As a new thing in the mature mobile phone industry, the birth of folding screen mobile phones in 2019 and the competition market from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022 may pave the way for whether they can stand firm. Market players may be exploring whether this track is feasible and worth entering on a large scale?
Now we can see from the continuation of the current situation of "one machine is difficult to find" in the market and the admission of all mainstream players except apple. The folding screen mobile phone has gained a firm foothold. In the future, it will compete with ordinary smart phones in the smart phone market as a new form of products. At the same time, the industry is bound to show explosive growth in the next few years.
But who can win the C position of folding screen mobile phones in the future remains to be verified. In the process of launching 5g mobile phones, apple is also the last company among mainstream players to launch 5g mobile phones.
mainstream players have all entered
On March 7, vivo, which has always been conservative and stable and was not optimistic about the folding screen mobile phone market, exposed its new trend in the field of folding screen mobile phones. It will release its first folding screen mobile phone x fold next month, with the internal code of "Butterfly".
The day before that, Jia Jingdong, vice president of vivo brand, said in the microblog spoiler that his high-end product series nex series would be incorporated into X series. Nex series products would be carried by X series, and made it clear that the new machine would be released soon.
What Jia Jingdong said has two meanings. One is that vivo's first folding screen mobile phone is about to be launched. The other is that vivo has determined to deeply cultivate the folding screen mobile phone track and will iteratively promote the folding screen mobile phone as a long-term series of products.
So far, the world's mainstream mobile phone players, only apple is absent from folding screen mobile phones. Before that, Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, oppo and glory have all entered the folding screen mobile phone track, and generally launched their own new folding screen mobile phones from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022. Some are their first folding screen mobile phones, such as oppo's findn and glory Magic V, and some are new generation folding screen mobile phones, such as Huawei's vertical folding screen mobile phone P50 pocket
As for apple, at the end of February this year, DSCC analysts, a screen supply chain consulting company, predicted that Apple's folding screen iPhone would be shipped two years later than originally planned. According to this calculation, Apple's folding screen mobile phone may be available in 2025. According to the investigation, apple applied for a folding screen patent as early as July 2020. After the patent was approved in November of that year, its description showed that its device was a "foldable device", and there was no other introduction information.
It is worth mentioning that Apple has also been late in launching 5g mobile phones, lagging behind other mainstream mobile phone manufacturers in the world, but the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series 5g mobile phones in the back market are still very popular after they are launched.
folding screen mobile phone track has been clarified
After nearly two years of market cultivation, mainstream players have launched folding screen mobile phone products from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. However, although the market shipment has increased significantly compared with the past, and there have been significant breakthroughs in product form, user experience and price, there are still some divergent opinions in the market, such as that the application scenarios of folding screen mobile phones need to be enriched There are obvious pain points in weight and thickness, the practicability has not been recognized by the public, and the power consumption is large.
However, from the perspective of all walks of life recently, the industry generally believes that folding screen mobile phones, as a new thing, still need to be improved. There is no doubt, but the development trend of continuous growth and competition with ordinary smart phones has been determined.
At the world mobile communication conference held last week, glory CEO Zhao Ming said that both ordinary mobile phones and folding screen mobile phones will become the mainstream of smart phones. The folding screen mobile phone market can grow 10 times in 2022, this will be a new growth field, and glory must invest in the future.
Cinno research analysts also told the securities times that in addition to apple, mainstream smartphone brands will gather in the folding screen mobile phone camp in 2022, and the folding screen mobile phone market will become another important track for flexible AMOLED in 2022. In addition, in the past two years, China's folding mobile phones have focused on solving the problems of product folding, weight, application and other experience. With the maturity of supply chain technology and the decline of product cost, the scale of folding screen mobile phones will grow rapidly in the next two to three years, driving the increase in the demand for special front cover materials.
As a trendsetter in the field of folding screen mobile phones, Huawei's every move also reflects the company's view of this track. At the end of last year, after oppo announced high-profile that it would launch its first folding screen mobile phone, Huawei quickly announced that it would launch its first vertical folding screen mobile phone in the near future. After recent actions in the field of folding screen mobile phones by vivo, glory and other manufacturers, Huawei did not remain silent and released the news that it would release a new folding screen mobile phone mate X3 later this year, It shows that Huawei is optimistic about the folding screen mobile phone track and does not expect to lose folding screen mobile phone customers due to chip problems. In October 2019, Huawei launched its first folding screen mobile phone Huawei mate x, and then iterated over mate XS, mate X2, P50 pocket, etc.
