Today (December 29), the three major A-share indexes opened up mixed, weakening rapidly at the beginning of the market, showing a pulsed downward pattern. The weakness can be seen at a glance, and the decline of the gem index is particularly obvious. From the disk point of view, the light index and heavy stocks are emerging again, led by military stocks, outstanding performance in medical devices, airports, salt lake lithium extraction and other sectors, and local profit-making effect still exists.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that the current medium-term fluctuation of the index remains unchanged, but the capital operation at the end of the year is cautious, the market sentiment tends to avoid risks, the plate rotation is more frequent, and the operation is difficult. You can choose an appropriate amount of participation in some subject stocks, and you still need to focus on the listed companies whose annual reports exceed expectations in the medium term.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] medical devices
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) said that the global pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity migrated to China, and China’s cdmo field grew rapidly. Covid-19 virus continues to mutate under the global epidemic, and the epidemic prevention and control in China is good, ensuring the continuous supply of manufacturing capacity. CXO, especially cdmo, has stronger stability in supply, undertaking delivery and quality. We believe that the signing of large orders by leading enterprises (such as small molecule covid-19 oral medicine) will occupy the production capacity, overflow some conventional orders to other cdmo enterprises, boost the industry performance in the short term and improve the industry status in the long term.
In the post epidemic era, there is a strong demand for medical infrastructure, and medical equipment infrastructure is the first force. Global basic public health construction is generally insufficient, and medical infrastructure planning in the post epidemic era has been put on the agenda. Since 2020, the issuance of medical related bonds in some provinces of China has accelerated the layout of China’s medical infrastructure. In addition, overseas countries represented by Spain, France and Italy have also launched corresponding new medical infrastructure schemes, which is expected to stimulate the demand of the medical device industry.
AVIC securities mentioned that based on the judgment of short-term fluctuation and repeated uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic situation, it can continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of covid-19 prevention and control industry chain in the short term, including covid-19 oral drugs, vaccines and antibodies, as well as the listed companies deeply involved in covid-19 prevention and control drug supply chain. At the same time, with the confirmation of the end of economic policy and the arrival of a new round of stable growth cycle, the trend of market consolidation and recovery has been established, and the market focus may focus on the sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the undervalued value with consumption attribute, and the growth and valuation of traditional Chinese medicine will dynamically match to a reasonable range in a period of time, At the time point when the valuation switching is gradually approaching, the advance layout needs to pay particular attention to the marginal improvement and the sustainability of growth. []
[Topic 2] Airport
Guosheng Securities pointed out that for the aviation industry, China’s epidemic situation is disturbed and maintains the recovery of dual structure. 1) General environment: in the second half of 2021, the epidemic situation in China repeated, affecting the demand for air travel, and the overseas epidemic continued. The global vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine is increasing. At present, the global per capita has been vaccinated with one dose of vaccine, and the vaccination rate in China will exceed 80% by the end of the year, laying a foundation for the establishment of mass immunization.
2) Market: from the Spring Festival to may, ask and RPK of the three major airlines in China recovered rapidly, exceeding the level in 2019 and reaching the peak growth rate after the epidemic. Although there was an epidemic later, the rebound was determined. The decline of ask narrowed from 44% in August to 6% in October, and the international line has not been expanded.
3) Airlines: private airlines recovered better than the three major airlines, reflecting the advantages of low cost and flexible operation. They made profits in Q2 spring and autumn, auspicious and China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) with good market, and only one in Q3 spring and autumn made profits. In terms of investment suggestions, travel may be affected during the local Chinese new year, the Winter Olympics and the two sessions in 2022, while Q3 is expected to usher in a double market resonance under less year-on-year pressure in the Chinese market and the expectation of opening up the international market. It is recommended to Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Air China Limited(601111) , and pay attention to Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) .
