Caught off guard, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . SH) suddenly disclosed the main business data from January to February 2022 on March 7.
This is the first time in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) history that monthly operation data is released. Once the announcement breaking the convention was released, it immediately attracted close attention from the market.
For the whole Baijiu sector, this is also the first positive news in 2022. Can this unexpected business data become the "reassurance" of the whole sector?
1-february performance exceeded expectations
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) said in the announcement that during the Spring Festival in 2022, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) products had a good sales momentum, the market showed a strong sales trend, and successfully achieved a "good start".
"According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year." Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) scale.
This operating data exceeded market expectations. Previously, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) and other institutions predicted that the growth rate of Maotai was about 15%.
Although only the operating data of the first two months were released this time, considering the performance structure of the first quarter, this higher than expected operating data has basically announced that the growth rate of Maotai in the first quarter was higher than that in the same period last year.
In the first quarter of 2021, the growth rate of Maotai's revenue and net profit attributable to its parent company were 10.93% and 6.57% respectively. According to institutional research, at present, some dealers have completed payment in March. Based on the data of January and February, it is expected that the revenue growth rate of Maotai in the first quarter is expected to be close to 20%.
The relatively strong market demand during the Spring Festival is the main reason why Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) achieved 20% performance growth in the first two months.
During the Spring Festival this year, labor and Spring Festival banquets in some parts of China were suppressed, and Baijiu consumption in many areas was shrinking. However, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) as a representative of high-end liquor, still maintains a relatively strong demand.
The feedback data of Baijiu Province, such as Henan and Jiangsu, show that Moutai's stock is close to zero during the Spring Festival, and the wholesale and loose bottles are also strong.
product structure adjustment gain performance
A fund manager who has been following Maotai for a long time told the 21st Century Business Herald that Feitian Maotai, the core product of Maotai, is still the single product with the largest contribution to the company's performance from January to February. Since the beginning of the year, the market situation of Feitian Maotai in short supply has not changed.
According to the media monitoring data from Baijiu, the market price of Feitian bulk bottle has risen from 2745 yuan / bottle in January 1st to 2770 yuan / bottle in today's (March 8th).
In addition to the stable contribution of Feitian Maotai, the performance growth of Maotai in January and February also benefited from the adjustment of the company's product structure in recent months.
Since December 2021, Maotai has successively released super high-end Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor (treasures) and a variety of Chinese Zodiac liquor in the year of the tiger; On January 1 this year, Maotai raised the price of two products, the new rare Maotai liquor and the aged Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor 15; On January 18, Maotai launched a new one thousand yuan item Maotai 1935 on the basis of the original Zunyi 1935.
According to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) calculation, Maotai non-standard products contributed more than 10% of the revenue growth from January to February; Superimposed with the increment of Maotai 1935, Maotai series liquor contributed more than 5% to the revenue growth from January to February.
Among them, Maotai 1935, which complements the company's 1000 yuan price band, is particularly valued by the market. At present, this product enjoys the same premium as Feitian Maotai, and the market price exceeds the guidance price.
The agency predicts that the amount of Maotai 1935 is expected to reach 20 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) tons in 2022. If calculated according to 3000 tons, this single product is expected to contribute more than 4 billion revenue in the whole year.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Ye Qianyu believes that the improvement of Maotai product structure plays an obvious role in promoting the profit margin. According to its estimation, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company from Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 1-february is about 50.5%, which is higher than that in 2021 (47.7%).
it is unclear whether will be disclosed normally in the future
Since Ding Xiongjun took over as chairman of Maotai in September 2021, the marketization process of Maotai has been significantly accelerated. From the lifting of the "unpacking order" to the adjustment of the product and price system, and then to the expansion of production capacity, Maotai has been releasing a strong reform signal to the market.
At the second workers' Congress of the sixth Maotai Group in mid January, Ding Xiongjun pointed out that it was Maotai's "key year of reform". At the meeting, Ding Xiong's five military lines of "blue, green, white, purple and red" showed the outside world the "five line development path" of Maotai's high-quality development in the new era.