In terms of market share, according to the latest survey data of sigmaintell, the global shipment scale of foldable smart phones in 2021 was about 7.21 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 171.9%. Among them, the shipment volume of Samsung folding screen mobile phones was 5.8 million, with a market share of 81%; Huawei shipped 1 million units, accounting for 13.9%; Millet shipments were 200000, accounting for 2.7%. Qunxi consulting predicts that the global shipment scale of foldable smart phones will reach about 14.4 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 99.6%, and it is expected to exceed 70 million in 2025.
The trend of mobile phone industry chain investment in the outside world is further confirmed. On February 17, Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) issued a plan for convertible bonds, which plans to issue no more than 600 million yuan of convertible bonds to indefinite special objects. The net amount raised will be used for new high-precision and high-performance transmission system component production projects, MIM (metal injection molding) production line intelligent information upgrading projects and supplementary working capital Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) said that the company plans to strengthen the research on precision transmission components, keep up with the development trend of mobile phone folding screen and meet the new demand of consumer electronics industry for transmission components.
In addition, from the perspective of market demand, although the style and supply of folding screen mobile phones in the market have increased significantly since the end of last year, it is still difficult to meet the strong market demand. It is understood that "one machine is difficult to find" and "pre-sale is full" are still the general status quo of the front-end sales, and most mobile phones are purchased at an increased price.
"Up to now, Magic V is out of stock, and we have to wait 15 to 30 days to get it. We see the potential pain points of users, that is, we need to make the folding screen lighter, thinner, longer battery life and so on." Zhao Ming, CEO of glory, said recently.
utg cover sector market scale will continue to increase
From the long river of history, every industry and every type of product has always experienced an interesting cycle. In the era of functional machines, mobile phones emphasized personalization, and products of different forms were the competitive state at that time. Later, in the era of smart phones, chip, screen, camera and other configurations gradually became the factors of purchase. Over and over again, the mobile phone market has also experienced a cycle in the past one or two years.
At present, when the general chip configuration and imaging capability tend to be similar and similar to the experience, the change of appearance and form has re entered the public's vision, becoming an important element of market competition, and even a link defining the low, medium and high-end mobile phone market.
Young people need to be personalized, and high-end people also need to be outstanding. Based on the cognition of "harmony but difference", folding screen mobile phones have become an indispensable weapon for mobile phone brands to enter the high-end market. At present, in this market segment, Huawei, Samsung, Xiaomi and other mobile phone brands are investing heavily in the layout and seeking more perfect technical solutions to solve the pain points of folding screen mobile phones in mass production and use experience, such as screen creases and durability.
It is worth noting that at present, the front cover materials of folding screen mobile phones mainly include CPI (colorless polyimide) and UTG (ultra-thin glass), which is also the key to solve the problem of screen crease. As an inorganic material, UTG has obvious advantages in improving the crease of folding screen. Therefore, colorless polyimide (CPI) is the first choice of folding cover in 2019. However, since 2020, all brands have begun to pay more attention to ultra-thin glass (UTG). Samsung Galaxy Z flip is the first folding screen product equipped with UTG.
According to cinno research, the front cover of China's top 5 brand folding mobile phones carried a total of about 1158000 in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 124%. Among them, Huawei currently sells folding mobile phones with only CPI front cover, ranking first; The total carrying capacity of Samsung folding mobile phone front cover ranks second, mainly UTG front cover; Xiaomi folding mobile phone ranks third with the mix fold model equipped with UTG front cover.
Judging from the current market trend, the front cover of Samsung smart machine with folding screen has been changed from CPI to UTG. In 2021, although the CPI carrying capacity of the front cover far exceeds the UTG carrying capacity, the quarterly growth trend of the UTG carrying capacity of the front cover is relatively more stable. It can be seen that many manufacturers have actively promoted the large-scale mass production of UTG cover sectors and entered a relatively mature stage.
Cinno research believes that as the cover material of folding screen, UTG is more likely to become the mainstream of the market. With the gradual increase of technical reserves and supply chain layout by Chinese external cover manufacturers, the market scale of UTG cover will continue to increase. It is estimated that the UTG carrying capacity of China's folding mobile phone front cover will be about 1.1 million in 2022, will continue to grow to nearly 5 million in 2025, and the CAGR from 2022 to 2025 will be about 65%.
The reporter learned that at present, the main raw materials suppliers of UTG are Schott group of Germany and Corning company of the United States. Chinese UTG cover sector processing enterprises such as Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) have strong and formed mass production capacity, but there are no mass-produced products at present. Recently, Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) said on the interactive easy platform that the currently released folding screen mobile phones are equipped with CPI and UTG, and the UTG is imported Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) has established a good cooperative relationship with terminal manufacturers and hopes to see the listing of folding screen mobile phones equipped with domestic UTG as soon as possible.
