Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: “policy chain, value chain and industrial chain” Qi drive jointly build a strong engine for high-quality development of military industry
First, policy chain: Policy Dongfeng lays the “great era” of military industry. We believe that “state-owned enterprise reform” is expected to become one of the important main lines of military industry sector investment in 2022, and the valuation system may be reshaped.
Second, value chain: the military industry continues to have a high outlook, and equity incentive brings incremental value. In recent years, the number of military enterprises implementing equity incentive has increased significantly, and the process of equity incentive has accelerated. Equity incentive can be used as a follow-up or normalized corporate governance tool to help improve the operating efficiency of enterprises, and then enhance the overall value of the company.
Third, industrial chain: the supply side capacity continues to climb, and the demand side “price for quantity” has become the general trend. Thus, the three chains build a strong engine, and this year’s flower is better than last year’s red. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the national defense industry will focus on the fields of “war preparation needs”, and aviation (including engines and UAVs), missile industry chain, Beidou tertiary industry chain and new materials will benefit significantly.
From the perspective of investment strategy, in the short term, the sector has the demand for the release of valuation risk, but the adjustment space is limited. At present, the valuation quantile of the military industry sector is about 60%, and the upper limit of valuation improvement is far from coming; In the medium term, with the continuous release of industrial capacity and downstream demand, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise; In the long run, the “Centennial goal of building the army” is nearly late, and the “Centennial change” is bound to accelerate the modernization process of our army, and the development of the industry can be expected. The “policy chain, value chain and industrial chain” drive together to build a strong engine for high-quality development of the military industry. It is recommended to optimize the track, select individual stocks from bottom to top, and recommend Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) , Guangdong Shenglu Telecommunication Tech.Co.Ltd(002446) and Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) . []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : military investment has entered the golden age ! focus on five investment directions
With the expansion of production capacity and the resonance of supply and demand, military investment has entered a golden age. Looking forward to 2022, we judge that: 1) the capacity of the military industry continues to expand. With the gradual release of new capacity of many enterprises in the industry and the superposition of scale effect under the resonance of supply and demand, the sector is expected to enter a new development stage of accelerated release of profits and its performance is expected to continue to improve; 2) The high outlook of the industry is gradually reflected from the upstream to the middle and downstream along the industrial chain, and the downstream enterprises have entered a period of accelerated performance growth. 3) From the perspective of valuation, after 2022, compared with upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises have greater flexibility to digest valuation with high profit growth.
Focus on five investment directions. 1) Military aircraft: air control is very important in modern war. Many models enter the batch production period, focusing on Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , etc; 2) Aeroengine: Changpo thick snow high-quality track, pay attention to Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) etc; 3) Materials and forging and casting: a generation of materials and equipment. Forging and casting is the key link of equipment production. Pay attention to Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Western Metal Materials Co.Ltd(002149) ; Triangle service, Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , Anhui Shenjian New Materials Co.Ltd(002361) etc; 4) Missiles: the combat readiness level has been continuously improved, and the demand for war training consumption and replenishment has increased. Pay attention to Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) , North Navigation Control Technology Co.Ltd(600435) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) ; 5) Informatization: informatization is a multiplier of combat power. All countries have made great efforts to pay attention to China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Zhejiang Dali Technology Co.Ltd(002214) , Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) , Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(688311) , Beijing Starneto Technology Co.Ltd(002829) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) . []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the reform dividend of state-owned enterprises is expected to accelerate the release pay attention to the reform and investment opportunities of military central enterprises
The industry fundamentals are expected to continue to improve, and the configuration value of the military industry is prominent. At present, China is in a critical period of national defense modernization. The technology maturity of advanced fighters and missiles has been high. Military enterprises have greatly expanded their production and supported the accelerated assembly of advanced equipment. From the perspective of capacity construction, at present, most of the capacity expansion plans in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the aviation manufacturing industry chain can fully reach the production capacity in the middle and later stage of the 14th five year plan. In the next two to three years, the industry will be in the stage of continuous investment of new capacity and accelerated release of performance. Some weapon and equipment models are accelerated, and more weapon and equipment models can be expected in the future. The industry fundamentals are expected to continue to improve. The configuration value of the military industry is prominent, and it is recommended to over configure the military industry.
The dividend of state-owned enterprise reform is expected to accelerate the release, and attention is paid to the reform and investment opportunities of military central enterprises. On December 18, the SASAC held a meeting of the heads of central enterprises, emphasizing that next year’s “four profits and two rates” should strive to achieve “two increases, one control and three improvements”, “volume increase” means that the growth rate of total profit and net profit is higher than that of the national economy, “one control” means to control the asset liability ratio, “three improvements” means that the operating profit margin, total labor productivity and R & D investment will be further improved. The “three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform” is about to enter the year of the big test, and the reform dividend is expected to be accelerated. The mixed reform of state-owned military enterprises is an important part of the reform of state-owned enterprises. It is suggested to focus on the equity incentive and high-quality asset injection investment opportunities of military state-owned enterprises. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the military industry has a long-term sustained growth maintained or improved by the valuation center
The military industry has long-term sustained growth under the maintenance or improvement of the valuation center, and is a standard Changpo thick snow track. Therefore, we believe that the comparable direction that also takes into account the characteristics of growth sustainability, national long-term strategic matching, expected stable and positive expansion is the new energy track of the same advanced manufacturing industry, such as lithium battery, photovoltaic, etc, At present, there is no obvious bubble in the valuation of military industry.