Among them, the blue line outlines the goal, vision and blueprint of Maotai. Ding Xiongjun said that we should focus on "double consolidation and double building", that is, "consolidate the status of China's Chinese Baijiu head leading enterprise and the status of the world's first brand of distilled liquor, and become the strategic goal of the first 500 phalanx enterprises in China and the first 500 world top enterprises in the province".
The release of monthly operating data for the first time can also be regarded as a major reform move of Maotai at the level of listed enterprises. For whether the company will make regular disclosure in the future, Maotai told reporters on March 8 that since the monthly business data are voluntary disclosure information, it is uncertain whether they will be released regularly in the future.
In January February, the most important month of the year, the dynamic sales achieved a higher than expected growth. This announcement of Maotai undoubtedly consolidated the foundation of its annual performance.
On March 8, a number of securities companies including Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) and Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) raised their profit forecasts for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) this year based on monthly data.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) raised the company's revenue forecast for 202223 to 123 billion yuan / 136.5 billion yuan (original forecast: 120.4 billion yuan / 1325 billion yuan), with a corresponding growth rate of 12.9% / 10.9% (original forecast: 10.4% / 10.0%); The forecast of attributable net profit for 202223 was raised to 59 billion yuan / 66.1 billion yuan (original forecast: 57.7 billion yuan / 63.9 billion yuan), with a corresponding growth rate of 13.3% / 12.0% (original forecast: 10.9% / 10.7%).
With the continuous decline of the sector since the beginning of the year, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) this initiative to disclose the "good start" performance has significantly boosted market sentiment.
In March 8th, the A share Baijiu sector (replaced by Wind Baijiu index) opened 2.84% higher, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) finally closed up 2.71%.
Baijiu performance still need earnings confirmation
Although Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 's expected business data helped the A Baijiu sector open in March 8th, Baijiu failed to escape the pessimistic market (stock index fell 2.35%, the worst this year), and eventually dropped 0.54%.
Since the beginning of March 8th, the Baijiu index has dropped by 16.15%. The Baijiu market has lost 23.25% of its market value in 54 trading days if it was calculated from the high level in December 15th last year.
Among them, the Baijiu sector only Huarun shares, a significant change in ownership structure Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) ( Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) .SH) achieved a rise (up 37.75%), the rest of the shares are all gone green.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) this announcement of super expected business data is the first heavy Baijiu good news this year. However, although it can lay a foundation for its annual performance, Moutai's super expected data is hard to become a "reassurance" for the whole Baijiu sector.
After all, Moutai's 1-2 month business data only reflect the pressure of the most high-end baijiu. Data from the channel have confirmed that the overall sales and consumption of Baijiu liquor are not as good as market expectations this year.
The fund manager told reporters that a monthly data from Moutai is not enough. The market needs Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ( Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) .SZ) and other Baijiu to produce similar "report card".
In this regard, on March 8, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and another liquor company Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) ( Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) . SH) both said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald that there was no plan to release monthly business data at present.
According to the channel research information, only some liquor enterprises showed high growth in the first quarter, and the industry did not generally exceed expectations China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) anyaze pointed out that it is expected that the overall dynamic sales will remain stable and weak in 1-2 months, and the delivery of wine enterprises and the transmission and landing of price increase of mainstream single products will still be affected.
In addition to the need for first quarter data to confirm growth, the relatively high value of Baijiu is also an important factor in the stock price tightening in the expectation of tighter liquidity this year. Today, even after nearly 3 months of continuous callback, Baijiu's current sector valuation still does not have outstanding configuration cost performance.
The data showed that the -TTM of Baijiu index was 39.88, and the historical quantile of the ten year period was 83.04% (that is, 83.04% of the historical period). The five year period's historical quantile was 66.02%.
However, it should be noted that after the current round of big drop in individual Baijiu enterprises, its valuation has dropped to the level of 2019. For example, the market value of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) march 8 corresponds to about 35.94 times of wind's consistent profit forecast valuation in 2022, and the market value of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) march 8 corresponds to about 22.79 times of 2022.
