Recently, under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the market has intensified concerns about nickel supply. Under the condition of low inventory, the capital is short, and the external nickel price has experienced an extreme surge in the past two days.
It is understood that at present, the largest increase in nickel demand in the global market comes from new energy vehicles. As an important raw material for lithium batteries, the sharp rise in nickel prices has raised concerns about the heavy cost pressure on the new energy industry. After the sharp rise in the past two years, the new energy vehicle sector has a high weight in a shares. The fluctuation of stock prices of leading new energy vehicle industries such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and others can often have a great impact on the market.
However, just a month ago, some institutions were still optimistic about the market of the new energy vehicle industry chain this year. At an investment strategy meeting nearly 20 days ago, Zeng duohong, CO director of Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) Research Institute and chief of new power industry, said in her speech that she was optimistic about the investment opportunities of lithium battery industry chains in 2022 and set the target price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) at 905.8 yuan, which was also the highest target price given by various securities companies since last year. However, as of yesterday's closing, the share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was 455.45 yuan, only half of the target price; It once fell to 443 yuan.
Lun nickel prices suddenly showed an abnormal surge
In the last two days, the nickel price of LME (London Metal Exchange) rose abnormally, which affected the nerves of the market.
On March 7, the price of nickel in LME rose by more than 70% and closed above US $50000 / ton. On March 8, LME nickel hit the $100000 / ton mark at one time, with a maximum increase of nearly 110% within the day. However, after 2 p.m., the nickel price in LME period once plunged rapidly. After 4 p.m., LME announced the suspension of nickel trading at least for the rest of Tuesday.
In the A-share market, the subjects benefiting from the sharp rise in nickel price, such as Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) , have risen to varying degrees in recent trading days.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) metals team recently released the view that at present, the global output of nickel ore is 2.7 million tons, and that of Russia is 250000 tons, accounting for 9%. Russia's export volume in 2021 was 45400 tons, mainly exported to Europe and the United States.
The largest increase in global demand for nickel comes from the consumption of new energy vehicles. A single car needs nickel sulfate with an average nickel content of 60 kg, that is, there is a demand of about Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of nickel per 10 million electric vehicles. Since April 2021, LME nickel inventory has continued to decline, from 260000 tons to 77000 tons on March 7, 2022.
In view of the sharp rise in nickel prices in the past two days, the nonferrous team of Huachuang Securities believes that there are three main reasons. First, on the premise of extremely low inventory: as of March 4, the global inventory of electrolytic nickel was 81300 tons. The inventory has decreased all the way from 500000 tons in 2016 and is currently the lowest inventory since LME nickel was listed in 2010; Second, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is the catalyst: in 2021, Russia's nickel output was 115000 tons, accounting for 11.52% of the global total output of 998600 tons, most of which were supplied to China and Europe. Although it was not sanctioned, traders fed back that it was difficult to open letters of credit, indicating that there were problems in short-term exports; Third, the rumored capital squeeze is the fuse.
Minsheng securities metal team recently said that Russia's nickel production capacity is about 230000 tons, accounting for 9% of the world, but accounting for about 25% of electrolytic nickel production capacity. Since electrolytic nickel is the designated delivery product of LME and the exchange in the previous period, if Russian nickel is sanctioned, electrolytic nickel will be further in short supply. Under the current background of low inventory, nickel price elasticity has increased significantly.
The nonferrous team of Huachuang Securities believes that the rumors of the above capital squeeze have a certain credibility. An enterprise in Wenzhou has been operating on a large scale in futures and earned money from traders such as Glencore that year. At the same time, there is a commercial logic to short nickel before, because the supply of ferronickel intermediate products is still increasing at a high speed, and it is the unanimous expectation of the market that there will be surplus in the second half of the nickel market (electrolytic nickel + ferronickel + intermediate products). It is the normal commercial logic for enterprises to preserve their value in advance. However, the problem is that the supply of nickel is still tight in the first half of the year, especially the shortage of intermediate products leads to the sharp contradiction of electrolytic nickel. At the same time, LME can only deliver electrolytic nickel, while an enterprise in Wenzhou does not produce electrolytic nickel, and hedging failure becomes speculation. In addition, compared with the trend of aluminum price, it is affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine and low inventory, but the increase of aluminum price is far less than that of nickel, indicating that the capital behavior has a great impact.
new energy vehicle industry chain dragged down
Miss Wu, an investor, told the daily economic news the day before yesterday that she recently found that investors in her circle of friends have paid more attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Some investors believe that the recent decline in the A-share market has something to do with the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
The new energy vehicle industry chain represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has been falling one after another recently. Affected by the continuous decline of the largest heavyweight Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) stock, the gem index has fallen continuously recently, with a decline of 4.3% the day before yesterday and 1.8% yesterday.
As an important raw material for lithium batteries, the soaring price of nickel has raised concerns that the new energy industry may be unable to bear the pressure of high costs, which is also one of the main reasons for the continuous decline of the new energy vehicle sector recently.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) Dianxin team recently released a view that the current lithium related to electric vehicles (has exceeded 500000 yuan / ton), nickel (ternary cathode) and aluminum (structural parts and components) are at historic highs. The recent sharp rise in nickel prices has exacerbated the market panic about the new energy vehicle sector.
In addition, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) Dianxin team believes that the biggest problem in the new energy vehicle sector is the expected instability, the lithium price has not seen a high point, and the investment lacks a sense of security. At the same time, the market also has some concerns about terminal demand.
However, according to the reporter's observation, just a month ago, some institutions were still optimistic about the market of the new energy vehicle industry chain this year. At an investment strategy meeting nearly 20 days ago, Zeng duohong, CO director of Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) Research Institute and chief of new power industry, said in her speech that she was optimistic about the investment opportunities of lithium battery industry chains in 2022, and set the target price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) at 905.8 yuan, which was also the highest target price given by various securities dealers since last year. However, as of yesterday's closing, the share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was only about half of the target price (455.45 yuan).
