the impact and pain caused by a slight fall are much greater than those of other funds.
The daily economic news reporter has counted the size of Baijiu theme fund through Wind system, and the proportion of Baijiu holding liquor in such fund positions is relatively high. Among them, over 10 billion yuan or more funds are over 20, and the largest Baijiu Baijiu (liquor fund LOF) has reached 84 billion 200 million yuan at the end of the three quarter, and the number of holders is more than 10 million (up to June 30th).
In February 18, 2021, the Baijiu fund LOF rose to 1.626 yuan, the lowest in March 9th, and the biggest drop was 34%. 1.073. From March 9 to June 8, the fund rose from 1.073 yuan to 1.638 yuan, a new high. Since then, it fell from 1.638 yuan to 1.118 yuan, with a fluctuation range of 31.7%. The withdrawal of more than 30% twice a year is undoubtedly a pain for fund investors.
In fact, the investment in the liquor fund of Zhong Zheng Baijiu is pretty good. In 2021, it was profitable. Other super large Baijiu theme fund was not too optimistic. For example, as of December 16, the selected scale of e fund blue chip managed by Zhang Kun had reached 69.8 billion yuan, with a loss of about 7% since 2021; The emerging growth scale of Jingshun Great Wall managed by Liu Yanchun reached 54.2 billion yuan, a loss of 8.6%; The scale of e-fonda consumer industry managed by Xiao Nan was nearly 30 billion yuan, with a loss of about 10%. In addition, the scale of Penghua ingenuity managed by top flow fund manager Wang Zonghe also exceeded 10 billion yuan, a loss of 17%.
Baijiu stock market behind the rise in fact, after two consecutive years of inflation, stock prices have overdrawn performance growth. Maotai’s performance growth has fallen back to single digits, but the P / E ratio was as high as 60 times and 80 times. In early 2021, too many people and too much money poured into the Baijiu industry, which led to the congestion of transactions. In this case, the regression of valuation became an inevitable trend. In addition, the shrinking consumption and the tightening of market regulation are also important factors leading to the slow pace of expansion of Baijiu shares.
medicine can’t hurt
In fact, many funds that favor Baijiu shares also love to buy Pharmaceutical stocks. The market often says that the A share market is “drinking and taking medicine” market. For example, the Baijiu rich theme of Jiao Wei manages 24 billion 400 million yuan, and it has lost 1% since 2021. Another product of Jiao Wei’s management is Yinhua Fuli, whose size is 4 billion 100 million yuan, and it has lost 12% since 2021. He managed the products in two directions, one is Baijiu and the other is innovative medicine. From his list of heavily held stocks, it is not difficult to find that Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Maotai, Fenjiu, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) and other old white horse stocks are his favorites.
In addition, there are thematic funds dedicated to investing in medicine, which can’t afford to hurt. Gran, known as the goddess of medicine, is a top-level fund manager with a total scale of 97 billion yuan. However, among the funds she manages, only China Europe Mingrui new starting point betting on the new energy track has earned 18% since 2021, and the other two funds betting on the medical track have performed mediocrely. Among them, China EU healthcare fell 5%, and China EU healthcare innovation fell 6.6%.
Of course, it is not just Glenn’s fund that has performed badly. For example, southern pharmaceutical innovation, established in March 2021, has fallen by 23.72% since 2021 (as of December 20). Minsheng Jiayin pharmaceutical health, e-fonda pharmaceutical biology, Qianhai Kaiyuan medical health, etc., have all fallen by more than 20%.
In 2021, whether Baijiu or medicine, there was a general adjustment. Can these two plates rise again in 2022? In fact, Baijiu is still subject to shrinking consumption, but Baijiu itself has the expectation of raising prices. Baijiu Baijiu can not Baiqi recover, and only rely on raising prices, it is difficult to maintain the valuation of the current liquor stocks. The main body’s funds also need to wait for the performance of the liquor companies to be clear. Therefore, Baijiu and Baijiu thematic funds may wait for the first quarter of 2022, and wait for the relevant companies’ annual reports to be clear.
Innovative drugs and medical devices are still difficult to see signs of improvement. Take Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) as an example, it has been continuously sold by northward funds since mid December. Of course, the pharmaceutical field is not completely without opportunities. In the market in 2021, there are also pharmaceutical theme funds with good performance. For example, Qianhai Kaiyuan research and selection of traditional Chinese medicine, as of December 17, 2021, the return has reached 20% since 2021. It is a rare pharmaceutical fund with good performance. The heavyweight stocks of the fund are leading traditional Chinese medicine companies in the two cities.
The demand side supports the healthy and steady growth of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the policy side, the state vigorously supports and promotes the development of traditional Chinese medicine. On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry walked out of the low point and showed marginal improvement. On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has obvious absolute valuation advantages. “Policy + consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantages” jointly build investment opportunities in the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
(Daily Economic News)