In terms of the direction of concern, first, the aero-engine industry chain: opportunities for supply pattern change brought by capacity bottleneck breakthrough and large-scale production of new models, superimposed large-scale production and scale effect: the aero-engine industry chain is at the early stage of large-scale production, which is characterized by downstream capacity being limited by the middle and upper reaches, and solving the bottleneck problem through outsourcing manufacturing through general supporting and important supporting facilities. Host – Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; Ring forging – Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) ; Precision manufacturing of cast superalloys and key aviation engine parts: Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) ; Wrought Superalloys – Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Titanium profile – Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) .
Second, missile + Information Industry: 2021 is only the first year of the new model. Pay attention to component enterprises – Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) ; Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) ； Radar guidance – Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) ; Nuclear – Guoguang Electric Co.Ltd.Chengdu(688776) .
Third, state-owned enterprise reform: 2022 is the end of the three-year state-owned enterprise reform action. It is suggested to pay attention to the increase of profit growth and the significant improvement of cash flow. It is expected to benefit from the targets of state-owned enterprise reform: Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Chengdu Spaceon Electronics Co.Ltd(002935) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) . []
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the military industry sector has entered a new era of value investment long term investment value highlights
The military industry sector has entered a new era of value investment, with prominent long-term investment value. In the current international environment, the demand for military products is in the initial stage of outbreak, the performance growth potential of high-quality enterprises is huge, and the investment in the military industry sector has entered a new era of value investment. Although based on historical inertia, the military industry sector still has certain advantages β However, excluding the short-term fluctuation disturbance, the long-term investment value of the industry highlights.
The current valuation of the military industry sector is attractive. Except for the main engine plant, the valuation of the company is low. In the current valuation, the valuation of the main engine plant is high, raising the overall industry valuation. Except for the main engine plant, the current valuation of other companies with investment value is relatively reasonable. The performance of the sector continues to grow and digest the valuation. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we estimate that the performance of the sector will maintain a compound annual growth rate of more than 20%, and the growth will continue to digest the valuation. The year-end valuation is switched, and the dynamic PE in 2022 is lower. At present, it is in an important period of year-end valuation switching. The corresponding P / E ratio of the military industry sector has decreased significantly in 2022, and the current valuation is very attractive. []
Capital Securities: grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment independent and controllable growth of military electronics
Optimistic about the dual-use market space of the aviation industry chain. There is a large demand gap for train loading in the military aircraft market. The development of China’s aviation industry has been driven by military demand for a long time. With the expansion of China’s commercial aircraft market, domestic large aircraft and related supporting space are expected to be opened. As the “pearl on the crown of modern industry”, China’s military aeroengine started earlier, the research and development of commercial turbofan engine continues to advance, and the wave of speed-up of localization is coming. Aeroengine forging has high technical and financial barriers, accounting for a high value of the whole engine. Private enterprises are rising rapidly in this field and their market share is expanding. Some enterprises have supplied to international aeroengine giants. Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) has signed long-term agreements with major international aero-engine manufacturers such as GE, Pratt Whitney, Safran, RORO, Honeywell and MTU, and the forgings have been applied to a variety of domestic aero-engines in pre research, in research and in service; Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) signed long-term agreements with Luo Luo and Ge aviation for 11 and 5 years respectively this year. Military and civilian demand continues to release, and the aviation engine forging industry is expected to continue its high growth.
Grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, and the independent and controllable growth of military electronics is high: 1) the contract liabilities of the main engine factory + verification of advance receipts, and the growth of the aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the engine body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material plate, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The OEM pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; Body system concerns Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) . 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from practical military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Chengdu Corpro Technology Co.Ltd(300101) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) . []
Dongguan Securities: the military industry sector, as a key counter cyclical sector the industry as a whole is good and has high certainty
In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated, and the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving our military strength can we better deal with the increasingly complex world situation; The new variant virus has increased global uncertainty. As a key counter cyclical plate, the military industry plate is less affected by global economic events, and the industry as a whole is better and more certain.
Optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the “14th five year plan” period, as well as the expectation of capital return under the acceleration of domestic substitution, optimistic about the aviation industry chain; On the other hand, we are optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under the Internet of things and the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform. Target suggestions and concerns: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , etc. []
AVIC Securities: focus on five directions! Listed companies related to aviation equipment industry chain are expected to continue to benefit
It is suggested to focus on five directions: first, military aircraft: the growth rate of China’s aviation equipment is expected to remain high, and the listed companies related to the aviation equipment industry chain are expected to continue to benefit.
Second, missiles: whether it is China or military trade, the demand for information ammunition with consumable attributes such as missiles, guided bombs and guided rockets is expected to show a rapid growth trend, and will continue to fulfill the performance of relevant listed companies in the industrial chain in the future.
Third, Beidou: the deployment of Beidou constellation 3 is completed, and the industries of “Beidou +” and “+ Beidou” are integrated and upgraded. At present, the construction of the Beidou space segment has been completed, and satellite applications have begun to expand rapidly to the civil field. The Beidou application industry is expected to show a high-profile development during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which deserves special attention.
Fourth, Satellite Internet: included in the “new infrastructure”, it is expected to become a key development area in the 14th five year plan. The deployment of China’s LEO Satellite Internet constellation lags behind that of foreign countries. There is an urgent need to accelerate the construction of LEO Satellite Internet space infrastructure to occupy frequency and orbit, and the application of high orbit satellite Internet in the field of aviation Internet and marine Internet is also expected to be expanded. In the long run, Satellite Internet is expected to become a key development area during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Fifth, military electronics: at present, there is a problem of “short card control” in the military industry, and independent control is particularly critical. At the same time, national defense informatization is expected to speed up during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which will drive the high-profile development of military electronics. []
