Looking back on Tuesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, fluctuated at the beginning of the session, and then both fell, especially the accelerated diving of the Shanghai index. With the relative strength of subject stocks, the gem index and Shenzhen composite index were more resistant to decline; In the afternoon, after the index bottomed out and turned red smoothly, the stock index continued to rise in the late afternoon.
As mentioned in Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , on Tuesday, the A-share market was first restrained and then raised, with a slight shock rise. The mainstream sector led the rise again, the defense sector fell slightly, and the market hot spots continued to show the characteristics of frequent conversion. due to the lack of sustainable leading hot spots in the current market, and the approach of the end of the year, all parties in the market have a heavy mentality of holding money and waiting. Some active funds are actively looking for new hot spots that may appear after new year’s day. It is expected that there is a greater possibility of small short-term consolidation of the Shanghai index and a greater possibility of small short-term shock in the gem. It is suggested that investors should wait and see for a short time, and the middle line should continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that in the stock market game, the rotation rhythm is accelerating . The previous strong hydrogen energy made up for the decline in the day, which is in sharp contrast to the recovery of lithium ore in the day. The market profit-making effect is gradually shifting to the trend, so we can continue to pay attention to the direction of medicine and subdivided traditional Chinese medicine, wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy and other new energy tracks. In the rotating market, we should try to absorb as low as possible without chasing up.
Technically, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the index fluctuated upward on Tuesday, and the Shanghai index stood at the 20 day moving average. The volume and energy of the two cities expanded slightly and returned to the trillion level, with a small net inflow of funds to the north, boosting market confidence, it is expected that the market is expected to strengthen in repeated shocks, and pay attention to the volume and energy changes and plate rotation . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, medicine and biology, household appliances, building materials, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that the current medium-term fluctuation of the index remains unchanged, but the capital operation at the end of the year is cautious, the market sentiment tends to avoid risks, the plate rotation is more frequent, and the operation is more difficult . You can choose an appropriate amount of participation in some subject stocks, in the medium term, you still need to focus on listed companies whose annual reports exceed expectations.
In addition, Guosheng securities mentioned that near the end of the year, the current market is obviously low in avoiding high sentiment , and the plates with large increase in the early stage have ushered in adjustment one after another, mainly due to the large uncertainty of market liquidity at the end of the year and the lack of volume and energy due to only one trading day of northbound funds this week. In terms of operation, we should pay more attention to the direction of high performance growth in the coming year in the future. At present, the adjustment range of this round of boom track is greater than 15%. As the direction of sustained boom in the coming year, we can pay more attention gradually; In addition, the overall A profit growth rate decreased in 2022 or larger. Baijiu and the selected food sector with stable growth can also be concerned.
Macroscopically, Wanlian Securities believes that investors’ expectations for further easing of monetary policy are heating up, which is good for the liquidity of A-share market and may boost trading sentiment at the same time. In terms of industry configuration: 1) it is recommended to pay attention to the bottom rebound of prosperity and mandatory consumption with strong risk aversion attribute; 2) Banks and securities companies benefiting from the expectation of monetary easing undervalued blue chip sector ; 3) The demand for “steady growth” has been strengthened. In 2022, the amount of special bonds will be approved in advance, and can focus on the infrastructure sector .
Wanhe Securities pointed out that the risk of A-share investment in 2022 is greater than the opportunity. It is suggested that investors reduce their income expectations and actively look for structural opportunities. In terms of timing, in the second half of 2022, when the external Federal Reserve ends its table expansion, interest rate hike boots and other uncertain factors, if China’s economy shows signs of improvement, A-Shares will begin to usher in a new round of medium and long-term investment opportunities .
In terms of operational strategy, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) said that under the high-quality development, medium and long-term opportunities in China’s capital market are highlighting. High quality development may bring the following opportunities: (1) energy revolution: long low-carbon slope and thick snow; (2) Efficiency improvement: the digital wave has arrived; (3) Market transformation: from localization to globalization; (4) Income distribution: common prosperity is the general trend; (5) People oriented: meet diversified consumption needs .
Caixin Securities pointed out that the A-share market is optimistic about the following four sectors in turn: (1) the sector with booming production and marketing . In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (2) new energy and other track stocks . In 2022, new energy track stocks still have the opportunity to obtain excess returns, but it is expected that the differentiation will intensify, the stocks with proven performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected; (3) downstream consumption sector . The scissors gap between China’s PPI and CPI is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of 2022. We can pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliance industries; (4) epidemic damaged plate . In 2022, as the global epidemic is gradually controlled, there is a momentum for valuation and repair in the epidemic damaged plate, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airport, tourism, hotel, cinema, etc.
For next year’s operation direction, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) puts forward one of the core configuration ideas: hard technology track . First, it is difficult to win, and it is necessary to further tap small and medium-sized companies in the track with good industrial trend; Second, the price rise is difficult to continue. More pure quantity logic (without price change driving) is recommended. Quantity logic focuses on military industry, new energy vehicles (batteries, parts, electronics and complete vehicles), large new energy bases (wind, light, storage and operators) and semiconductors (equipment and materials).
In addition, if there is no industry level lower than expected, the periodic adjustment of the boom track is generally 15%. At present, it is at the lower edge of the adjustment. It is expected that the agitation in the spring of 2022 may still be the core attack direction.
Core configuration idea 2: recommend dilemma reversal direction that does not depend on policies, such as the necessary food for cost dilemma reversal (ppi-cpi inflection point), pork for price dilemma reversal, and traditional cars and parts for inventory cycle dilemma reversal.
In addition, a new main line that needs attention in 2022. The application end of 5g may include new infrastructure such as yuancosmos, Internet of vehicles, energy Internet of things, industrial Internet of things and so on.
