The shock market in 2021 has come to an end.
Under the differentiation of market structure. Compared with 2020, the annual income of public funds decreased significantly, while typical industries such as new energy still showed a structural bull market, and the income of relevant funds also ranked high.
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, how institutions view the trend of A-share market in 2022 has become the focus of the market.
Recently, the investment strategies of many securities companies and public funds in 2022 have been released one after another. The 21st Century Business Herald reporter found that many institutions expect that the A-share market will still be a volatile market in 2022, there are structural opportunities, and the new energy sector is still the focus of attention widely mentioned.
the shock pattern of A-Shares continues
On the whole, institutions generally believe that the A-share market will remain volatile in 2022.
"Earnings are down, residual liquidity is up, and risk appetite is stable. It is expected to show a volatile trend in 2022." Huaxia Fund said.
ICBC Credit Suisse fund also believes that A-Shares will be in a downward profit period in 2022, and it is difficult for the index to have a large performance.
According to the analysis of Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , the index will fluctuate weakly in 2022, and the market may follow the policy fluctuations, showing a trend of high before low. However, considering that the policy may be advanced, the market agitation in the fourth quarter and around the Spring Festival next year is still worth grasping.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) also pointed out that the trend of the market in 2022 is to improve first and then restrain, and the fluctuation range is much higher than that in 2021. The structural market is dominated and the system market is supplemented, the theme in the first quarter is dominated and the blue chip is supplemented, the theme in the second quarter is dominated and the theme is depressed, and the opportunity in the second half of the year is low.
Although the market may still remain volatile, many institutions have also mentioned structural opportunities that cannot be ignored.
ICBC Credit Suisse Fund pointed out that the market will be dominated by structural opportunities in 2022, so the boom trend and dilemma repair are still the main investment determinants within the one-year dimension.
Haifutong fund also believes that in 2022, the A-share market will maintain the trend of top and bottom, and there are still many structural opportunities worthy of in-depth exploration.
"The general environment of weakening macroeconomic stability and loosening policy stability is conducive to the performance of sectors with high growth certainty and good sustainability. China's economic policy supports scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading very clearly: under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, investment in new energy related manufacturing industries such as wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage and power grid construction will maintain rapid growth and sustained prosperity To be good; Under the promotion of multiple factors such as accelerating domestic substitution and boosting demand, manufacturing investment in high-tech directions such as intelligent manufacturing, high-end equipment, electronic information, specialization and innovation is also expected to achieve rapid growth. " Haifutong Fund pointed out.
"The structural market may continue in 2022, and it is expected that the industries with good prosperity will decrease compared with this year. For example, coal, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and other industries will perform well this year. However, the performance of the above industries may be relatively weaker than this year next year. Under the environment that the industries with good prosperity may decrease, the structural market may be more obvious next year." Han Guangzhe, executive general manager of Equity Investment Department of golden eagle fund, said.
For the risk factors that need attention, Han Guangzhe pointed out that the core factors affecting the market next year still depend on the economic policy arrangements, including fiscal, monetary, reserve requirement reduction, interest rate reduction, etc. Major risks include unexpected external events and further decline of China's economy.
focus on new energy
Specific to the industry sector, many institutions have clearly expressed concern about the new energy related industrial chain.
It is worth mentioning that the new energy sector has been on fire for two years. Continuing the increase of 63.29% in 2020, as of December 24, 2021, the new energy vehicle index rose again by 39.61%.
"Next year, the market liquidity may be in a relatively loose state, which will be conducive to the performance of growth stocks." Liu Weiwei, fund manager of China Europe Fund, believes that. In terms of specific industry prospects, Liu Weiwei is optimistic about high-end manufacturing opportunities such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, military industry and semiconductors.
Huaxia Fund is also optimistic about growth stocks. According to its analysis, after the second quarter of next year, the matching degree of boom valuation order will rise. With the cooperation of relatively loose residual liquidity, the growth and stable growth style will dominate again.
Specifically, Huaxia Fund focuses on the direction of high growth expected next year and relatively limited valuation expansion in the past two years, including the new energy industry. In addition, it also mentions the military industry, computer, food and beverage, pharmaceutical industry, etc.
Boshi fund also takes new energy as an important industry allocation. Boshi Fund believes that the structural "wide credit" in 2022 will benefit from "double carbon", including new energy, energy storage, power grid, etc.
"From the perspective of industrial development, we are going through the process of transformation from real estate cycle to green power cycle. This year may be called the first year of the green power cycle. Before, when the market mentioned new energy, people thought of electric vehicles or photovoltaic. We should think about the national '3060' strategy from a higher perspective. For example, in" carbon peak " "In the context of, the new capacity of high energy consuming industries will be effectively controlled in 2021. In the future, such as the transformation of power grid, the establishment of energy storage links, and the application of energy conservation and emission reduction technologies in various energy consuming industries can be included in our research." GF multi factor fund manager Tang Xiaobin believes.
From the perspective of the seller's organization, new energy has also been mentioned by many organizations.
For example, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) it is suggested that investors should pay attention to the main line of growth stocks in the next 3-6 months, including high boom and competitive manufacturing growth tracks in China, such as new energy vehicle industry chain, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors.
In addition, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and other institutions mentioned the main investment line in 2022, including new energy vehicles, green energy, energy storage, photovoltaic, etc.
In addition to new energy, fund managers also raised concerns about the consumer sector.
Cheng Yuxuan, fund manager of China Europe Fund, believes that after recent adjustments, there has been a correction and valuation digestion in the consumer and consumer technology industries, in which the long-term allocation value of high-quality enterprises is gradually emerging.
"In the next one to two years, generally speaking, the economy will rise and consumption will rise. In fact, those traditional white horse stocks must be related to the macro economy. So large companies cannot be unaffected when the macro economy goes wrong. When the economy goes down, they will be under great pressure. If the economy goes up, their opportunities will slowly rise. Conclusion The investment method of Hejing bearing will still focus on consumption and science and technology next year. Compared with this year, we may pay more attention to consumer stocks next year. " Yinhua Fund Manager Li Xiaoxing said.
(21st Century Business Herald)