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that the main line of demand recovery under the controllable epidemic situation. As the overseas epidemic is still severe, in order to control the import of overseas epidemic, China still adopts “five ones” and “fuse” policies to control the number of international flights. With the promotion and popularization of vaccine research and development, the entry-exit restriction policy is expected to be liberalized, and the demand for air travel suppressed by the epidemic will be released. We judge that international and regional routes will be gradually restored by the end of 2022, Hong Kong and Macao airlines are expected to take the lead in opening up. With the popularization of vaccination and the gradual development of specific drugs, the impact of the epidemic is expected to be reduced, the suppressed demand for air travel will be released, and the airport sector has become the main line of demand recovery under the control of the epidemic. []
[Theme 3] national defense and military industry
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that at present, China is in a critical period of national defense modernization. The technology maturity of advanced fighters and missiles has been high. Military enterprises have greatly expanded their production to support the accelerated assembly of advanced equipment. From the perspective of capacity construction, at present, most of the capacity expansion plans in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the aviation manufacturing industry chain can fully reach the production capacity in the middle and later stage of the 14th five year plan. In the next two to three years, the industry will be in the stage of continuous investment of new capacity and accelerated release of performance. Some weapon and equipment models are accelerated, and more weapon and equipment models can be expected in the future. The industry fundamentals are expected to continue to improve. The configuration value of the military industry is prominent, and it is recommended to over configure the military industry.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that in the short term, the sector has the demand for the release of valuation risk, but the adjustment space is limited. At present, the valuation quantile of the military sector is about 60%, and the upper limit of valuation improvement is far from coming; In the medium term, with the continuous release of industrial capacity and downstream demand, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise; In the long run, the “Centennial goal of building the army” is nearly late, and the “Centennial change” is bound to accelerate the modernization process of our army, and the development of the industry can be expected. The “policy chain, value chain and industrial chain” drive together to build a strong engine for high-quality development of the military industry. It is recommended to optimize the track, select individual stocks from bottom to top, and recommend Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) , Guangdong Shenglu Telecommunication Tech.Co.Ltd(002446) and Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) .
Looking forward to 2022, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) judgment: 1) the production capacity of the military industry continues to expand. With the gradual release of new production capacity of many enterprises in the industry and the superposition of scale effect under the resonance of supply and demand, the sector is expected to enter a new development stage of accelerated release of profits and its performance is expected to continue to improve; 2) The high outlook of the industry is gradually reflected from the upstream to the middle and downstream along the industrial chain, and the downstream enterprises have entered a period of accelerated performance growth. 3) From the perspective of valuation, after 2022, compared with upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises have greater flexibility to digest valuation with high profit growth. []
[theme 4] lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that lithium prices continued to rise recently, while the performance of the secondary market was weak. In the retrospect of the last lithium price cycle, the stock price and fundamentals also deviated in the last cycle, and the performance realization is more critical. At the same time, the market is worried that the lithium sector is still biased towards the cyclical attribute, the high price is difficult to maintain, and the cyclical high profit cannot be valued.
The agency further analyzed that as the demand for new energy industry continues to improve next year, the lithium price center will maintain a high boom in 2022. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually forms consistent expectations for the price, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium plate is “volume” rather than “price”. In the dark moment, we are still firmly optimistic about the configuration value of lithium plate next year.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium resources has intensified, the lithium price has accelerated upward, the lithium price center has maintained a high level, and the plate value has become prominent. At the supply side, the production of salt lakes is reduced seasonally, the release of smelting capacity is also subject to ore, and there is little increase in global supply in the medium and short term; However, the demand side lithium battery production has increased month by month. Battery factories and midstream material factories prepared goods years ago. At the same time, the midstream and downstream expanded production and scale, amplifying the demand for the upstream; The inventory of all parties in the industry is low, the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, the spot price accelerates, the contract price of large manufacturers rises month by month, the price of individual orders jumps, and the lithium price center remains high with the support of supply and demand.
In terms of investment suggestions, focus on the leading industry segments with global competitiveness and high growth tracks represented by lithium iron phosphate and high nickel: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the links and companies that are still tight in supply and demand, can obtain excess profits of the industrial chain and continue to expand: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) . []
